AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2019)

The match days three and four of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (October 2019)

The matchdays seven and eight in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here, here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March), MD4 (June) and MD6 (September).

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (September 2019)

The first two match days of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (11 September 2019)

The matchdays five and six in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March) and MD4 (June).

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month also starts the African qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar with a first round, consisting of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams. The draw was July 29th.
The fourteen winners join the other 26 African teams to form 10 groups of 4 teams in the second round, a double round robin group stage. First matchdays of the second round will be in the March-window next year. The exact date for the draw of the group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the December 2019 ranking will be used for seeding the draw for the group stage.

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month starts the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. After a first round of 6 play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked Asian teams in June, the six winners joined the other 34 Asian teams to form 8 groups of 5 teams in this second round, a double round robin group stage. The groups were drawn on July 17th.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (12 June 2019)

The matchdays three and four in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

2019 CAF Nations Cup: 10000 simulations

Next month the last match day of qualifying for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 (Egypt this Summer) will be played. Already 14 teams are qualified, another 10 berths to play for. Here are the results of 10000 simulations of this match day. The results will also determine the seeding for the draw of the final tournament, based on the CAF NT ranking. 

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (22 december 2018)

The format of the Asian qualification for the next World Cup is not yet known in detail. Looking at the AFC match calendar for the coming years it seems that the format will be the same as for the previous World Cup:

• 1st round: play-offs played in June 2019 (2 MD);
• 2nd round: group stage played from September 2019 until June 2020 (10 MD);
• 3rd round: another group stage played from September 2020 until October 2021 (10 MD);
• 4th round: play-off to determine the AFC number 5 played in November 2021 (2 MD).

Intercontinental play-offs will probably be played in 2022.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (10 december 2018)

The ten qualification groups for EURO 2020 were drawn last week. Now it's possible to simulate the complete match schedule, including the play-offs in March 2020 for the last 4 spots at the EURO's. These play-offs are a second chance for the group winners of the Nations League if they can't qualify directly by finishing first or second in their qualification group.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Matchdays 3 and 4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Here is an update after MD3 and MD4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (15 September 2018)

The first two matchdays in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (15 september 2018)

Here is an update after MD1 and MD2 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.
The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.

2022 FIFA World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF

For the 2018 qualifiers, CONCACAF chose to seed the teams using the August 2014 FIFA ranking. Should they use the same approach, we're looking at the August 2018 edition. We're already in the last time frame (most recent 12 months).

Scheduled matches (including World Cup and play-offs) included as defeats.

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (6 October 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the third match day (5 September 2017). Kyrgyz Republic bounce back and replace Myanmar in the list of teams most likely to qualify.