2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (22 december 2018)

The format of the Asian qualification for the next World Cup is not yet known in detail. Looking at the AFC match calendar for the coming years it seems that the format will be the same as for the previous World Cup:

• 1st round: play-offs played in June 2019 (2 MD);
• 2nd round: group stage played from September 2019 until June 2020 (10 MD);
• 3rd round: another group stage played from September 2020 until October 2021 (10 MD);
• 4th round: play-off to determine the AFC number 5 played in November 2021 (2 MD).

Intercontinental play-offs will probably be played in 2022.

Asian Nations Cup 2019 simulations (May 2018)

Last week was the draw for the Asian Nations Cup 2019, played next January in the United Arab Emirates. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 tournament.

The seeding for this draw was based on the April FIFA ranking, but with a small twist: the 12 teams that qualified first in the second qualifying round populated the first two pots, ordered by this ranking. The other 12 teams that qualified later on via the third qualifying round populated pots 3 and 4, once again ordered by this ranking.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (6 October 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the third match day (5 September 2017). Kyrgyz Republic bounce back and replace Myanmar in the list of teams most likely to qualify.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (14 July 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the second match day (13 June 2017). Great improvement for Myanmar and Philippines. On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Singapore stumbled and lost momentum.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding

Guam have pulled out of the competition citing financial issues. Nepal, winners of the inaugural AFC Solidarity Cup, will take Guam's place in the draw.

Kuwait have been given until 11 January to sort their issues with FIFA. If they fail, a draw will be used to determine their replacement, although I would have expected AFC to name Macau (Solidarity Cup runners-up) to be named as stand-by team. [Update: Macau will be the stand-by team according to a letter from AFC]

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding update

More info in this post.

The usual 10000 simulations - based on the current list of fixtures. Teams are sorted on average pot over the 10000 sims.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding simulations

The draw for the 3rd round will take place on 18 January 2017. This has been announced by Tajik FA and Kyrgyz FA. This is all very nice.

Regarding the seeding criteria, I only have a comment on Facebook (by the Tajikistan FA), stating FIFA ranking will be used. Even so, I have to assume it will be the January 2017 FIFA ranking.

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC sims (18 December 2015)

Two weeks late, I know :)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 14 December 2015. And assuming Myanmar - Kuwait will finally be played on 19 March 2016 (currently there's no information from FIFA regarding's this match).

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format:

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC second round simulations (23 October 2015)

By request.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 22 October 2015. And assuming Kuwait manage to fix their issues in time for the November qualifier vs. Myanmar.

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format :

2018 FIFA World Cup (AFC): Minimum travel groups

Some AFC teams are worried about the travel they will face in the group stage.

I dusted off my minimum travel groups code used for the EURO 2016 draw and here's what came out.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Second round pots

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

With no matches left before the deadline, the pots are set.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (27 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Yemen have advanced, after a 0 - 0 vs. Pakistan played in Bahrain.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Only one spot left - it will be either Pakistan or Yemen - as the return leg was rescheduled because of the Lahore church bombings.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)

As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.

With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

2015 AFC Asian Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.94% - Australia vs. Japan
4.37% - Australia vs. Korea Republic
3.79% - Iran vs. Japan
3.55% - Japan vs. United Arab Emirates
3.41% - Australia vs. Uzbekistan
3.35% - Australia vs. Iran
2.83% - Iran vs. United Arab Emirates
2.71% - Japan vs. Korea Republic
2.40% - Japan vs. Jordan
2.35% - Australia vs. Oman

AFC announce major competition changes

A bit of old news.

AFC announced on 24 January 2013 they will be making major changes to the AFC Asian Cup and FIFA World Cup qualification.

Here's the most important part.

Kuwait FA publish 2015 Asian Cup preliminary seeding

Three days ago the Kuwaiti FA published the seeding for the 2015 Asian Cup preliminary draw (scheduled to take place in mid-October).

The pots are the same as those I've published on 30 March, based on info received from AFC.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2015 Asian Cup preliminary draw in October

According to AFC, "The members were informed that 20 teams, who have confirmed their entries for the qualifiers, would be drawn into five groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group and one third best-placed team from among all the groups would qualify for the Finals."

According to QFA, "On the margin of the AFC executive committee meetings, it was confirmed that the qualification stage draw for the 2015 Asian Cup - Australia will be held on October."

AFC had reserved two match days in September 2012 for a possible preliminary round (1 and 5 Sep), but they won't be used.

These are the match days (2013 and 2014):

MD 1: 6 February 2013
MD 2: 22 March 2013
MD 3: 15 October 2013
MD 4: 15 November 2013
MD 5: 19 November 2013
MD 6: 5 March 2014

Alternative match dates: 11 January 2014, 18 January 2014 and 25 January 2014. Why are they needed? Because MD 3 and 5 collide with the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup play-off.

Now, about participation. This is the list I've received from AFC (yes, they've finally replied to my e-mails!): Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, China, Bahrain, Syria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Based on the 2011 Asian Cup performance ranking, the bottom 23 will participate in the AFC Challenge Cup, while the top 23 will be involved in the main qualifiers. Obviously, the top 3 (Japan, Australia and Korea Republic) have direct entry and that leaves 20 teams to participate in the qualifiers.

Korea DPR are a special case. Although they are in the top 23, the AFC Executive Committee has allowed them to play in the AFC Challenge Cup because of difficulties in hosting home-and-away games in Korea DPR. If the North Koreans would have confirmed their participation in the main qualifiers, there would have been a preliminary round involving Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Now, there's only one problem. Based on 2011 Asian Cup performance, India are 16th. Why won't they participate in the main qualifiers? No answer from AFC (yet) regarding this.

These will be the pots for the October draw:

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Thailand should be below Yemen, but this doesn't affect the seeding.

Group of death: Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2015 AFC Asian Cup seeding

Considering AFC's dislike of the FIFA Ranking, the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance will most likely be used to seed the teams both in the qualifiers and the final tournament.

Here's the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance ranking:

 1 Japan
 2 Australia
 3 Korea Republic
 4 Uzbekistan
 5 Iran
 6 Iraq
 7 Qatar
 8 Jordan
 9 China PR
10 Bahrain
11 Syria
12 Korea DPR
13 United Arab Emirates
14 Kuwait
15 Saudi Arabia
16 India
17 Oman
18 Yemen
19 Thailand
20 Singapore
21 Vietnam
22 Indonesia
23 Lebanon
24 Hong Kong
25 Malaysia
26 Maldives

I have Iran and Iraq above Qatar because both teams lost in extra time, while the hosts lost in regular time. I don't know how AFC will handle this - it makes no difference in the qualifiers. The final seeding will also be unaffected (unless Uzbekistan fail to qualify).

Assuming AFC will use again the system with 5 groups of 4 teams with the top 2 and the best 3rd place team also qualifying, these are the pots (with Korea DPR and India participating).

First round

Pot 1: Vietnam, Indonesia, Lebanon
Pot 2: Hong Kong, Malaysia, Maldives

Group stage

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates
Pot 3: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen
Pot 4: Thailand, Singapore + play-off winners

There could be a group with Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia and Thailand.

On to the final tournament.

As mentioned before, the final seeding will also be based on the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance. Assuming India and Korea DPR again qualify through the AFC Challenge Cup and the top teams based on seeding qualify, these would be the pots for the final draw:

Pot 1: Australia (hosts), Japan, Korea Republic, Uzbekistan
Pot 2: Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Jordan
Pot 3: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR
Pot 4: United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, India

I'll post updates as soon as teams clinch qualification.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2015 AFC Asian Cup: Bad news for Saudi Arabia

AFC will most likely use the 2011 AFC Asian Cup performance to seed the teams for both the preliminary competition and the final tournament of the 2015 edition.

Outside the top 8 (quarter finalists), the standings are already known.

 9 China PR
10 Bahrain
11 Syria
12 Korea DPR
13 United Arab Emirates
14 Kuwait
15 Saudi Arabia
16 India
17 Oman
18 Yemen
19 Thailand
20 Singapore
21 Vietnam
22 Indonesia
23 Lebanon
24 Hong Kong
25 Malaysia
26 Maldives

Most likely the top 3 in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup will be automatically qualified for the 2015 edition.

if Australia finish in the top 3 and the 4th placed team gets a bye from AFC to the final tournament, or Australia don't finish in the top 3, the qualifying setup will be the same as for Qatar 2011. Assuming the same teams and Korea DPR participate in the preliminaries, here's how things will look like:

First round

Pot 1: Lebanon, Hong Kong
Pot 2: Malaysia, Maldives

Group stage

Pot 1: China PR + worst of the top 8.
Pot 2: Bahrain, Syria, Korea DPR, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, India, Oman, Yemen, Thailand
Pot 4: Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia + playoff winners

Saudi Arabia in the third pot. If Korea DPR don't enter the preliminary competition (as they did this time), Saudi Arabia will climb to the second pot.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.