FIFA Ranking: Why did Wales fall?

A lot of Welsh football fans were mystified by Wales' drop in the November rankings, despite winning against a higher-ranked team - Norway and their form (4 wins in the last 5 matches).

Why did it happen? I tried to explain, but with the questions still coming, I think a post is required.

October 2011

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Wales.

"0.2 time frame"

17-Nov-2007	IRL	420
21-Nov-2007	GER	487.5
06-Feb-2008	NOR	513
26-Mar-2008	LUX	150
28-May-2008	ISL	345
01-Jun-2008	NED	0
20-Aug-2008	GEO	0
06-Sep-2008	AZE	465
10-Sep-2008	RUS	0
11-Oct-2008	LIE	487.5
15-Oct-2008	GER	0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Nov-2008	DEN	498
11-Feb-2009	POL	0
28-Mar-2009	FIN	0
01-Apr-2009	GER	0
29-May-2009	EST	261
06-Jun-2009	AZE	450
12-Aug-2009	MNE	0
09-Sep-2009	RUS	0
10-Oct-2009	FIN	0
14-Oct-2009	LIE	375

"0.5 time frame"

14-Nov-2009	SCO	462
03-Mar-2010	SWE	0
23-May-2010	CRO	0
11-Aug-2010	LUX	249
03-Sep-2010	MNE	0
08-Oct-2010	BUL	0
12-Oct-2010	SUI	0

"1.0 time frame"

08-Feb-2011	IRL	0
26-Mar-2011	ENG	0
25-May-2011	SCO	0
27-May-2011	NIR	405
10-Aug-2011	AUS	0
02-Sep-2011	MNE	1357.5
06-Sep-2011	ENG	0
07-Oct-2011	SUI	1365
11-Oct-2011	BUL	1087.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	2868	11	0.2	52.145
-3	1584	10	0.3	47.520
-2	711	7	0.5	50.786
-1	4215	9	1	468.333

Total: 618.7845022, rounded up to 619.

November 2011

"0.2 time frame"

06-Feb-2008	NOR	513
26-Mar-2008	LUX	150
28-May-2008	ISL	345
01-Jun-2008	NED	0
20-Aug-2008	GEO	0
06-Sep-2008	AZE	465
10-Sep-2008	RUS	0
11-Oct-2008	LIE	487.5
15-Oct-2008	GER	0
19-Nov-2008	DEN	498

"0.3 time frame"

11-Feb-2009	POL	0
28-Mar-2009	FIN	0
01-Apr-2009	GER	0
29-May-2009	EST	261
06-Jun-2009	AZE	450
12-Aug-2009	MNE	0
09-Sep-2009	RUS	0
10-Oct-2009	FIN	0
14-Oct-2009	LIE	375
14-Nov-2009	SCO	462

"0.5 time frame"

03-Mar-2010	SWE	0
23-May-2010	CRO	0
11-Aug-2010	LUX	249
03-Sep-2010	MNE	0
08-Oct-2010	BUL	0
12-Oct-2010	SUI	0

"1.0 time frame"

08-Feb-2011	IRL	0
26-Mar-2011	ENG	0
25-May-2011	SCO	0
27-May-2011	NIR	405
10-Aug-2011	AUS	0
02-Sep-2011	MNE	1357.5
06-Sep-2011	ENG	0
07-Oct-2011	SUI	1365
11-Oct-2011	BUL	1087.5
12-Nov-2011	NOR	528

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	2458.5	10	0.2	49.170
-3	1548	10	0.3	46.440
-2	249	6	0.5	20.750
-1	4743	10	1	474.300

Total: 590.66, rounded up to 591.

All averages, except the most recent one dropped. Reason? Devaluation of games played in November 2007 (draws against Republic of Ireland in Germany in Euro 2008 qualifiers) - Wales lost 16.50 points , November 2008 (friendly win against Denmark) - Wales lost 4.98 points and November 2009 (friendly win against Scotland) - Wales lost 19.14 points.

Would it have been better not to play in November? No, without the win against Norway, Wales would have had 587 points (as opposed to the current 591).

What if Wales lost? 538 points. And 555 for a draw.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

UEFA seeding: Wales vs. Faroe Islands

I've been getting quite a lot of visits from the Faroe Islands in the last week and even two e-mails, besides all the Wales/Faroe Islands related comments. So here are the detailed point totals for Wales and Faroe Islands. They are valid for both June and July, since there won't be any changes. I always sort teams tied for the same spot using their unrounded totals.

Wales

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Wales.

"0.2 time frame"

22-Aug-2007	BUL	513
08-Sep-2007	GER	0
12-Sep-2007	SVK	1207.5
13-Oct-2007	CYP	0
17-Oct-2007	SMR	375
17-Nov-2007	IRL	420
21-Nov-2007	GER	487.5
06-Feb-2008	NOR	513
26-Mar-2008	LUX	150
28-May-2008	ISL	345
01-Jun-2008	NED	0

"0.3 time frame"

20-Aug-2008	GEO	0
06-Sep-2008	AZE	465
10-Sep-2008	RUS	0
11-Oct-2008	LIE	487.5
15-Oct-2008	GER	0
19-Nov-2008	DEN	498
11-Feb-2009	POL	0
28-Mar-2009	FIN	0
01-Apr-2009	GER	0
29-May-2009	EST	261
06-Jun-2009	AZE	450

"0.5 time frame"

12-Aug-2009	MNE	0
09-Sep-2009	RUS	0
10-Oct-2009	FIN	0
14-Oct-2009	LIE	375
14-Nov-2009	SCO	462
03-Mar-2010	SWE	0
23-May-2010	CRO	0

"1.0 time frame"

11-Aug-2010	LUX	249
03-Sep-2010	MNE	0
08-Oct-2010	BUL	0
12-Oct-2010	SUI	0
08-Feb-2011	IRL	0
26-Mar-2011	ENG	0
25-May-2011	SCO	0
27-May-2011	NIR	405

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	4011	11	0.2	72.927
-3	2161.5	11	0.3	58.950
-2	837	7	0.5	59.786
-1	654	8	1	81.750

Total: 273.412987, rounded down to 273.

Faroe Islands

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Faroe Islands.

"0.2 time frame"

12-Sep-2007	LTU	0
13-Oct-2007	FRA	0
17-Oct-2007	UKR	0
21-Nov-2007	ITA	0
16-Mar-2008	ISL	0
04-Jun-2008	EST	0

"0.3 time frame"

20-Aug-2008	POR	0
06-Sep-2008	SRB	0
10-Sep-2008	ROU	0
11-Oct-2008	AUT	295
15-Oct-2008	LTU	0
22-Mar-2009	ISL	375
10-Jun-2009	SRB	0

"0.5 time frame"

12-Aug-2009	FRA	0
05-Sep-2009	AUT	0
09-Sep-2009	LTU	1035
10-Oct-2009	FRA	0
14-Oct-2009	ROU	0
21-Mar-2010	ISL	0
04-Jun-2010	LUX	73

"1.0 time frame"

11-Aug-2010	EST	0
03-Sep-2010	SRB	0
07-Sep-2010	ITA	0
08-Oct-2010	SVN	0
12-Oct-2010	NIR	387.5
16-Nov-2010	SCO	0
03-Jun-2011	SVN	0
07-Jun-2011	EST	937.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	0	6	0.2	0.000
-3	670	7	0.3	28.714
-2	1108	7	0.5	79.143
-1	1325	8	1	165.625

Total: 273.4821429, rounded down to 273.

So, according to my calculations, Faroe Islands should be above Wales in the ranking. I think FIFA are simply sorting them by rounded total points first, then by their database ID and I suspect Wales have a smaller ID than Faroe Islands.

See for instance the December 2008 FIFA ranking. France, Portugal and Czech Republic are tied for 11th place. Their totals are as follows (confirmed by FIFA by e-mail): Czech Republic 1007.4, Portugal 1007.07, France 1006.87 - exactly in the reverse order.

If you want an official explanation, feel free to contact FIFA.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Iraq August 2009 detailed point totals

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Iraq.

"0.2 time frame"

07-Aug-2005	BHR	90.1
13-Aug-2005	CYP	0
11-Oct-2005	QAT	85.85
26-Nov-2005	KUW	90.95
01-Dec-2005	PLE	127.5
05-Dec-2005	KSA	359.55
08-Dec-2005	KSA	359.55
10-Dec-2005	SYR	102
13-Feb-2006	OMA	0
16-Feb-2006	THA	0
22-Feb-2006	SIN	0
01-Mar-2006	CHN	707.625
15-Mar-2006	KSA	113.05
15-Jul-2006	SYR	229.5
21-Jul-2006	JOR	0
25-Jul-2006	SYR	229.5

"0.3 time frame"

09-Aug-2006	JOR	260.1
17-Aug-2006	PLE	522.75
06-Sep-2006	PLE	174.25
04-Oct-2006	IRN	0
11-Oct-2006	SIN	592.875
15-Nov-2006	CHN	240.125
18-Jan-2007	QAT	359.55
21-Jan-2007	BHR	87.55
24-Jan-2007	KSA	0
08-Jun-2007	JOR	100.3
12-Jun-2007	JOR	96.05
16-Jun-2007	IRN	130.05
18-Jun-2007	PLE	155.55
22-Jun-2007	SYR	219.3
24-Jun-2007	IRN	0
29-Jun-2007	KOR	0
02-Jul-2007	UZB	0
07-Jul-2007	THA	198.9
13-Jul-2007	AUS	1162.8
16-Jul-2007	OMA	316.2
21-Jul-2007	VIE	634.95
25-Jul-2007	KOR	724.2
29-Jul-2007	KSA	1063.35

"0.5 time frame"

16-Oct-2007	QAT	0
22-Oct-2007	PAK	318.75
28-Oct-2007	PAK	106.25
24-Jan-2008	JOR	74.8
31-Jan-2008	UAE	257.55
06-Feb-2008	CHN	250.75
21-Mar-2008	KUW	67.15
26-Mar-2008	QAT	0
17-May-2008	SYR	0
25-May-2008	THA	0
01-Jun-2008	AUS	0
07-Jun-2008	AUS	1051.875
14-Jun-2008	CHN	771.375
22-Jun-2008	QAT	0

"1.0 time frame"

27-Dec-2008	UAE	76.5
04-Jan-2009	BHR	0
07-Jan-2009	OMA	0
10-Jan-2009	KUW	62.05
22-Mar-2009	KSA	123.25
28-Mar-2009	KOR	0
09-Jun-2009	POL	148.925
14-Jun-2009	RSA	326.4
17-Jun-2009	ESP	0
20-Jun-2009	NZL	300.9
10-Jul-2009	PLE	127.5
13-Jul-2009	PLE	127.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	2495.175	16	0.2	31.18969
-3	7038.85	23	0.3	91.81109
-2	2898.5	14	0.5	103.5179
-1	1293.025	12	1	107.7521

Total: 334.2707149, rounded down to 334.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Australia July 2009 detailed point totals

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Australia.

"0.2 time frame"

03-Sep-2005	SOL	427.125
06-Sep-2005	SOL	427.125
09-Oct-2005	JAM	391.845
12-Nov-2005	URU	0
16-Nov-2005	URU	892.4
22-Feb-2006	BHR	688.5
25-May-2006	GRE	488.4
04-Jun-2006	NED	178.525
07-Jun-2006	LIE	202.575
12-Jun-2006	JPN	1672.8
18-Jun-2006	BRA	0
22-Jun-2006	CRO	640.1
26-Jun-2006	ITA	0

"0.3 time frame"

16-Aug-2006	KUW	669.375
06-Sep-2006	KUW	0
07-Oct-2006	PAR	163.785
11-Oct-2006	BHR	650.25
14-Nov-2006	GHA	149.6
06-Feb-2007	DEN	0
24-Mar-2007	CHN	318.75
02-Jun-2007	URU	0
30-Jun-2007	SIN	175.95

"0.5 time frame"

08-Jul-2007	OMA	321.3
13-Jul-2007	IRQ	0
16-Jul-2007	THA	711.45
21-Jul-2007	JPN	418.2
11-Sep-2007	ARG	0
17-Nov-2007	NGA	461.55
06-Feb-2008	QAT	714
22-Mar-2008	SIN	58.65
26-Mar-2008	CHN	255
23-May-2008	GHA	474.3
01-Jun-2008	IRQ	828.75
07-Jun-2008	IRQ	0
14-Jun-2008	QAT	745.875
22-Jun-2008	CHN	0

"1.0 time frame"

19-Aug-2008	RSA	107.95
06-Sep-2008	NED	543.9
10-Sep-2008	UZB	898.875
15-Oct-2008	QAT	777.75
19-Nov-2008	BHR	803.25
28-Jan-2009	IDN	119
11-Feb-2009	JPN	346.375
05-Mar-2009	KUW	0
01-Apr-2009	UZB	803.25
06-Jun-2009	QAT	225.25
10-Jun-2009	BHR	828.75
17-Jun-2009	JPN	1077.375

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	6009.395	13	0.2	92.45223
-3	2127.71	9	0.3	70.92367
-2	4989.075	14	0.5	178.1813
-1	6531.725	12	1	544.3104

Total: 885.8675641 rounded up to 886.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Italy March 2009 detailed point totals

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Italy.

"0.2 time frame"

26-Mar-2005	SCO	937.5
30-Mar-2005	ISL	105
04-Jun-2005	NOR	392.5
08-Jun-2005	SRB	158
11-Jun-2005	ECU	162.185
17-Aug-2005	IRL	531
03-Sep-2005	SCO	317.5
07-Sep-2005	BLR	1095
08-Oct-2005	SVN	1140
12-Oct-2005	MDA	877.5
12-Nov-2005	NED	591
16-Nov-2005	CIV	149.85
01-Mar-2006	GER	540

"0.3 time frame"

31-May-2006	SUI	179
02-Jun-2006	UKR	175
12-Jun-2006	GHA	1687.2
17-Jun-2006	USA	703.12
22-Jun-2006	CZE	2376
26-Jun-2006	AUS	1776
30-Jun-2006	UKR	2028
04-Jul-2006	GER	2184
09-Jul-2006	FRA	1552
16-Aug-2006	CRO	0
02-Sep-2006	LTU	337.5
06-Sep-2006	FRA	0
07-Oct-2006	UKR	1402.5
11-Oct-2006	GEO	802.5
15-Nov-2006	TUR	179

"0.5 time frame"

28-Mar-2007	SCO	1380
02-Jun-2007	FRO	375
06-Jun-2007	LTU	810
22-Aug-2007	HUN	0
08-Sep-2007	FRA	490
12-Sep-2007	UKR	1387.5
13-Oct-2007	GEO	720
17-Oct-2007	RSA	352.425
17-Nov-2007	SCO	1402.5
21-Nov-2007	FRO	375
06-Feb-2008	POR	576

"1.0 time frame"

26-Mar-2008	ESP	0
30-May-2008	BEL	462
09-Jun-2008	NED	0
13-Jun-2008	ROU	564
17-Jun-2008	FRA	1737
22-Jun-2008	ESP	588
20-Aug-2008	AUT	97
06-Sep-2008	CYP	1012.5
10-Sep-2008	GEO	922.5
11-Oct-2008	BUL	462.5
15-Oct-2008	MNE	622.5
19-Nov-2008	GRE	182
10-Feb-2009	BRA	0

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	6997.035	13	0.2	107.6467
-3	15381.82	15	0.3	307.6364
-2	7868.425	11	0.5	357.6557
-1	6650	13	1	511.5385

Total: 1284.477236 rounded down to 1284.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Colombia December 2008 detailed point totals

I don't get the same value as FIFA does, but that's because there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Colombia.

"0.2 time frame"

15-Jan-2005	KOR	491.28
17-Jan-2005	GUA	120.615
23-Feb-2005	MEX	179.52
09-Mar-2005	USA	0
26-Mar-2005	VEN	334.125
30-Mar-2005	ARG	0
31-May-2005	ENG	0
04-Jun-2005	PER	1254.825
08-Jun-2005	ECU	1210.275
06-Jul-2005	PAN	0
10-Jul-2005	HON	0
12-Jul-2005	TRI	1194.93
17-Jul-2005	MEX	1590.435
21-Jul-2005	PAN	0
04-Sep-2005	URU	0
08-Oct-2005	CHI	306.9
12-Oct-2005	PAR	1232.55

"0.3 time frame"

01-Mar-2006	VEN	129.69
24-May-2006	ECU	159.39
27-May-2006	ROU	176.115
30-May-2006	POL	510.435
02-Jun-2006	GER	0
04-Jun-2006	MAR	452.64
16-Aug-2006	CHI	458.64

"0.5 time frame"

07-Feb-2007	URU	0
25-Mar-2007	SUI	543.51
28-Mar-2007	PAR	502.74
09-May-2007	PAN	395.28
03-Jun-2007	MNE	148.5
05-Jun-2007	JPN	142.74
23-Jun-2007	ECU	458.64
28-Jun-2007	PAR	0
02-Jul-2007	ARG	0
05-Jul-2007	USA	1515.24
22-Aug-2007	MEX	518.805
08-Sep-2007	PER	143.08
12-Sep-2007	PAR	496.86
14-Oct-2007	BRA	482.65
17-Oct-2007	BOL	269.5
17-Nov-2007	VEN	1058.4
20-Nov-2007	ARG	1470

"1.0 time frame"

06-Feb-2008	URU	168.56
26-Mar-2008	HON	0
30-Apr-2008	VEN	414.54
29-May-2008	IRL	0
03-Jun-2008	FRA	0
14-Jun-2008	PER	333.2
18-Jun-2008	ECU	345.45
20-Aug-2008	ECU	0
06-Sep-2008	URU	0
10-Sep-2008	CHI	0
11-Oct-2008	PAR	0
15-Oct-2008	BRA	480.2
19-Nov-2008	NGA	488.61

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	7915.455	17	0.2	93.123
-3	1886.91	7	0.3	80.86757
-2	8145.945	17	0.5	239.5866
-1	2230.56	13	1	171.5815

My total: 585.1587275. FIFA has 597. However, my software makes adjustments based on previous month differences and Colombia had 601 in my final December 2008 FIFA ranking preview.

Look at the unweighted averages for each year:

-4	465.615
-3	269.5586
-2	479.1732
-1	171.5815

Colombia really lost it in the last 12 months. No wonder they plunged in the rankings.

Top 5 most valuable individual matches:

17-Jul-2005 Mexico - Colombia 1 - 2 (Gold Cup 2005) 1590.435
05-Jul-2007 Colombia - USA 1 - 0 (Copa America 2007) 1515.24
20-Nov-2007 Colombia - Argentina 2 - 1 (2010 FIFA World Cup Qualifier) 1470
04-Jun-2005 Colombia - Peru 5 - 0 (2006 FIFA World Cup Qualifier) 1254.825
12-Oct-2005 Paraguay - Colombia 0 - 1 (2006 FIFA World Cup Qualifier) 1232.55

Top 5 most valuable matches (actual averaged value):

05-Jul-2007 Colombia - USA 1 - 0 (Copa America 2007) 44.566
20-Nov-2007 Colombia - Argentina 2 - 1 (2010 FIFA World Cup Qualifier) 43.235
19-Nov-2008 Colombia - Nigeria 1 - 0 (Friendly) 37.585
15-Oct-2008 Brazil - Colombia 0 - 0 (2010 FIFA World Cup Qualifier) 36.938
30-Apr-2008 Colombia - Venezuela 5 - 2 (Friendly) 31.888

Colombia's two best results are from more than an year ago! Then they have 2 friendlies and a draw in a qualifier.

Colombia also dropped in the Elo ratings. In the last 12 months, they've lost 19 places and 90 ranking points.

Colombia will probably drop one spot in the January 2009 FIFA ranking, as Costa Rica are expected to climb.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.