AFC qualification World Cup 2022 (July 2021)

The draw for the Asian third qualification round for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar has been made some weeks ago. This is the final group stage with two groups of 6 teams. The ten group matches will be played between September and March next year.

Numbers one and two from each group qualify for Qatar. The two numbers three play a single-legged play-off in June  2022 to determine the Asian number five which will play an interconfederational play-off (also in June 2022) against an opponent from a yet unknown confederation (the CONCACAF 4th, the CONMEBOL 5th or the OFC 1st).

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Only a single match was played in the Asian qualification for the World Cup last year. The last four match days of the second round are rescheduled now for the coming March and June windows. After the Summer round three, consisting of 2 groups of 6 teams, will commence. The 12 qualified teams will be put in 6 pots of two. Which FIFA ranking (June or July) is used for seeding is yet unknown, because the publication schedule for 2021 is not yet published.

The AFC managed to keep the same qualification format. The matches for round three are now scheduled from September until March 2022. And the next step -where the Asian number 5 is determined between the two group numbers 3- is scheduled in June 2022 as a single match now. In that same June window the interconfederational play-offs (with the Asian number 5) are staged.

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):

2018 World Cup simulations (6 October 2017)

There will be no updates until Friday. Plenty of websites will publish the seeds for both the final draw and the UEFA play-offs, so there's no need to worry :)

6 October means all matches played up to and including 5 October. So no matches later than this.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (6 October 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the third match day (5 September 2017). Kyrgyz Republic bounce back and replace Myanmar in the list of teams most likely to qualify.

FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October ranking

It finally happened. I must admit I wasn't expecting this, but it's good news. Especially since this will increase the number of FAs looking to improve their ranking :) Perhaps it will finally get FIFA to change the ranking algorithm.

I think the African teams could complain as the October ranking won't include their final group stage matches - scheduled for November, but that's life.

AFC MA Ranking update (15 September 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

When losing strategically helps the motherland

Yes, I grew up under the Communist regime and I can still remember the patriotic songs we had to sing about the motherland and our beloved leader. However, these songs were always about winning for the motherland, never about losing. Yet in the world of the AFC Cup, it's better to lose sometimes.

I was looking on Wednesday over the AFC MA ranking and I was surprised by the inroads Tajikistan are making due to Istiklol's run in the AFC Cup. I realized that Tajikistan could climb to 7th in the East should Istiklol win their remaining matches.

2018 World Cup simulations (8 September 2017)

It seems while I was climbing to 1750m in the mountains, all sort of things happened. One of the most amusing was this call to arms from one of the blog readers. Ed was kind enough to answer in detail and here's the usual update of the sims.

I've added info regarding the AFC 5th place play-offs, the intercontinental play-offs and the UEFA play-offs (worst 2nd place, seeded / unseeded). Scroll to the end.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (14 July 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the second match day (13 June 2017). Great improvement for Myanmar and Philippines. On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Singapore stumbled and lost momentum.

2018 World Cup simulations (23 June 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to and including 22 June 2017.

Previous simulations (31 March 2017).

AFC MA Ranking update (19 May 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

AFC MA Ranking update (5 May 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (21 April 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the first match day. Great improvement for India.

AFC MA Ranking update (21 April 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

AFC MA Ranking update (7 April 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

AFC MA Ranking update (3 March 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding

Guam have pulled out of the competition citing financial issues. Nepal, winners of the inaugural AFC Solidarity Cup, will take Guam's place in the draw.

Kuwait have been given until 11 January to sort their issues with FIFA. If they fail, a draw will be used to determine their replacement, although I would have expected AFC to name Macau (Solidarity Cup runners-up) to be named as stand-by team. [Update: Macau will be the stand-by team according to a letter from AFC]

2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.