10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
Chances of qualification:
98.03% - Congo DR
97.75% - Mali
95.32% - Nigeria
95.20% - Ghana
93.63% - Tunisia
93.00% - Côte d'Ivoire
91.32% - Guinea
Showing posts with label ACN 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ACN 2013. Show all posts
Friday, October 12, 2012
Friday, September 7, 2012
2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (7 September 2012)
An update of the February 2012 post.
The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).
Points are awarded in this fashion:
7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage
Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.
The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).
Points are awarded in this fashion:
7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage
Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.
Friday, April 13, 2012
2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding, draw dates
CAF have announced yesterday the qualification criteria for the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations.
It the same seeding system I expect they will use for the final draw. There are some errors in their ranking. They say in case of a tie, the tie-breaker will be the number of points gained in the three tournaments (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a defeat).
Gabon should be above Nigeria (both have 14 points on the field, but Gabon have a better goal difference).
Morocco should be above Senegal (6 points vs. 2 points on the field).
Libya should be above Benin (4 points vs. 1 point on the field).
Mozambique should be above Togo (1 point vs. 0 points on the field).
South Africa should be above Namibia (2 points vs. 1 point on the field).
Official CAF ranking (pdf document).
The draw for the final qualification round will take place in the first week of July 2012.
The draw for the final tournament will take place on 26 October 2012.
It the same seeding system I expect they will use for the final draw. There are some errors in their ranking. They say in case of a tie, the tie-breaker will be the number of points gained in the three tournaments (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a defeat).
Gabon should be above Nigeria (both have 14 points on the field, but Gabon have a better goal difference).
Morocco should be above Senegal (6 points vs. 2 points on the field).
Libya should be above Benin (4 points vs. 1 point on the field).
Mozambique should be above Togo (1 point vs. 0 points on the field).
South Africa should be above Namibia (2 points vs. 1 point on the field).
Official CAF ranking (pdf document).
The draw for the final qualification round will take place in the first week of July 2012.
The draw for the final tournament will take place on 26 October 2012.
Friday, February 24, 2012
2013 African Cup of Nations qualifiers: Seeding for the final round draw (24 February 2012)
The first round is scheduled for 29 February and 15 June. Egypt vs. Central African Republic will be played on 15 and 24 June.
According to El Watan, the CAF Ranking will be used to seed the teams. What does "CAF Ranking" mean? Is it something like the one used for the final tournament draw? Then we're looking at this ranking. However, seeing CAF's sudden interest about the FIFA Ranking procedure, maybe they will use the July 2012 FIFA ranking to seed the teams for the second round draw.
Here's the July 2012 FIFA ranking - with remaining matches counted as defeats:
* - 2012 AFCON teams will enter the qualifiers in the second round
Rank - Team - Points
According to El Watan, the CAF Ranking will be used to seed the teams. What does "CAF Ranking" mean? Is it something like the one used for the final tournament draw? Then we're looking at this ranking. However, seeing CAF's sudden interest about the FIFA Ranking procedure, maybe they will use the July 2012 FIFA ranking to seed the teams for the second round draw.
Here's the July 2012 FIFA ranking - with remaining matches counted as defeats:
* - 2012 AFCON teams will enter the qualifiers in the second round
Rank - Team - Points
1 Côte d'Ivoire * 893 2 Ghana * 672 3 Mali * 597 4 Zambia * 595 5 Gabon * 581 6 Libya * 531 7 Tunisia * 522 8 Algeria 469 9 Egypt 463 10 Nigeria 440 11 Cameroon 421 12 Morocco * 413 13 Senegal * 410 14 Guinea * 403 15 Burkina Faso * 386 16 Angola * 382 17 Sierra Leone 364 18 Cape Verde Islands 334 19 Uganda 324 20 Zimbabwe 299 21 Malawi 286 22 Niger * 282 22 Sudan * 282 24 Togo 280 25 Botswana * 269 26 Mozambique 264 27 Equatorial Guinea * 261 28 Rwanda 233 29 Namibia 232 30 Central African Republic 222 31 Benin 220 32 Gambia 214 33 Chad 196 33 Kenya 196 33 Congo DR 196 36 Tanzania 191 37 Congo 189 38 Liberia 181 39 Burundi 162 40 Ethiopia 157 41 Madagascar 115 42 Guinea-Bissau 103 43 Sao Tome e Principe 94 44 Seychelles 46
2013 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (24 February 2012)
CAF Ranking system
The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).
Points are awarded in this fashion:
7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage
Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.
If two or more teams have the same total, they will be ranked on the total number of points (3 for a win, 1 for a loss).
Rank - Team - ACN 2008 - ACN 2010 - ACN 2012 - Total
If the top 15 teams in the February 2012 FIFA ranking qualify, these will be the pots:
Pot 1: South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire
Pot 2: Egypt, Mali, Tunisia, Cameroon
Pot 3: Gabon, Nigeria, Algeria, Guinea
Pot 4: Morocco, Senegal, Libya, Sierra Leone
The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).
Points are awarded in this fashion:
7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage
Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.
If two or more teams have the same total, they will be ranked on the total number of points (3 for a win, 1 for a loss).
Rank - Team - ACN 2008 - ACN 2010 - ACN 2012 - Total
| 1 | Zambia | 1 | 2 | 7 | 26 |
| 2 | Ghana | 3 | 5 | 3 | 22 |
| 3 | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Egypt | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | Mali | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Tunisia | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Cameroon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Angola | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Gabon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Nigeria | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Sudan | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Algeria | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Equatorial Guinea | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Guinea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | Burkina Faso | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Morocco | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | Senegal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Libya | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Benin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Niger | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 21 | Botswana | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 22 | Malawi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 23 | Mozambique | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 24 | Togo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 25 | South Africa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Namibia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
If the top 15 teams in the February 2012 FIFA ranking qualify, these will be the pots:
Pot 1: South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire
Pot 2: Egypt, Mali, Tunisia, Cameroon
Pot 3: Gabon, Nigeria, Algeria, Guinea
Pot 4: Morocco, Senegal, Libya, Sierra Leone
Friday, October 28, 2011
2013 Africa Cup of Nations: A look at the qualification
In September 2010, CAF announced the qualifying system for the 2013 edition.
Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.
IfLibya South Africa doesn’t qualify for the Orange CAN 2012, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will play home and away play-off and the winner will participate in the second round qualifiers.
I doubt they will trim the field to 15 teams during that period. Most likely it will be only a preliminary round. Here's why.Looking at the CAF 2014 World Cup calendar and at FIFA's match dates for 2012, you'll notice there are two conspicuous double match dates available for CAF: 7-11 September and 12-16 October.
There are 37 teams that didn't qualify for the 2012 edition. With South Africa hosting the 2013 event, that leaves 36 teams. Of course, that doesn't mean all 36 will want to play in the 2013 preliminaries.
The preliminary round should involve the bottom 12 teams in the FIFA rankings to trim the field to 30 teams.
Probably the second round will be in September, with the final round scheduled for October.
In 2010, the draw took place at the 2010 CAF Super Cup, on 20 February 2010. Next year this event is scheduled for 24-26 February, with the February 2012 FIFA Ranking set to be published on 15 February.
Looking at the intermediate February 2012 ranking, this is how the qualification could look:
Preliminary round
Pot 1: Guinea-Bissau, Swaziland, Madagascar, Lesotho, Seychelles, Comoros
Pot 2: Mauritius, Somalia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Djibouti, Sao Tome e Principe
Second round
Pot 1: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Zimbabwe, Algeria, Malawi, Cameroon, Uganda, Gambia, Central African Republic, Togo, Benin, Mozambique, Rwanda
Pot 2: Kenya, Tanzania, Congo DR, Ethiopia, Liberia, Congo, Namibia, Burundi, Chad plus six winners from the previous round.
Final round
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Libya, Guinea, Mali, Tunisia, Angola, Zambia, Morocco, Niger, Botswana, Sudan and the winner of Gabon/Equatorial Guinea
Pot 2: 15 winners from the previous round
It's quite possible to see matches like Côte d'Ivoire vs. Egypt, Ghana vs. Nigeria, Senegal vs. Cameroon or Morocco vs. Algeria in the final round.
This could be a disaster for CAF - and the sales of TV rights. In order to protect their flagship competition, CAF might create four pots in the final round.
Pot 1: Top 8 from the 2012 edition
Pot 2: the remaining 7 teams
Pot 3: Top 7 from the February 2012 FIFA ranking
Pot 4: the other 8 teams
and draw Pot 1 vs. Pot 4 and Pot 2 vs. Pot 3.
Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.
If
I doubt they will trim the field to 15 teams during that period. Most likely it will be only a preliminary round. Here's why.Looking at the CAF 2014 World Cup calendar and at FIFA's match dates for 2012, you'll notice there are two conspicuous double match dates available for CAF: 7-11 September and 12-16 October.
There are 37 teams that didn't qualify for the 2012 edition. With South Africa hosting the 2013 event, that leaves 36 teams. Of course, that doesn't mean all 36 will want to play in the 2013 preliminaries.
The preliminary round should involve the bottom 12 teams in the FIFA rankings to trim the field to 30 teams.
Probably the second round will be in September, with the final round scheduled for October.
In 2010, the draw took place at the 2010 CAF Super Cup, on 20 February 2010. Next year this event is scheduled for 24-26 February, with the February 2012 FIFA Ranking set to be published on 15 February.
Looking at the intermediate February 2012 ranking, this is how the qualification could look:
Preliminary round
Pot 1: Guinea-Bissau, Swaziland, Madagascar, Lesotho, Seychelles, Comoros
Pot 2: Mauritius, Somalia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Djibouti, Sao Tome e Principe
Second round
Pot 1: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Zimbabwe, Algeria, Malawi, Cameroon, Uganda, Gambia, Central African Republic, Togo, Benin, Mozambique, Rwanda
Pot 2: Kenya, Tanzania, Congo DR, Ethiopia, Liberia, Congo, Namibia, Burundi, Chad plus six winners from the previous round.
Final round
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Libya, Guinea, Mali, Tunisia, Angola, Zambia, Morocco, Niger, Botswana, Sudan and the winner of Gabon/Equatorial Guinea
Pot 2: 15 winners from the previous round
It's quite possible to see matches like Côte d'Ivoire vs. Egypt, Ghana vs. Nigeria, Senegal vs. Cameroon or Morocco vs. Algeria in the final round.
This could be a disaster for CAF - and the sales of TV rights. In order to protect their flagship competition, CAF might create four pots in the final round.
Pot 1: Top 8 from the 2012 edition
Pot 2: the remaining 7 teams
Pot 3: Top 7 from the February 2012 FIFA ranking
Pot 4: the other 8 teams
and draw Pot 1 vs. Pot 4 and Pot 2 vs. Pot 3.
Friday, September 24, 2010
2013 Africa Cup of Nations: Official qualifying system
CAF have announced the details of the qualifying system. Part of it was already described by Issa Hayatou last week.
Here's the official CAF announcement:
"Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.
If necessary, if the number of teams involved exceeds 45, a preliminary round would be organised. In this case, the criteria for the teams to undergo a preliminary round will depend on FIFA ranking.
The second round of qualifiers , also through direct elimination, will witness the fifteen qualified teams of the first round qualifiers to play against the fifteen teams (except Libya, host country of the 2013 edition and by consequence already qualified) that would have participated at the 2012 CAN, after complete draws.
If the Libyan team qualifies for the Orange CAN 2012, the fifteen other teams will directly play the second qualifying round of the 2013 CAN.
If Libya doesn’t qualify for the Orange CAN 2012, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will play home and away play-off and the winner will participate in the second round qualifiers ."
Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will surely be rooting for Libya to qualify for the 2012 finals.
Here's the official CAF announcement:
"Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.
If necessary, if the number of teams involved exceeds 45, a preliminary round would be organised. In this case, the criteria for the teams to undergo a preliminary round will depend on FIFA ranking.
The second round of qualifiers , also through direct elimination, will witness the fifteen qualified teams of the first round qualifiers to play against the fifteen teams (except Libya, host country of the 2013 edition and by consequence already qualified) that would have participated at the 2012 CAN, after complete draws.
If the Libyan team qualifies for the Orange CAN 2012, the fifteen other teams will directly play the second qualifying round of the 2013 CAN.
If Libya doesn’t qualify for the Orange CAN 2012, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will play home and away play-off and the winner will participate in the second round qualifiers ."
Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will surely be rooting for Libya to qualify for the 2012 finals.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
2013 Africa Cup of Nations: Qualifying system announced
Issa Hayatou, president of the Confederation of African Football (CAF), described the qualifying system in an interview published on the Burkinabe portal LeFaso.net.
"Pour les qualifications, la formule est trouvée. Elle se déroulera en deux étapes. Déjà nous considérons les 16 qui auront jouer la phase finale en 2012 comme des exemptés du premier tour des qualifications. Les autres pays qui ne seront pas à la CAN vont s’affronter pour 16 places à prendre.
Une fois cette étape bouclée, il y aura une confrontation entre les 16 issues des qualifications et les 16 autres qui ont joué la phase finale de la CAN. Un tirage au sort sera fait et chacune des 16 finalistes de la CAN 2012 passée disputera en aller-retour, un ticket direct pour la CAN 2013. En clair, les 16 finalistes n’auront à disputer que 2 matchs avec le même adversaire alors que les autres joueront plus de matchs car il a fallu dégraisser pour ne garder que les 16 meilleures. Toutes les précautions ont été prises. Les garanties sont là. Tout est ok."
The qualifying system will have two stages.
"Pour les qualifications, la formule est trouvée. Elle se déroulera en deux étapes. Déjà nous considérons les 16 qui auront jouer la phase finale en 2012 comme des exemptés du premier tour des qualifications. Les autres pays qui ne seront pas à la CAN vont s’affronter pour 16 places à prendre.
Une fois cette étape bouclée, il y aura une confrontation entre les 16 issues des qualifications et les 16 autres qui ont joué la phase finale de la CAN. Un tirage au sort sera fait et chacune des 16 finalistes de la CAN 2012 passée disputera en aller-retour, un ticket direct pour la CAN 2013. En clair, les 16 finalistes n’auront à disputer que 2 matchs avec le même adversaire alors que les autres joueront plus de matchs car il a fallu dégraisser pour ne garder que les 16 meilleures. Toutes les précautions ont été prises. Les garanties sont là. Tout est ok."
The qualifying system will have two stages.
- A preliminary stage to trim the number of teams down to 16. The 16 ACN 2012 finalists won't be involved. The format of this stage (straight knock-out, group stage, mix of both?) is unknown.
- A final stage involving the 16 teams qualified from the preliminary stage and the 16 ACN 2012 finalists. It will be straight knock-out stage (home and away) with the winners qualifying for the ACN 2013 (hosted by Libya).
- If Libya qualify for the 2012 finals, only 15 teams will qualify through the preliminary stage and they will meet the 15 ACN 2012 finalists.
- If Libya fail to qualify for the 2012 finals, only 14 teams will qualify through the preliminary stage.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)