CAF qualification World Cup 2026: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

The match schedule for the group stage matches in African qualification for the World Cup 2026 is finally released, so now I'm able to simulate the process. The format is very simple: all 54 African teams are divided in 9 groups of 6 teams and the 9 group winners qualify for the World Cup.

The 4 best ranked group runners-up will qualify for a play-off, consisting of two one-off semi finals and a one-off final to determine the CAF representation in the IPO. The seeding for this play-off is unknown yet. It could be a completely free draw, or seeding according to the prevailing FIFA ranking or to the ranking of the 4 participants based on group results and then 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3.

This play-off will be played anyway in November 2025.

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (April 2021)

Africa's qualification process for the World Cup next year in Qatar is not too complicated but (as usual) with little margin for error:

• first a play-off round to whittle the number of teams down to 40. These play-offs were already played in September 2019.
• then a second round consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams, with two match days to be played in the June, September and October windows this year. The ten group winners progress to 
• round three with five home-and-away play-offs to determine the 5 African participants in Qatar. These play-offs are to be played in November this year and the 10 teams in the draw will be seeded according to the FIFA October 2021 ranking.

Although the match schedule for the second qualifying round is still not officially confirmed, nor by FIFA, nor by CAF, the first two group matches are scheduled for the upcoming June window next month. Don't know why it's taking them this long to publish a simple match schedule, when the draw for this round was already more than a year ago...

2019 CAF Nations Cup: 10000 simulations

Next month the last match day of qualifying for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 (Egypt this Summer) will be played. Already 14 teams are qualified, another 10 berths to play for. Here are the results of 10000 simulations of this match day. The results will also determine the seeding for the draw of the final tournament, based on the CAF NT ranking. 

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking

It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.

I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.

2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)

It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.

I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.

2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

2018 World Cup simulations (14 October 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 13 October 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

2018 World Cup simulations

Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.

They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.

AFCON 2017: Seeding for the final draw

I must be getting old or perhaps my interest regarding football is quickly diminishing. I forgot about the 2017 AFCON qualification - it finished at the start of September.

The draw will take place on 19 October 2016.

CAF seeding: FIFA's special ranking Pandora box

They did it again! Because Egypt rightly complained, FIFA will issue a new special ranking on 21 June.

Egypt fans rejoice, but there's more to this story, as the new ranking will impact more teams than Egypt and Tunisia.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding (22 April 2016)

More info in the first special ranking post.

New friendlies scheduled for Senegal, Egypt, Nigeria and Uganda. Only Nigeria scheduled smartly.

10000 simulations. No changes in the pots, but plenty in the scenarios (scroll down a a bit).

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding sims by team

10000 simulations for each team and set of results.

Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal - are safe in Pot 1 no matter what happens.
Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya - locked in Pot 4.

A couple of very important matches:

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding reloaded

A comment on my blog made me aware of this article published by the Tunisian FA a couple of days ago.

Apparently there will be a special ranking published between 8 and 10 June 2016 that will be used to seed the teams for the third round draw.

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

Currently, there are no matches scheduled involving African teams until the June 2016 FIFA ranking deadline. Of course, this will most likely change, but until then, here's a quick look at what happened last month.

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (12 February 2016)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (18 December 2015)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 17 December 2015.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)