2018 World Cup: Impact of the draw

Simulations using the actual draw can be found here.

I've simulated 100000 times the draw and the whole tournament.

Here's how the draw changed the probabilities of advancing out of the group stage:

2018 World Cup draw: What I would have liked to see

I think I've mentioned this before, but I'm getting old and I'm allowed to say things over and over. Getting plenty of practice with my kids :)

Long time ago - about 8 or 9 years ago perhaps - my blog didn't have a custom domain and its name was "Uninteresting things" (of course, in Romanian). This is one of those posts, so feel free to skip it.

FIFA Ranking: October 2017 preview

Had no time last week, so here it goes. 104 matches. Very important ranking for the World Cup, as FIFA will use it to determine all the pots, not just Pot 1.

My apologies to fans of teams already eliminated, but we'll focus first on those teams still in the running.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding

Guam have pulled out of the competition citing financial issues. Nepal, winners of the inaugural AFC Solidarity Cup, will take Guam's place in the draw.

Kuwait have been given until 11 January to sort their issues with FIFA. If they fail, a draw will be used to determine their replacement, although I would have expected AFC to name Macau (Solidarity Cup runners-up) to be named as stand-by team. [Update: Macau will be the stand-by team according to a letter from AFC]

AFCON 2017: Seeding for the final draw

I must be getting old or perhaps my interest regarding football is quickly diminishing. I forgot about the 2017 AFCON qualification - it finished at the start of September.

The draw will take place on 19 October 2016.

CAF seeding: FIFA's special ranking Pandora box

They did it again! Because Egypt rightly complained, FIFA will issue a new special ranking on 21 June.

Egypt fans rejoice, but there's more to this story, as the new ranking will impact more teams than Egypt and Tunisia.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding (22 April 2016)

More info in the first special ranking post.

New friendlies scheduled for Senegal, Egypt, Nigeria and Uganda. Only Nigeria scheduled smartly.

10000 simulations. No changes in the pots, but plenty in the scenarios (scroll down a a bit).

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding sims by team

10000 simulations for each team and set of results.

Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal - are safe in Pot 1 no matter what happens.
Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya - locked in Pot 4.

A couple of very important matches:

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding reloaded

A comment on my blog made me aware of this article published by the Tunisian FA a couple of days ago.

Apparently there will be a special ranking published between 8 and 10 June 2016 that will be used to seed the teams for the third round draw.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

Currently, there are no matches scheduled involving African teams until the June 2016 FIFA ranking deadline. Of course, this will most likely change, but until then, here's a quick look at what happened last month.

2018 FIFA World Cup: AFC 3rd round seeding

Looking at the December sims, only Korea DPR missed out, with China managing to squeeze through.

Assuming the April 2016 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the 12 teams, this is how the pots will look like:

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (12 February 2016)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (18 December 2015)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 17 December 2015.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (30 October 2015)

The draw for Round 3 is yet unknown.

The draw date, location and procedure for Round Three will be confirmed by the end of Round Two by the Organising Committee for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™.

But since some of my African readers have been very insistent, I've run 10000 simulations assuming the draw takes place in December, using the December FIFA ranking.

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (11 September 2015)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 September 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

2018 FWCQ draw: Europe's winners and losers

I was curious to see the impact of the draw on teams' qualification chances.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

So I ran 10000 simulations doing first the draw, then adding the fixtures and another 10000 simulations with the actual groups and fixtures.

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (24 July 2015)

Finally found the time to for this.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

Serbia - Albania: Somebody didn't do their homework

The Romanian Liga 1 teams and the entities in charge of organizing the competition are regulars at CAS. In 2013 for instance, Rapid Bucuresti won a relegation play-off vs. Concordia Chiajna and played two matches in the 2013/2014 season. However, Chiajna's officials contested the FA's decision to organize the play-off at CAS - asking for emergency procedures (I'm not sure if this is the correct legal term, but, hey, I'm a programmer, not a lawyer). CAS ruled in Concordia Chiajna favour and they were reinstated in Liga 1, although the competition had already started.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF format and pots

The format is almost official, the pots are not.

FIFA have released their Statistical Kit for the Preliminary Draw.

Remember CAF announced in January the format for the African qualifiers.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 June 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

Per scenario sims can be found here.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.