Just a word of warning - I'm not suggesting any FA/player/manager should/will/are prone to lose matches on purpose. This is just an analysis. I'm very much against match fixing.
Did you know each European FA qualified for EURO 2016 got 8 million Euros from UEFA? Not bad, eh? Of course, there's also the achievement of being at a final tournament and all that warm and fuzzy feeling. It's quite nice to qualify.
Showing posts with label uefa coefficient. Show all posts
Showing posts with label uefa coefficient. Show all posts
Friday, July 14, 2017
Friday, September 11, 2015
EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (11 September 2015)
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 September 2015.
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
Friday, July 24, 2015
EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (24 July 2015)
Finally found the time to for this.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
Friday, July 3, 2015
EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (3 July 2015)
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
Friday, April 17, 2015
EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (17 April 2015)
Long overdue post. And it's quite long.
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 15 April 2015.
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 15 April 2015.
Best 3rd most like to come out of group:
Friday, November 28, 2014
EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (28 November 2014)
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
Friday, October 24, 2014
EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (24 October 2014)
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
Friday, September 19, 2014
EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (19 September 2014)
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.
Friday, September 5, 2014
EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (5 September 2014)
Updated to include the 10000 points - thanks Ed.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
I've already included the 2016 campaign. That's why for instance Germany have only 31135 points.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:
UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%
I've already included the 2016 campaign. That's why for instance Germany have only 31135 points.
Friday, January 17, 2014
UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding info
There have been some changes in the coefficient calculation as noticed by Ed and peeotreck.
First of all the bonus point were tweaked. Second, the calculation for national associations that have hosted a final tournament in the reference period was changed.
In the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.
First of all the bonus point were tweaked. Second, the calculation for national associations that have hosted a final tournament in the reference period was changed.
In the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.
Friday, December 6, 2013
UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying format officially confirmed
Not by UEFA, but by the Romanian FA.
Original article in Romanian. Main points below.
Assuming all 53 FAs will participate - there will be 8 groups of 6 teams and one of 5 teams.
The teams will be split in 6 pots according to the UEFA coefficient. This list doesn't appear in the FRF article, is based on my calculations.
Original article in Romanian. Main points below.
Assuming all 53 FAs will participate - there will be 8 groups of 6 teams and one of 5 teams.
The teams will be split in 6 pots according to the UEFA coefficient. This list doesn't appear in the FRF article, is based on my calculations.
Friday, November 22, 2013
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (22 November 2013)
This is the final ranking that will be used for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw. It will take place in Nice on 23 February 2014.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
Friday, October 25, 2013
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (25 October 2013)
Next update: November 2013.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
Friday, September 20, 2013
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (20 September 2013)
Next update: October 2013.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
Friday, June 14, 2013
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (14 June 2013)
Next update: August / September 2013.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
Friday, March 29, 2013
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (29 March 2013)
Next update: March / April 2013.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
Friday, February 1, 2013
EURO 2016 pots: Points needed to stay in current pot
In November 2012 I posted a list with the points needed to climb to the next pot (e.g. from pot 3 from pot 2) for the EURO 2016 preliminary draw.
Håkon asked me for a list with the points needed to stay in the current pot. Here it is.
Rank
Team
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a no play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a no play-off scenario
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a play-off scenario
Håkon asked me for a list with the points needed to stay in the current pot. Here it is.
Rank
Team
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a no play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a no play-off scenario
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a play-off scenario
Friday, November 23, 2012
EURO 2016 pots: How many points does my team need?
A Romanian journalist asked me two weeks ago how many wins does Romania need to climb in the second pot for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw.
Taking the EURO 2012 pots as a guide line (removing France and adding Poland and Ukraine), these are the thresholds:
Pot 1: 31268
Pot 2: 28133
Pot 3: 24381
Pot 4: 19409
Pot 5: 14730
Taking the EURO 2012 pots as a guide line (removing France and adding Poland and Ukraine), these are the thresholds:
Pot 1: 31268
Pot 2: 28133
Pot 3: 24381
Pot 4: 19409
Pot 5: 14730
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (23 November 2012)
Next update: March / April 2013.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
France will host the final tournament.
The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
Friday, October 19, 2012
EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (19 October 2012)
Next update: November 2012.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
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