CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 (August 2021)

The eight teams qualified for the Octogonal, the final CONCACAF qualification round for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, are known. Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras were automatically qualified for this round. El Salvador, Canada and Panama qualified from the second round play-offs in June.

Last week the Gold Cup 2021 finished, with the USA winning in extra time over Mexico. Semi finalists were Canada and invitee Qatar. So now all is set for the Octogonal, 14 match days to be played between next month and March next year. Numbers one to three qualify for Qatar, number 4 qualifies for an interconfederational play-off in June 2022 against a yet unknown opponent from Asia (number 5), South America (number 5) or OFC (number 1). No word yet from FIFA when the draw for the interconfederational play-offs will be staged.

CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (May 2021)

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:

• a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
• the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
• a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
• the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.

This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.

CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:

• a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
• the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
• a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
• the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.

This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.

Gold Cup 2021 qualification play-offs simulations (December 2019)

The composition of the two qualification rounds, to be played next March and June, for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2021 was drawn two weeks ago. Both rounds contain four two-legged play-offs.

In the first round the 4 group winners of league C from the CNL 2019 were drawn against the 4 runners-up from the groups in league B. The 4 winners of these first round play-offs are then drawn against the 4 group numbers 3 from the groups in league A.
The 4 winners of the second round join the 12 already qualified teams for the Gold Cup 2021 final tournament.

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, played from June 15th to July 7th in the United States with first round group B and C matches played in San José Costa Rica and Kingston Jamaica. The format is expanded to 16 teams, playing in the classic format of 4 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

2022 FIFA World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF

For the 2018 qualifiers, CONCACAF chose to seed the teams using the August 2014 FIFA ranking. Should they use the same approach, we're looking at the August 2018 edition. We're already in the last time frame (most recent 12 months).

Scheduled matches (including World Cup and play-offs) included as defeats.

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking

It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.

I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.

2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)

It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.

I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.

2017 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations

The Gold Cup kicks off today.

The usual 10000 simulations.

2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

2018 World Cup simulations (14 October 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 13 October 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

2018 World Cup simulations

Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.

They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.

2016 Copa América Centenario sims

The usual 10000 simulations.

First the average points in the group stage.

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF format and seeding proposal

Three days ago, ESPN's Fernando Palomo published insider details (in Spanish) regarding the proposal CONCACAF sent to its member federations.

The previous format featured 2 group stages. The first group stage has been replaced by two KO rounds in the proposed format.

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CONCACAF (25 July 2014)

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CONCACAF will choose the March 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CONCACAF (6 December 2013)

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CONCACAF will choose the March 2015 ranking for seeding