FIFA Ranking: January 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 January.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: January 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the January 2018 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: January 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 January.

20 matches left - most of them part of the Gulf Cup of Nations, a friendly and four group stage matches of the CHAN final tournament.

Also check the probable ranking.

FIFA Ranking: December 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 21 December. 2 friendlies left - part of the East Asian championship.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

2018 FIFA World Cup simulations

100000 simulations. For the impact of the draw, see here.

First the average group stage points.

2018 World Cup: Impact of the draw

Simulations using the actual draw can be found here.

I've simulated 100000 times the draw and the whole tournament.

Here's how the draw changed the probabilities of advancing out of the group stage:

2018 World Cup draw: What I would have liked to see

I think I've mentioned this before, but I'm getting old and I'm allowed to say things over and over. Getting plenty of practice with my kids :)

Long time ago - about 8 or 9 years ago perhaps - my blog didn't have a custom domain and its name was "Uninteresting things" (of course, in Romanian). This is one of those posts, so feel free to skip it.

FIFA Ranking: November 2017 final preview

One match left: Fiji - Estonia. The visitors can't stop collecting flags.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 November. India vs. Macau was not included in the October calculation, but I expect it to be included in the November edition.

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

FIFA Ranking: October 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 16 October.

No matches left.

Official UEFA Nations League seeding

More info in this UEFA.com article. Draw will take place on 24 January 2018.

Looking at the last simulations, there were just two changes:

Netherlands took the last League A spot, although Wales were favorites to clinch it.
Same thing happened in League B, with Czech Republic pipping Hungary.

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (6 October 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the third match day (5 September 2017). Kyrgyz Republic bounce back and replace Myanmar in the list of teams most likely to qualify.

FIFA Ranking: October 2017 preview

Had no time last week, so here it goes. 104 matches. Very important ranking for the World Cup, as FIFA will use it to determine all the pots, not just Pot 1.

My apologies to fans of teams already eliminated, but we'll focus first on those teams still in the running.

FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking

It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.

I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.

AFC MA Ranking update (15 September 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

When losing strategically helps the motherland

Yes, I grew up under the Communist regime and I can still remember the patriotic songs we had to sing about the motherland and our beloved leader. However, these songs were always about winning for the motherland, never about losing. Yet in the world of the AFC Cup, it's better to lose sometimes.

I was looking on Wednesday over the AFC MA ranking and I was surprised by the inroads Tajikistan are making due to Istiklol's run in the AFC Cup. I realized that Tajikistan could climb to 7th in the East should Istiklol win their remaining matches.

2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)

It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.

I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.

FIFA Ranking: September 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 September.

No matches left.

UEFA Nations League seeding simulations (8 September 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations. The coefficient will not include the play-offs.

Hats off to Finland for playing fair!