2015 AFC Asian Cup: Bad news for Saudi Arabia

AFC will most likely use the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance to seed the teams for both the preliminary competition and the final tournament of the 2015 edition.

Outside the top 8 (quarter finalists), the standings are already known.

 9 China PR
10 Bahrain
11 Syria
12 Korea DPR
13 United Arab Emirates
14 Kuwait
15 Saudi Arabia
16 India
17 Oman
18 Yemen
19 Thailand
20 Singapore
21 Vietnam
22 Indonesia
23 Lebanon
24 Hong Kong
25 Malaysia
26 Maldives

Most likely the top 3 in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup will be automatically qualified for the 2015 edition.

if Australia finish in the top 3 and the 4th placed team gets a bye from AFC to the final tournament, or Australia don't finish in the top 3, the qualifying setup will be the same as for Qatar 2011. Assuming the same teams and Korea DPR participate in the preliminaries, here's how things will look like:

First round

Pot 1: Lebanon, Hong Kong
Pot 2: Malaysia, Maldives

Group stage

Pot 1: China PR + worst of the top 8.
Pot 2: Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen, Thailand
Pot 4: Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia + playoff winners

Saudi Arabia in the third pot. If Korea DPR don't enter the preliminary competition (as they did this time), Saudi Arabia will climb to the second pot.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

AFC Asian Cup 2011: Official seeding for the final draw

All participants will be seeded using the final ranking at the AFC Asian Cup 2007. That includes the 2007 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers.

Pot 1: Qatar (hosts), Iraq (champions), Saudi Arabia, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Japan, Australia, Iran, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: China, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordan
Pot 4: Syria, Kuwait, India, Korea DPR

Source: AFC Asian Cup Qatar 2011™ Finals draw mechanics

The draw takes places today in Doha at 19:00 (local time).

In my final draw post, I seeded the last 5 teams (that didn't play in the 2007 final tournament) using the March 2010 FIFA ranking, with Kuwait taking the last place in the third pot.

However, AFC have seeded them based on their performance in the 2007 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: Jordan (10p), Syria (8p), Kuwait (4p), India (0p), Korea DPR (didn't participate).

Since these 5 teams didn't participate in the 2007 final tournament, I think it would have been better to seed them using the 2011 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: Syria (14p), Kuwait (9p), Jordan (8p), Korea DPR (2010 AFC Challenge Cup winners), India (2008 AFC Challenge Cup winners).

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

AFC Asian Cup 2011: Seeding for the final draw (8 March 2010)

The draw for the final tournament will take place on April 23rd, 2010 in Doha, Qatar.

Qualified teams:

AFC Asian Cup 2007: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Korea Republic
AFC Challenge Cup 2008: India
AFC Challenge Cup 2010: Korea DPR
Group A: Japan, Bahrain
Group B: Australia, Kuwait
Group C: United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan
Group D: Syria, China PR
Group E: Iran, Jordan

In 2004, teams were seeded using results from Lebanon 2000. In 2007, teams were seeded using the FIFA ranking.

Seeding based on the results of 2007 AFC Asian Cup:

Pot 1: Qatar (hosts), Iraq (champions), Saudi Arabia, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Japan, Australia, Iran, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: China, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait
Pot 4: Syria, Jordan, Korea DPR, India

Kuwait, Syria, Jordan, Korea DPR and India (not present at the 2007 AFC Asian Cup) ranked by their March 2010 FIFA ranking.

Seeding based on the FIFA ranking:

Pot 1: Qatar (hosts), Iraq (champions), Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Bahrain
Pot 3: China PR, Kuwait, Uzbekistan, Syria
Pot 4: Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Korea DPR, India

Iraq are suspended by FIFA since November 20th, 2009 due to government interference.

If the suspension is not lifted by April 23rd, 2010, AFC have a couple of options:

1. Postpone the draw
2. Replace Iraq with one of Oman (best 3rd placed team in the qualifiers), Turkmenistan (AFC Challenge Cup 2010 finalists) or Tajikistan (AFC Challenge Cup 2008 finalists and winners in 2006)
3. Have two draws - one with Iraq and one with the replacement team.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

AFC Asian Cup 2011: Seeding for the final draw

The draw for the final tournament will take place in April 2010 in Doha, Qatar. The hosts will be seeded.

Already qualified:

Qatar - hosts
Iraq - 2007 AFC Asian Cup winner
Saudi Arabia - 2007 AFC Asian Cup runner-up
Korea Republic - 2007 AFC Asian Cup runner-up

India - 2008 AFC Challenge Cup winner

Uzbekistan - Group C qualifier
Syria - Group D qualifier

Going by the current standings, these are the teams most likely to join the 7 qualifiers:

Bahrain and Japan from Group A
Kuwait and Australia from Group B
United Arab Emirates from Group C
China from Group D
Iran and Singapore from Group E
Korea DPR from the 2010 AFC Challenge Cup

In 2004, teams were seeded using results from Lebanon 2000. In 2007, teams were seeded using the FIFA ranking.

Seeding based on the results of 2007 AFC Asian Cup:

Pot 1: Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Japan, Australia, Iran, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: China, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Korea DPR
Pot 4: Syria, Kuwait, Singapore, India

If AFC choose the March 2010 FIFA ranking to seed the teams, the interim pots would look like this:

Pot 1: Qatar, Iraq, Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, China, Kuwait, Syria
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, India

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.