2024/2025 UEFA Nations League 10000 Simulations (update 21 March 2025)

Hi all, so who saw that all coming? Lots of interesting results. So what does it mean?

Quarter Finals

Quarter Final Losers

France      78.00%

Italy       73.89%

Netherlands 63.47%

Portugal    58.81%

Denmark     41.19%

Spain       36.53%

Germany     26.11%

Croatia     22.00%

Semi Finalist

Croatia     78.00%

Germany     73.89%

Spain       63.47%

Denmark     58.81%

Portugal    41.19%

Netherlands 36.53%

Italy       26.11%

France      22.00%

3rd/4th Place Playoff

Croatia     48.20%

Denmark     35.18%

Germany     34.96%

Spain       24.65%

Portugal    18.31%

Netherlands 16.97%

Italy       11.55%

France      10.18%

Fourth Place

Croatia     23.96%

Denmark     22.11%

Germany     19.32%

Portugal     9.19%

Spain        8.71%

Netherlands  7.25%

Italy        6.16%

France       3.30%

Third Place

Croatia     24.24%

Spain       15.94%

Germany     15.64%

Denmark     13.07%

Netherlands  9.72%

Portugal     9.12%

France       6.88%

Italy        5.39%

Final

Germany     38.93%

Spain       38.82%

Croatia     29.80%

Denmark     23.63%

Portugal    22.88%

Netherlands 19.56%

Italy       14.56%

France      11.82%

Runner Up

Germany     22.50%

Denmark     15.11%

Croatia     15.04%

Spain       14.01%

Portugal    12.32%

Netherlands  8.78%

Italy        8.11%

France       4.13%

Winner

Spain       24.81%

Germany     16.43%

Croatia     14.76%

Netherlands 10.78%

Portugal    10.56%

Denmark      8.52%

France       7.69%

Italy        6.45%

Playoffs

League A/B

Türkiye v Hungary (aggregate 3-1)

Türkiye  89.34%

Hungary  10.66%

Ukraine v Belgium (aggregate 3-1)

Ukraine  76.60%

Belgium  23.40%

Austria v Serbia (aggregate 1-1)

Austria  53.45%

Serbia   46.55%

Greece v Scotland (aggregate 0-1)

Greece   25.74%

Scotland 74.26%

League B/C

Kosovo v Iceland (aggregate 2-1)

Kosovo   58.97%

Iceland  41.03%

Bulgaria v Ireland (aggregate 1-2)

Bulgaria 17.24%

Ireland  82.76%

Armenia v Georgia (aggregate 0-3)

Armenia   1.20%

Georgia  98.80%

Slovakia v Slovenia (aggregate 0-0)

Slovakia 50.67%

Slovenia 49.33%

2024/2025 UEFA Nations League 10000 Simulations

So hereby posting simulations for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals and subsequent finals tournament that will be hosted by the winner of the Italy v Germany match-up.

Note that these are based on software, not on opinion!

Quarter Final Losers

Croatia     67.20%

Denmark     65.58%

Netherlands 61.18%

Germany     54.37%

Italy       45.63%

Spain       38.82%

Portugal    34.42%

France      32.80%

Semi Finalist

France      67.20%

Portugal    65.58%

Spain       61.18%

Italy       54.37%

Germany     45.63%

Netherlands 38.82%

Denmark     34.42%

Croatia     32.80%

3rd/4th Place Playoff

Portugal    32.35%

France      31.52%

Spain       27.84%

Italy       25.13%

Germany     21.51%

Denmark     21.01%

Netherlands 20.76%

Croatia     19.88%

Fourth Place

Portugal    17.29%

Denmark     13.85%

Italy       13.00%

France      12.74%

Germany     11.74%

Spain       10.81%

Croatia     10.72%

Netherlands  9.85%

Third Place

France      18.78%

Spain       17.03%

Portugal    15.06%

Italy       12.13%

Netherlands 10.91%

Germany      9.77%

Croatia      9.16%

Denmark      7.16%

Final

France      35.68%

Spain       33.34%

Portugal    33.23%

Italy       29.24%

Germany     24.12%

Netherlands 18.06%

Denmark     13.41%

Croatia     12.92%

Runner-up

Portugal    18.11%

Italy       15.38%

France      14.33%

Spain       13.87%

Germany     13.53%

Denmark      9.17%

Netherlands  8.47%

Croatia      7.14%

Winner

France      21.35%

Spain       19.47%

Portugal    15.12%

Italy       13.86%

Germany     10.59%

Netherlands  9.59%

Croatia      5.78%

Denmark      4.24%

The one thing I can say about these numbers is that the current/latest FIFA ranking obviously has a major influence because this uses its "win expectancy". For each round there's a slight variation in the order of the countries, but it is clear that France and Spain are the favorites in terms of these numbers. That is also the case with the bookmakers, although with them Germany has better odds but that's also because the FIFA rankings take time to change, so don't take into account trends that there may be. We all know that Germany is getting stronger lately, and that Belgium is dropping down the rankings for example.

So this represents the start of the simulations for me. I'll see if my current software also works for the CONCACAF Nations League and any other tournaments, although it doesn't make sense yet to run anything too far in the future because there might still be variance in the rankings, and not all matches are currently known.

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Quarter Finals & Playoffs

So having spent some of my spare time improving my software to predict matches without needing to interact with it, here's the predictions for the UEFA Nations League Quarter Finals and playoff matches.

The "number" columns are:

• importance (25 for Quarter Finals, 15 for playoffs)
• win (1)/draw (X)/loss (2)
• expected result (FIFA)
• points for team 1 win (invert for loss points for team 2)
• points for team 1 draw (invert for draw points for team 2)
• points for team 1 loss (invert for win points for team 2)
• if applicable, points for penalty win team 1
• if applicable, points for penalty win team 2

League A

2025-03-20 NED - ESP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.40  15.00   2.50 -10.00

2025-03-23 ESP - NED UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.62   9.54  -2.96 -15.46   3.29   9.21

Predicted winner: Spain

2025-03-20 CRO - FRA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.34  16.40   3.90  -8.60

2025-03-23 FRA - CRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.67   8.23  -4.27 -16.77   1.98  10.52

Predicted Winner: France

2025-03-20 DEN - POR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.36  15.88   3.38  -9.12

2025-03-23 POR - DEN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.65   8.72  -3.78 -16.28   2.47  10.03

Predicted Winner: Portugal

2025-03-20 ITA - GER UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 X  0.53  11.84  -0.66 -13.16

2025-03-23 GER - ITA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 X  0.47  13.13   0.63 -11.87   6.88   5.62

Predicted Winner: Italy (on Penalties)

League A/B Promotion/Relegation

2025-03-20 TUR - HUN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.52   7.22  -0.28  -7.78

2025-03-23 HUN - TUR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.48   7.77   0.27  -7.23   4.02   3.48

Predicted Winner: Türkiye (on penalties) => Türkiye promoted to League A, Hungary relegated to League B

2025-03-20 UKR - BEL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.33  10.06   2.56  -4.94

2025-03-23 BEL - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.68   4.81  -2.69 -10.19   1.06   6.44

Predicted Winner: Belgium => Belgium remain in League A, Ukraine remain in League B

2025-03-20 AUT - SRB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.57   6.42  -1.08  -8.58

2025-03-23 SRB - AUT UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.42   8.76   1.26  -6.24   5.01   2.49

Predicted Winner: Austria => Austria promoted to League A, Serbia relegated to League B

2025-03-20 GRE - SCO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.51   7.36  -0.14  -7.64

2025-03-23 SCO - GRE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.49   7.63   0.13  -7.37   3.88   3.62

Predicted Winner: Greece (on penalties) => Greece promoted to League A, Scotland relegated to League B

League B/C Promotion/Relegation

2025-03-20 KVX - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.37   9.40   1.90  -5.60

2025-03-23 ISL - KVX UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.64   5.45  -2.05  -9.55   1.70   5.80

Predicted Winner: Iceland => Iceland promoted to League B, Kosovo relegated to League C

2025-03-20 BUL - IRL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.41   8.91   1.41  -6.09

2025-03-23 IRL - BUL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.61   5.92  -1.58  -9.08   2.17   5.33

Predicted Winner: Ireland => Ireland remain in League B, Bulgaria remain in League C

2025-03-20 ARM - GEO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.37   9.51   2.01  -5.49

2025-03-23 GEO - ARM UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.64   5.35  -2.15  -9.65   1.60   5.90

Predicted Winner: Georgia => Georgia remain in League B, Armenia remain in League C

2025-03-20 SVK - SVN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.53   7.04  -0.46  -7.96

2025-03-23 SVN - SVK UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.47   7.95   0.45  -7.05   4.20   3.30

Predicted Winner: Slovakia (on penalties) => Slovakia promoted to League B, Slovenia relegated to League C

So for the 2026 World Cup qualifying we should see Spain in Group E, Netherlands in Group G, Portugal in Group F, Denmark in Group C, France in Group D, Croatia in Group L, Italy in Group A and Germany in Group I.

UEFA Nations League 2024/25: 10.000 simulations (August 2024)

In the upcoming September window four new tournaments will start. Here is the third simulation report in a series of four, regarding the UEFA Nations League 2024/25.

In this competition there are 4 leagues. Leagues A to C consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups of 3 teams. All groups are played in a double round-robin format.

The group stage of this competition will be played on six matchdays in the September, October and November windows. In March next year the new introduced quarterfinal round with 4 home-and-away play-offs between the winners and runners-up of the 4 league A groups will be played, with group winners drawn against a runner-up from another group and playing the second leg at home. The draw for all play-offs is on November 22nd. The winners of the quarter finals advance to the Final Four in June 2025.

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (June 2022)

The June window saw 4 match days in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. The remaining two match days will be played in the September window.

There were in league A some quite surprising results: notably France and England -although not playing with obviously weakened teams- performed well below par. On the other hand Hungary, Croatia, Denmark and the Netherlands performed much better than expected.

In league B the effect of Russia's suspension on the way the overall UNL ranking will be calculated is not published by UEFA. I assume the teams in league B finishing on positions one to three in each group are sorted in the UNL ranking on group results without the matches against the group number four taken into account. That way the results of the teams in group B-2 are comparable with the other teams in league B.

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. 

This competition will be played on six matchdays (4 this June window, 2 in the September window), with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year.

There are 4 leagues, A - D. All leagues, except league D, consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups, one with 4 teams and one with 3 teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away. 

Russia is suspended for this competition; they were originally drawn in group B-2.

UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

The European teams will have a busy schedule this year. The qualification groups for the World Cup 2022 in 10 MD's will start in March and be played to a finish in November. There are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.

In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.

And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule and in the same 12 venues, spread across Europe. Last November the last four participants (Hungary, Slovakia, Scotland and North Macedonia) came through the qualification finals.

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2020)

Matchdays three and four in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the October window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the November window. All probabilities in %.

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2020)

The first two matchdays in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the September window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the October and November windows. All probabilities in %.

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2020)

UEFA is the first confederation to draw up a schedule of matches for National Teams in coming Autumn. After the postponement of the EURO 2020 to 2021 they still had to find room in the calendar for the one-off semi-finals and finals in the four paths to decide the last 4 berths in the EUROs. They found that room by stretching both October and November windows by one day to accommodate 3 match days in each window. In that way they could also maintain the already scheduled group matches for the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 this Autumn. There's even room now for some of the postponed friendlies from the March and/or June window.

UEFA Nations League 2019 simulations (April 2018)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2019. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year. The groups were drawn last January.

Official UEFA Nations League seeding

More info in this UEFA.com article. Draw will take place on 24 January 2018.

Looking at the last simulations, there were just two changes:

Netherlands took the last League A spot, although Wales were favorites to clinch it.
Same thing happened in League B, with Czech Republic pipping Hungary.

UEFA Nations League seeding simulations (8 September 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations. The coefficient will not include the play-offs.

Hats off to Finland for playing fair!

UEFA Nations League: Losing could improve your chances

Just a word of warning - I'm not suggesting any FA/player/manager should/will/are prone to lose matches on purpose. This is just an analysis. I'm very much against match fixing.

Did you know each European FA qualified for EURO 2016 got 8 million Euros from UEFA? Not bad, eh? Of course, there's also the achievement of being at a final tournament and all that warm and fuzzy feeling. It's quite nice to qualify.

UEFA Nations League seeding simulations

The usual 10000 simulations.

The usual update without sims can be found here.

League D

UEFA Nations League update (16 June 2017)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

UEFA Nations League update (31 March 2017)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

UEFA Nations League update (18 November 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

UEFA Nations League update (14 October 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

UEFA Nations League update (9 September 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.