We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.
The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):
Showing posts with label OFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OFC. Show all posts
Friday, October 13, 2017
Friday, October 6, 2017
2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)
There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)
6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.
Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:
6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.
Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:
Friday, September 15, 2017
FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking
It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.
I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.
I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.
Friday, September 8, 2017
2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)
It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.
I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.
I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.
Friday, June 23, 2017
2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)
The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.
Previous simulations (31 March 2017).
Previous simulations (31 March 2017).
Friday, March 31, 2017
2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)
The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.
With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.
With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.
Friday, November 18, 2016
2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)
The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.
The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.
The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.
Friday, October 14, 2016
2018 World Cup simulations (14 October 2016)
The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 13 October 2016.
The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.
The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.
Friday, October 7, 2016
2018 World Cup simulations
Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.
They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.
They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.
Friday, May 11, 2012
OFC Nations Cup not quite a continental tournament
As jos235 noticed two days ago, the 2012 OFC Nations Cup matches are considered by FIFA to be World Cup qualifiers and not continental final matches. See the fixtures section on FIFA.com.
This affects the points awarded for these matches, as for World Cup qualifiers the multiplier is 2.5, while for continental final matches the multiplier is 3.
I wrote to FIFA about it and here's the answer:
2002 was the last OFC Nation’s Cup edition which was not also a FIFA World Cup qualifying tournament at the same time. After that we counted the Nations Cup always as World Cup qualifiers.
All matches from Round 1, 2 and 3 as well as the intercontinental play-off will be World Cup qualifiers.
I also asked them if the knock-out stage matches will be considered continental final matches, but they didn't reply to that question.
This affects the points awarded for these matches, as for World Cup qualifiers the multiplier is 2.5, while for continental final matches the multiplier is 3.
I wrote to FIFA about it and here's the answer:
2002 was the last OFC Nation’s Cup edition which was not also a FIFA World Cup qualifying tournament at the same time. After that we counted the Nations Cup always as World Cup qualifiers.
All matches from Round 1, 2 and 3 as well as the intercontinental play-off will be World Cup qualifiers.
I also asked them if the knock-out stage matches will be considered continental final matches, but they didn't reply to that question.
Friday, July 29, 2011
OFC and sporting reasons
In Oceania, the four lowest-ranked Member Associations (based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola Ranking of July 2011, and for sporting reasons) will contest Round One.
Source: FIFA.com
The four lowest-ranked teams in OFC are: Tonga (192), Cook Islands (195), American Samoa (203) and Papua New Guinea (unranked). However, Papua New Guinea were given a bye to Round Two - being placed in second pot, at the expense at Samoa (7th in OFC).
Wikipedia says Round One will probably be staged by Samoa (no reference though) and probably that's what "sporting reasons" means.
Thanks Andrew Culshaw for pointing this out.
Source: FIFA.com
The four lowest-ranked teams in OFC are: Tonga (192), Cook Islands (195), American Samoa (203) and Papua New Guinea (unranked). However, Papua New Guinea were given a bye to Round Two - being placed in second pot, at the expense at Samoa (7th in OFC).
Wikipedia says Round One will probably be staged by Samoa (no reference though) and probably that's what "sporting reasons" means.
Thanks Andrew Culshaw for pointing this out.
Monday, July 5, 2010
2014 FIFA World Cup: New Zealand looking to join AFC's final round
New Zealand Football with the support of the Oceania Football Federation have asked FIFA to allow the Oceanian winners to join the final stages of Asian qualifying, instead of the usual playoff, in order to get more meaningful matches.
Source: Stuff.co.nz.
In December 2006, the FIFA Executive Committee did accept such a change as you can see in this FIFA press realease:
The preliminary competition for the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ will be played in the confederations as follows:
- Africa: the qualifying competition for the African Cup of Nations will once again be combined with the preliminary competition for the FIFA World Cup™ (start date: 13/14 October 2007).
- South America: the league system will once again be used (home and away matches) for a single group of 10 associations, but only double-header dates will be used. The provisional start date is September/October 2007.
- Oceania: in three phases, as for 2006. The first phase will be combined with the South Pacific Games 2007 and the OFC Nations Cup 2008, and the winning team will enter a group in Asia's final round.
- Asia, Europe, CONCACAF: in groups that have yet to be determined.
However, this didn't happen in the end. Perhaps because AFC members weren't very keen to travel long distances and thought they will easily overcome the Kiwis in the playoff. Maybe this time they will reconsider.
Source: Stuff.co.nz.
In December 2006, the FIFA Executive Committee did accept such a change as you can see in this FIFA press realease:
The preliminary competition for the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ will be played in the confederations as follows:
- Africa: the qualifying competition for the African Cup of Nations will once again be combined with the preliminary competition for the FIFA World Cup™ (start date: 13/14 October 2007).
- South America: the league system will once again be used (home and away matches) for a single group of 10 associations, but only double-header dates will be used. The provisional start date is September/October 2007.
- Oceania: in three phases, as for 2006. The first phase will be combined with the South Pacific Games 2007 and the OFC Nations Cup 2008, and the winning team will enter a group in Asia's final round.
- Asia, Europe, CONCACAF: in groups that have yet to be determined.
However, this didn't happen in the end. Perhaps because AFC members weren't very keen to travel long distances and thought they will easily overcome the Kiwis in the playoff. Maybe this time they will reconsider.
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