CONMEBOL qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

CONMEBOL started with their World Cup qualifiers. They played 4 MD's in October and November last year.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete qualifying campaign for CONMEBOL teams, including the complete Copa America 2021 (now scheduled for this June) along the road -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking

It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.

I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.

2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)

It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.

I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.

2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

2018 World Cup simulations (14 October 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 13 October 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

2018 World Cup simulations

Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.

They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.

2016 Copa América Centenario sims

The usual 10000 simulations.

First the average points in the group stage.

FIFA Ranking: Mano Menezes hoping against hope

Hoping against mathematics actually. Really, someone at CBF should take a look at the ranking procedure and explain it to Mr. Menezes, otherwise he's in for a surprise in the following months.

When asked last week about Brazil's fall out of the top 10, Mr. Menezes replied:

FIFA Ranking: Brazil out of the top 10

Only two countries have to go way back to the first edition of the FIFA Ranking (August 1993) to see their worst ever ranking: Brazil (8th) and South Africa (109th).

From 4 July it will be easier for officials at CBF to find their worst ever ranking, as Brazil will drop to at least 11th.

FIFA Ranking: How are Uruguay second?

That's the big question on Twitter it seems :)

Uruguay are second because they managed a draw against Venezuela and Germany lost against Switzerland. La Celeste will most likely leave the podium and drop to 5th in July.

FIFA "A" match status: Double standard?

As you know, Mexico and Costa Rica will participate in the Copa America as guests. They won't be sending full strength squads however.

FMF's website uses the term "Selection Sub-22" for their team. Same thing for Costa Rica: they will send their "Seleccion Preolimpica" to the Copa America.

FIFA have recently removed Mexico's pre-Copa America friendlies from their list of results. However, the Copa America matches involving Mexico and Costa Rica are still on FIFA.com.

When Côte d'Ivoire sent their CHAN team to the 2010 CECAFA Cup, their matches weren't included in the FIFA Ranking. Same for South Africa (Developmental XI) and Angola (U-20) in the 2008 and 2009 COSAFA Cup.

So I assume FIFA are including Mexico's and Costa Rica's games because Copa America is a continental championship, while the CECAFA and COSAFA cups are only regional tournaments of little international importance.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

CONMEBOL determined to keep their allocation

It didn't take long. After Jack Warner announced CONCACAF have petitioned FIFA for 4 places (up from 3.5 they had for the 2010 World Cup), CONMEBOL announced they are determined to keep their 4.5 spots.

Interesting to see CAF also want to keep 6 spots for the 2014 finals. That's something I haven't heard before.

As you can see, Blatter was right when he said CONCACAF's bid for a fourth spot will be a struggle.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

CONCACAF qualifying system news update

18 games to reach the 2014 World Cup, according to Diez.hn.

This time the info comes from Mr. Alfredo Hawit Banegas, member of CONCACAF's Executive Committee.

There's also this article in LaPrensa.hn, with the info provided by Mario Monterrosa, CONCACAF's deputy secretary.

The system

1. Preliminary round (if needed) to trim the number of teams to 32.
2. 8 groups of 4 teams. Top two in each group through to the next round.
3. 4 groups of 4 teams. Top two in each group through to the next round.
4. 2 groups of 4 teams. If CONCACAF will have 3.5 spots, the winners of the groups will qualify directly to the World Cup, while the second placed teams will play-off against each other first, then against a team from another confederation (CONMEBOL). If CONCACAF gets 4 spots as they hope, the top two teams in each group will qualify to the World Cup.
   

The system needs to be approved by FIFA's Executive Committee in September and I can't see why FIFA wouldn't approve it. Also according to Mr. Hawit, the allocation of places for the 2014 FIFA World Cup will be announced in October. Mr. Monterrosa, however, thinks the allocation will be known in December.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

CONCACAF qualifying system news

Or Jamaica vs. Honduras...

Horace Burrell keeps talking about a final group of 12 teams.

In CONCACAF's case, instead of the final 12 teams being placed in three groups, there will only be a straight home-and-away play-off series, which means that each team would play 22 matches for the three automatic World Cup places.

On the other hand, or should I say in the other corner, Rafael Callejas, says CONCACAF will have two groups of four teams in the final round.

Mr. Callejas also says it's almost certain.

Sin embargo, en vez de una hexagonal final, como en la pasada eliminatoria, existirán dos cuadrangulares finales.

Also in that article, we're told CONCACAF are pushing for a fourth World Cup spot at the expense of CONMEBOL, who are totally against it.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.