10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
Top 10 most likely finals:
6.94% - Australia vs. Japan
4.37% - Australia vs. Korea Republic
3.79% - Iran vs. Japan
3.55% - Japan vs. United Arab Emirates
3.41% - Australia vs. Uzbekistan
3.35% - Australia vs. Iran
2.83% - Iran vs. United Arab Emirates
2.71% - Japan vs. Korea Republic
2.40% - Japan vs. Jordan
2.35% - Australia vs. Oman
Showing posts with label Asian Cup 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asian Cup 2015. Show all posts
Friday, December 5, 2014
Friday, April 27, 2012
Kuwait FA publish 2015 Asian Cup preliminary seeding
Three days ago the Kuwaiti FA published the seeding for the 2015 Asian Cup preliminary draw (scheduled to take place in mid-October).
The pots are the same as those I've published on 30 March, based on info received from AFC.
The pots are the same as those I've published on 30 March, based on info received from AFC.
Friday, March 30, 2012
2015 Asian Cup preliminary draw in October
According to AFC, "The members were informed that 20 teams, who have confirmed their entries for the qualifiers, would be drawn into five groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group and one third best-placed team from among all the groups would qualify for the Finals."
According to QFA, "On the margin of the AFC executive committee meetings, it was confirmed that the qualification stage draw for the 2015 Asian Cup - Australia will be held on October."
AFC had reserved two match days in September 2012 for a possible preliminary round (1 and 5 Sep), but they won't be used.
These are the match days (2013 and 2014):
MD 1: 6 February 2013
MD 2: 22 March 2013
MD 3: 15 October 2013
MD 4: 15 November 2013
MD 5: 19 November 2013
MD 6: 5 March 2014
Alternative match dates: 11 January 2014, 18 January 2014 and 25 January 2014. Why are they needed? Because MD 3 and 5 collide with the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup play-off.
Now, about participation. This is the list I've received from AFC (yes, they've finally replied to my e-mails!): Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, China, Bahrain, Syria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.
Based on the 2011 Asian Cup performance ranking, the bottom 23 will participate in the AFC Challenge Cup, while the top 23 will be involved in the main qualifiers. Obviously, the top 3 (Japan, Australia and Korea Republic) have direct entry and that leaves 20 teams to participate in the qualifiers.
Korea DPR are a special case. Although they are in the top 23, the AFC Executive Committee has allowed them to play in the AFC Challenge Cup because of difficulties in hosting home-and-away games in Korea DPR. If the North Koreans would have confirmed their participation in the main qualifiers, there would have been a preliminary round involving Lebanon and Hong Kong.
Now, there's only one problem. Based on 2011 Asian Cup performance, India are 16th. Why won't they participate in the main qualifiers? No answer from AFC (yet) regarding this.
These will be the pots for the October draw:
Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.
Thailand should be below Yemen, but this doesn't affect the seeding.
Group of death: Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon.
According to QFA, "On the margin of the AFC executive committee meetings, it was confirmed that the qualification stage draw for the 2015 Asian Cup - Australia will be held on October."
AFC had reserved two match days in September 2012 for a possible preliminary round (1 and 5 Sep), but they won't be used.
These are the match days (2013 and 2014):
MD 1: 6 February 2013
MD 2: 22 March 2013
MD 3: 15 October 2013
MD 4: 15 November 2013
MD 5: 19 November 2013
MD 6: 5 March 2014
Alternative match dates: 11 January 2014, 18 January 2014 and 25 January 2014. Why are they needed? Because MD 3 and 5 collide with the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup play-off.
Now, about participation. This is the list I've received from AFC (yes, they've finally replied to my e-mails!): Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, China, Bahrain, Syria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.
Based on the 2011 Asian Cup performance ranking, the bottom 23 will participate in the AFC Challenge Cup, while the top 23 will be involved in the main qualifiers. Obviously, the top 3 (Japan, Australia and Korea Republic) have direct entry and that leaves 20 teams to participate in the qualifiers.
Korea DPR are a special case. Although they are in the top 23, the AFC Executive Committee has allowed them to play in the AFC Challenge Cup because of difficulties in hosting home-and-away games in Korea DPR. If the North Koreans would have confirmed their participation in the main qualifiers, there would have been a preliminary round involving Lebanon and Hong Kong.
Now, there's only one problem. Based on 2011 Asian Cup performance, India are 16th. Why won't they participate in the main qualifiers? No answer from AFC (yet) regarding this.
These will be the pots for the October draw:
Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.
Thailand should be below Yemen, but this doesn't affect the seeding.
Group of death: Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon.
Friday, February 4, 2011
2015 AFC Asian Cup seeding
Considering AFC's dislike of the FIFA Ranking, the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance will most likely be used to seed the teams both in the qualifiers and the final tournament.
Here's the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance ranking:
I have Iran and Iraq above Qatar because both teams lost in extra time, while the hosts lost in regular time. I don't know how AFC will handle this - it makes no difference in the qualifiers. The final seeding will also be unaffected (unless Uzbekistan fail to qualify).
Assuming AFC will use again the system with 5 groups of 4 teams with the top 2 and the best 3rd place team also qualifying, these are the pots (with Korea DPR and India participating).
First round
Pot 1: Vietnam, Indonesia, Lebanon
Pot 2: Hong Kong, Malaysia, Maldives
Group stage
Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates
Pot 3: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen
Pot 4: Thailand, Singapore + play-off winners
There could be a group with Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
On to the final tournament.
As mentioned before, the final seeding will also be based on the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance. Assuming India and Korea DPR again qualify through the AFC Challenge Cup and the top teams based on seeding qualify, these would be the pots for the final draw:
Pot 1: Australia (hosts), Japan, Korea Republic, Uzbekistan
Pot 2: Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan
Pot 3: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR
Pot 4: United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India
I'll post updates as soon as teams clinch qualification.
Here's the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance ranking:
1 Japan
2 Australia
3 Korea Republic
4 Uzbekistan
5 Iran
6 Iraq
7 Qatar
8 Jordan
9 China PR
10 Bahrain
11 Syria
12 Korea DPR
13 United Arab Emirates
14 Kuwait
15 Saudi Arabia
16 India
17 Oman
18 Yemen
19 Thailand
20 Singapore
21 Vietnam
22 Indonesia
23 Lebanon
24 Hong Kong
25 Malaysia
26 Maldives
I have Iran and Iraq above Qatar because both teams lost in extra time, while the hosts lost in regular time. I don't know how AFC will handle this - it makes no difference in the qualifiers. The final seeding will also be unaffected (unless Uzbekistan fail to qualify).
Assuming AFC will use again the system with 5 groups of 4 teams with the top 2 and the best 3rd place team also qualifying, these are the pots (with Korea DPR and India participating).
First round
Pot 1: Vietnam, Indonesia, Lebanon
Pot 2: Hong Kong, Malaysia, Maldives
Group stage
Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates
Pot 3: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen
Pot 4: Thailand, Singapore + play-off winners
There could be a group with Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
On to the final tournament.
As mentioned before, the final seeding will also be based on the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance. Assuming India and Korea DPR again qualify through the AFC Challenge Cup and the top teams based on seeding qualify, these would be the pots for the final draw:
Pot 1: Australia (hosts), Japan, Korea Republic, Uzbekistan
Pot 2: Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan
Pot 3: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR
Pot 4: United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India
I'll post updates as soon as teams clinch qualification.
Friday, January 21, 2011
2015 AFC Asian Cup: Bad news for Saudi Arabia
AFC will most likely use the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance to seed the teams for both the preliminary competition and the final tournament of the 2015 edition.
Outside the top 8 (quarter finalists), the standings are already known.
Most likely the top 3 in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup will be automatically qualified for the 2015 edition.
if Australia finish in the top 3 and the 4th placed team gets a bye from AFC to the final tournament, or Australia don't finish in the top 3, the qualifying setup will be the same as for Qatar 2011. Assuming the same teams and Korea DPR participate in the preliminaries, here's how things will look like:
First round
Pot 1: Lebanon, Hong Kong
Pot 2: Malaysia, Maldives
Group stage
Pot 1: China PR + worst of the top 8.
Pot 2: Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen, Thailand
Pot 4: Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia + playoff winners
Saudi Arabia in the third pot. If Korea DPR don't enter the preliminary competition (as they did this time), Saudi Arabia will climb to the second pot.
Outside the top 8 (quarter finalists), the standings are already known.
9 China PR
10 Bahrain
11 Syria
12 Korea DPR
13 United Arab Emirates
14 Kuwait
15 Saudi Arabia
16 India
17 Oman
18 Yemen
19 Thailand
20 Singapore
21 Vietnam
22 Indonesia
23 Lebanon
24 Hong Kong
25 Malaysia
26 Maldives
Most likely the top 3 in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup will be automatically qualified for the 2015 edition.
if Australia finish in the top 3 and the 4th placed team gets a bye from AFC to the final tournament, or Australia don't finish in the top 3, the qualifying setup will be the same as for Qatar 2011. Assuming the same teams and Korea DPR participate in the preliminaries, here's how things will look like:
First round
Pot 1: Lebanon, Hong Kong
Pot 2: Malaysia, Maldives
Group stage
Pot 1: China PR + worst of the top 8.
Pot 2: Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen, Thailand
Pot 4: Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia + playoff winners
Saudi Arabia in the third pot. If Korea DPR don't enter the preliminary competition (as they did this time), Saudi Arabia will climb to the second pot.
Monday, March 29, 2010
2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying - Probable Asian format
I made a mistake in this Asian World Cup seeding post, as jonny pointed out in this comment. I assumed the qualifiers will start in October 2011 with the draw taking place in August 2011 - using the same time table as last time.
Actually, the first round will take place this year in October. Probably the draw will take place in August.
I managed to find the 2014 World Cup Asian qualifying format (sort of), by checking the AFC calendar of competitions for 2010 - 2014.
AFC seem pretty sure of keeping their 4.5 spots - or at least that's how I see it - with round 5 and 6 used for play-off purposes.
10 match days in round 4 - possible groups of 6 teams, but I think it will be groups of 5 teams, as amir pointed out.
Round 1 and 2 are a bit tricky - round 1 in particular. Will teams qualified for Qatar 2011 be involved in the first round?
Most likely format:
Round 1
MD1 - 8 October 2010
MD2 - 12 October 2010
Round 2
MD1 - 25 March 2011
MD2 - 29 March 2011
Round 3
Most likely there will be a draw in April or May 2011.
5 groups of 4 teams - winners and runner-ups go to the next round.
MD1 - 7 June 2011
MD2 - 6 September 2011
MD3 - 11 October 2011
MD4 - 11 November 2011
MD5 - 15 November 2011
MD6 - 29 February 2012
Round 4
A draw for this round will take place sometime before May 2012.
2 groups of 5 teams. Winners and runner-ups qualify for Brazil 2014.
MD1 - 9 June 2012
MD2 - 13 June 2012
MD3 - 11 September 2012
MD4 - 16 October 2012
MD5 - 14 November 2012
MD6 - 22 March 2013
MD7 - 26 March 2013
MD8 - 4 June 2013
MD9 - 11 June 2013
MD10 - 18 June 2013
Round 5
AFC play-off (third placed teams)
MD1 - 6 September 2013
MD2 - 10 September 2013
Round 6
Intercontinental play-off
MD1 - 15 October 2013
MD2 - 15 November 2013
For those interested, these are the 2015 Asian Cup qualifying dates:
Asian Cup
Round 1
MD1 - 1 September 2012
MD2 - 5 September 2012
Round 2
MD1 - 2 February 2013
MD2 - 6 February 2013
MD3 - 15 October 2013
MD4 - 15 November 2013
MD5 - 19 November 2013
MD6 - 5 March 2014
I think AMD stands for Alternative Match Day - 11, 18 and 25 January 2014.
Actually, the first round will take place this year in October. Probably the draw will take place in August.
I managed to find the 2014 World Cup Asian qualifying format (sort of), by checking the AFC calendar of competitions for 2010 - 2014.
AFC seem pretty sure of keeping their 4.5 spots - or at least that's how I see it - with round 5 and 6 used for play-off purposes.
10 match days in round 4 - possible groups of 6 teams, but I think it will be groups of 5 teams, as amir pointed out.
Round 1 and 2 are a bit tricky - round 1 in particular. Will teams qualified for Qatar 2011 be involved in the first round?
Most likely format:
Round 1
MD1 - 8 October 2010
MD2 - 12 October 2010
Round 2
MD1 - 25 March 2011
MD2 - 29 March 2011
Round 3
Most likely there will be a draw in April or May 2011.
5 groups of 4 teams - winners and runner-ups go to the next round.
MD1 - 7 June 2011
MD2 - 6 September 2011
MD3 - 11 October 2011
MD4 - 11 November 2011
MD5 - 15 November 2011
MD6 - 29 February 2012
Round 4
A draw for this round will take place sometime before May 2012.
2 groups of 5 teams. Winners and runner-ups qualify for Brazil 2014.
MD1 - 9 June 2012
MD2 - 13 June 2012
MD3 - 11 September 2012
MD4 - 16 October 2012
MD5 - 14 November 2012
MD6 - 22 March 2013
MD7 - 26 March 2013
MD8 - 4 June 2013
MD9 - 11 June 2013
MD10 - 18 June 2013
Round 5
AFC play-off (third placed teams)
MD1 - 6 September 2013
MD2 - 10 September 2013
Round 6
Intercontinental play-off
MD1 - 15 October 2013
MD2 - 15 November 2013
For those interested, these are the 2015 Asian Cup qualifying dates:
Asian Cup
Round 1
MD1 - 1 September 2012
MD2 - 5 September 2012
Round 2
MD1 - 2 February 2013
MD2 - 6 February 2013
MD3 - 15 October 2013
MD4 - 15 November 2013
MD5 - 19 November 2013
MD6 - 5 March 2014
I think AMD stands for Alternative Match Day - 11, 18 and 25 January 2014.
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