2013 Africa Cup of Nations: A look at the qualification

In September 2010, CAF announced the qualifying system for the 2013 edition.

Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.

If Libya South Africa doesn’t qualify for the Orange CAN 2012, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will play home and away play-off and the winner will participate in the second round qualifiers.

I doubt they will trim the field to 15 teams during that period. Most likely it will be only a preliminary round. Here's why.Looking at the CAF 2014 World Cup calendar and at FIFA's match dates for 2012, you'll notice there are two conspicuous double match dates available for CAF: 7-11 September and 12-16 October.

There are 37 teams that didn't qualify for the 2012 edition. With South Africa hosting the 2013 event, that leaves 36 teams. Of course, that doesn't mean all 36 will want to play in the 2013 preliminaries.

The preliminary round should involve the bottom 12 teams in the FIFA rankings to trim the field to 30 teams.

Probably the second round will be in September, with the final round scheduled for October.

In 2010, the draw took place at the 2010 CAF Super Cup, on 20 February 2010. Next year this event is scheduled for 24-26 February, with the February 2012 FIFA Ranking set to be published on 15 February.


Looking at the intermediate February 2012 ranking, this is how the qualification could look:

Preliminary round

Pot 1: Guinea-Bissau, Swaziland, Madagascar, Lesotho, Seychelles, Comoros
Pot 2: Mauritius, Somalia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Djibouti, Sao Tome e Principe

Second round

Pot 1: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Zimbabwe, Algeria, Malawi, Cameroon, Uganda, Gambia, Central African Republic, Togo, Benin, Mozambique, Rwanda
Pot 2: Kenya, Tanzania, Congo DR, Ethiopia, Liberia, Congo, Namibia, Burundi, Chad plus six winners from the previous round.

Final round

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Libya, Guinea, Mali, Tunisia, Angola, Zambia, Morocco, Niger, Botswana, Sudan and the winner of Gabon/Equatorial Guinea
Pot 2: 15 winners from the previous round

It's quite possible to see matches like Côte d'Ivoire vs. Egypt, Ghana vs. Nigeria, Senegal vs. Cameroon or Morocco vs. Algeria in the final round.

This could be a disaster for CAF - and the sales of TV rights. In order to protect their flagship competition, CAF might create four pots in the final round.

Pot 1: Top 8 from the 2012 edition
Pot 2: the remaining 7 teams
Pot 3: Top 7 from the February 2012 FIFA ranking
Pot 4: the other 8 teams

and draw Pot 1 vs. Pot 4 and Pot 2 vs. Pot 3.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2012 African Cup of Nations: Official seeding for the final draw

The draw will take place on October 29th.

See the official seeding: CAFOnline.com (PDF file).

Pot 1: Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire
Pot 2: Angola, Tunisia, Zambia, Guinea
Pot 3: Mali, Senegal, Morocco, Burkina Faso
Pot 4: Sudan, Libya, Botswana, Niger

Here's the full table, including the teams that failed to qualify:

Egypt (1st with 42 points), Cameroon (3rd - 18), Nigeria (5th - 16) and Algeria (9th - 9points) are the biggest missing names.

Team         ACN'06 ACN'08 ACN'10 Total Pts Goals
-------------------------------------------------------
 1 Egypt             7      7      7    42
 2 Ghana             1      3      5    22
 3 Cameroon          2      5      2    18
 4 Côte d'Ivoire     5      3      2    17
 5 Nigeria           3      2      3    16
 6 Angola            1      2      2    11
 7 Tunisia           2      2      1     9   15
 8 Zambia            1      1      2     9   12
 9 Algeria           0      0      3     9    7
10 Guinea            2      2      0     6
11 Mali              0      1      1     5    8  (8-9)
12 Senegal           3      1      0     5    8  (11-14)
13 Benin             0      1      1     5    1
14 Togo              1      0      1     4
15 Morocco           1      1      0     3    5
16 Gabon             0      0      1     3    4
17 Malawi            0      0      1     3    3
18 South Africa      1      1      0     3    2
19 Burkina Faso      0      0      1     3    1  (0-1)
20 Mozambique        0      0      1     3    1  (2-7)
21 Congo DR          2      0      0     2    4
22 Namibia           0      1      0     2    1
23 Sudan             0      1      0     2    0
24 Zimbabwe          1      0      0     1    3
25 Libya             1      0      0     1    1

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2012 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (16 September 2011)

See the first AFCON seeding post for more details.

Bostwana, Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Senegal have already qualified.

Removed from the table: Egypt, Cameroon, Congo DR, Benin, Mozambique and Namibia.

   Team         ACN'06 ACN'08 ACN'10 Total Pts Goals
-------------------------------------------------------
 1 Ghana             1      3      5    22
 2 Côte d'Ivoire     5      3      2    17
 3 Nigeria           3      2      3    16
 4 Angola            1      2      2    11
 5 Tunisia           2      2      1     9   15
 6 Zambia            1      1      2     9   12
 7 Algeria           0      0      3     9    7
 8 Guinea            2      2      0     6
 9 Mali              0      1      1     5    8  (8-9)
10 Senegal           3      1      0     5    8  (11-14)
11 Morocco           1      1      0     3    5
12 Gabon             0      0      1     3    4
13 Malawi            0      0      1     3    3
14 South Africa      1      1      0     3    2
15 Burkina Faso      0      0      1     3    1  (0-1)
16 Sudan             0      1      0     2    0
17 Zimbabwe          1      0      0     1    3
18 Libya             1      0      0     1    1

If the teams with the best coefficient qualify, this is how the pots would look like (teams in bold already qualified):

Pot 1: Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire
Pot 2: Nigeria, Angola, Tunisia, Zambia
Pot 3: Algeria, Guinea, Mali, Senegal
Pot 4: Morocco, Malawi, Burkina Faso, Botswana

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2012 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (6 May 2011)

It's been 1 year and 3 months since the first 2012 Afcon seeding post. In the meantime, Botswana have clinched a spot at the finals, while Togo have been eliminated.

So here's an updated seeding table (Togo removed):

Team         ACN'06 ACN'08 ACN'10 Total Pts Goals
-------------------------------------------------------
 1 Egypt             7      7      7    42
 2 Ghana             1      3      5    22
 3 Cameroon          2      5      2    18
 4 Côte d'Ivoire     5      3      2    17
 5 Nigeria           3      2      3    16
 6 Angola            1      2      2    11
 7 Tunisia           2      2      1     9   15
 8 Zambia            1      1      2     9   12
 9 Algeria           0      0      3     9    7
10 Guinea            2      2      0     6
11 Mali              0      1      1     5    8  (8-9)
12 Senegal           3      1      0     5    8  (11-14)
13 Benin             0      1      1     5    1
14 Morocco           1      1      0     3    5
15 Gabon             0      0      1     3    4
16 Malawi            0      0      1     3    3
17 South Africa      1      1      0     3    2
18 Burkina Faso      0      0      1     3    1  (0-1)
19 Mozambique        0      0      1     3    1  (2-7)
20 Congo DR          2      0      0     2    4
21 Namibia           0      1      0     2    1
22 Sudan             0      1      0     2    0
23 Zimbabwe          1      0      0     1    3
24 Libya             1      0      0     1    1

If the top 13 qualify, this is how the pots would look like (teams in bold already qualified):

Pot 1: Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt, Ghana
Pot 2: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Angola
Pot 3: Tunisia, Zambia, Algeria, Guinea
Pot 4: Mali, Senegal, Benin, Botswana

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Nigeria suspended by FIFA

FIFA have suspended Nigeria for government interference.

More info in this Yahoo! Canada News article.

Nigeria were due to meet Guinea away on October 10th in an 2012 Africa Cup of Nations qualifier. The other teams in Group B are Madagascar and Ethiopia. Nigeria and Guinea both have 3 points after the first round of matches.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2013 Africa Cup of Nations: Official qualifying system

CAF have announced the details of the qualifying system. Part of it was already described by Issa Hayatou last week.

Here's the official CAF announcement:

"Countries that do not qualify for the Orange CAN Gabon – Equatorial Guinea 2012 will play a first round eliminatory, with direct elimination, with a view to finding fifteen teams. The period from 15 January 2012 to 15 February 2012 was chosen for this first round.

If necessary, if the number of teams involved exceeds 45, a preliminary round would be organised. In this case, the criteria for the teams to undergo a preliminary round will depend on FIFA ranking.

The second round of qualifiers , also through direct elimination, will witness the fifteen qualified teams of the first round qualifiers to play against the fifteen teams (except Libya, host country of the 2013 edition and by consequence already qualified) that would have participated at the 2012 CAN, after complete draws.

If the Libyan team qualifies for the Orange CAN 2012, the fifteen other teams will directly play the second qualifying round of the 2013 CAN.

If Libya doesn’t qualify for the Orange CAN 2012, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will play home and away play-off and the winner will participate in the second round qualifiers ."

Gabon and Equatorial Guinea will surely be rooting for Libya to qualify for the 2012 finals.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2013 Africa Cup of Nations: Qualifying system announced

Issa Hayatou, president of the Confederation of African Football (CAF), described the qualifying system in an interview published on the Burkinabe portal LeFaso.net.

"Pour les qualifications, la formule est trouvée. Elle se déroulera en deux étapes. Déjà nous considérons les 16 qui auront jouer la phase finale en 2012 comme des exemptés du premier tour des qualifications. Les autres pays qui ne seront pas à la CAN vont s’affronter pour 16 places à prendre.

Une fois cette étape bouclée, il y aura une confrontation entre les 16 issues des qualifications et les 16 autres qui ont joué la phase finale de la CAN. Un tirage au sort sera fait et chacune des 16 finalistes de la CAN 2012 passée disputera en aller-retour, un ticket direct pour la CAN 2013. En clair, les 16 finalistes n’auront à disputer que 2 matchs avec le même adversaire alors que les autres joueront plus de matchs car il a fallu dégraisser pour ne garder que les 16 meilleures. Toutes les précautions ont été prises. Les garanties sont là. Tout est ok."

The qualifying system will have two stages.

1. A preliminary stage to trim the number of teams down to 16. The 16 ACN 2012 finalists won't be involved. The format of this stage (straight knock-out, group stage, mix of both?) is unknown.
2. A final stage involving the 16 teams qualified from the preliminary stage and the 16 ACN 2012 finalists. It will be straight knock-out stage (home and away) with the winners qualifying for the ACN 2013 (hosted by Libya).

There must be something wrong about it. Only 15 places are available, not 16, thus only 30 teams will play in the final stage, not 32. What happens with Libya?

1. If Libya qualify for the 2012 finals, only 15 teams will qualify through the preliminary stage and they will meet the 15 ACN 2012 finalists.
2. If Libya fail to qualify for the 2012 finals, only 14 teams will qualify through the preliminary stage.
   

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations 2012: Seeding and draw

CAF changed the seeding criteria and it did an actual draw, so all my work was basically in vain :)

Full details on the draw on CAFOnline.com.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Is it too much to ask?

As you can see in the header section of this site, there a line of text - 18 words.

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.

Pretty easy to understand. Probably not for Bonnie Mugabe of Rwanda's New Times. Mr. Mugabe copied data from this website and completely forgot to mention the source.

This is the New Times article:

2012 CAN seedings out

and this is my post:

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers

Not only did he copy info from my website, but he chose the wrong post. The updated info can be found here:

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (1 February 2010)

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2012 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (1 February 2010)

CAF Ranking system

The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).

Points are awarded in this fashion:

7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage

Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.

If two or more teams have the same total, they will be ranked on the total number of points (3 for a win, 1 for a loss).

More info on the seeding system -> CAFOnline.com

    Team         ACN'06 ACN'08 ACN'10 Total Pts Goals
-------------------------------------------------------
 1 Egypt             7      7      7    42
 2 Ghana             1      3      5    22
 3 Cameroon          2      5      2    18
 4 Côte d'Ivoire     5      3      2    17
 5 Nigeria           3      2      3    16
 6 Angola            1      2      2    11
 7 Tunisia           2      2      1     9   15
 8 Zambia            1      1      2     9   12
 9 Algeria           0      0      3     9    7
10 Guinea            2      2      0     6
11 Mali              0      1      1     5    8  (8-9)
12 Senegal           3      1      0     5    8  (11-14)
13 Benin             0      1      1     5    1
14 Togo              1      0      1     4
15 Morocco           1      1      0     3    5
16 Gabon             0      0      1     3    4
17 Malawi            0      0      1     3    3
18 South Africa      1      1      0     3    2
19 Burkina Faso      0      0      1     3    1  (0-1)
20 Mozambique        0      0      1     3    1  (2-7)
21 Congo DR          2      0      0     2    4
22 Namibia           0      1      0     2    1
23 Sudan             0      1      0     2    0
24 Zimbabwe          1      0      0     1    3
25 Libya             1      0      0     1    1

If the top 14 from this table qualify (with Togo banned, Morocco are in the top 14), these would be the pots for the final draw:

Pot 1: Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt, Ghana
Pot 2: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Angola
Pot 3: Tunisia, Zambia, Algeria, Guinea
Pot 4: Mali, Senegal, Benin, Morocco

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (1 February 2010)

Detailed explanation of the seeding method.

There are 43 countries that have confirmed their participation. Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritania, Sao Tome e Principe, The Seychelles and Sudan can still do so, while Togo are banned for the next two editions.

The draw will take place during the final of the CAF Super Cup - on February 20th.

On Saturday I received an e-mail from a CAF official with a list of countries that hadn't yet confirmed their participation. Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritania and Sudan were not on that list, while Somalia, Djibouti and Cape Verde Islands were on the list, but they probably confirmed their participation.

With 43 members and 14 available spots, the most likely qualifying setup is one with 10 groups of 4 teams and one of 3 teams.

Here are the groups:

Group 1: Egypt, Gambia, Swaziland, Central African Republic
Group 2: Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Djibouti
Group 3: Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia
Group 4: Algeria, Uganda, Botswana, Mauritius
Group 5: Côte d'Ivoire, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Comoros
Group 6: Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Niger
Group 7: Tunisia, Guinea, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 8: Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Madagascar
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi
Group 10: Zambia, Mozambique, Congo, Chad
Group 11: Benin, Angola, Cape Verde Islands

Group winners and the best three runners-up from groups 1 - 10 qualify for the final tournament.

Since CAF banned Togo for government interference, there's the possibility of CAF awarding 3 points to Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Burkina Faso. In this case, the groups would look like this:

Group 1: Egypt, Gambia, Swaziland, Central African Republic
Group 2: Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Djibouti
Group 3: Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia
Group 4: Nigeria, Uganda, Botswana, Mauritius
Group 5: Algeria, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Comoros
Group 6: Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Niger
Group 7: Burkina Faso, Guinea, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 8: Tunisia, Morocco, Namibia, Madagascar
Group 9: Mali, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi
Group 10: Zambia, Mozambique, Congo, Chad
Group 11: Benin, Angola, Cape Verde Islands

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (29 January 2010)

Detailed explanation of the seeding method.

The third place match won't affect the final ranking, as both Nigeria and Algeria will remain with 6 bonus points - as semifinalists.

It's between Ghana and Egypt - whoever wins the final, will also be in Group 1, as both teams are tied on 31 points.

The rest of the groups (from 3 through 13) are already set in stone if CAF will use the same system as in 2006.

Group 1: Egypt/Ghana, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Ghana/Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Nigeria, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Algeria, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Cameroon, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Benin, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania

I apreciate the effort made by an unregistered Wikipedian on the 2012 Africa Nations Cup qualification article, but I don't think this info should be on Wikipedia as it's not yet official.

According to an e-mail I received from CAF no team has withdrawn from the qualifiers. Probably some teams will withdraw after the groups are announced.

CAF could also choose a system with 14 groups - only the winners advacing to the 2012 ACN. However, they had a similar option in 2006. 47 teams and 15 available places - 13 groups of 3 geams and 2 of 4 teams, with only the winner advancing. Instead they chose the system that would have the most groups with 4 teams.

Anyway, this is how the groups would look like in a 14-group setup:

Group 1: Egypt/Ghana, Namibia, Niger, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Ghana/Egypt, Tanzania, Mauritania, Central African Republic
Group 3: Nigeria, Congo, Liberia, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Algeria, Cape Verde Islands, Madagascar, Djibouti
Group 5: Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Lesotho, Somalia
Group 6: Cameroon, Senegal, Burundi, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, South Africa, Chad, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Uganda, Swaziland, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Rwanda, Ethiopia
Group 11: Benin, Kenya, Botswana
Group 12: Angola, Guinea, Zimbabwe
Group 13: Mozambique, Morocco, Libya
Group 14: Togo, Malawi, Congo DR

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (27 January 2010)

Detailed explanation of the seeding method.

These are the groups before the 2010 ACN semifinals:

Group 1: Nigeria, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Algeria, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Egypt, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Ghana, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Cameroon, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Benin, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania

Groups 6 to 13 are pretty much locked, because only Zimbabwe are able to improve their ranking by drawing or winning their friendly against South Africa. They can overtake Libya with a draw and could further overtake Congo DR and Namibia with a win.

1 - Rank in the 2012 ACN seeding
2 - Team
3 - January 2010 CAF ranking (i.e. FIFA ranking within CAF)
4 - Points in the last group stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers
5 - Bonus points for FIFA World Cup qualification (6 points)
6 - Angola 2010 group stage points
7 - Angola 2010 bonus points (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)

 1 Nigeria                   3 12 6 6 6 30
 2 Algeria                   5 13 6 4 6 29
 3 Côte d'Ivoire             4 16 6 4 3 29
 4 Egypt                     1 13 0 9 6 28
 5 Ghana                     6 13 6 3 6 28

The order of the top 5 can change after the semifinals and final.

Nigeria (1, 2, 3)
Algeria (1, 2, 3, 4)
Côte d'Ivoire (3, 4, 5)
Egypt (1, 2, 4, 5)
Ghana (1, 2, 5)

I wrote to CAF asking which teams chose not to take part in the ACN 2012 qualifiers. Hopefully, someone will be able to answer.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (24 January 2010)

These are the groups (in 2006 there was no actual draw - see the seeding and draw procedure used in 2006) based on matches up to and including January 21st.

There are plenty of questions though.

Because I've seen some people didn't understand the system CAF used in 2006 for the 2008 ACN preliminaries, I'll try to give more details in this post.

Here's the ranking after January 24th.

The seeding formula is the sum of:

• 2010 WCQ points
• bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  
• 2010 ACN group stage points
• 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)

The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking (to be published by FIFA on February 3rd).

Order of columns:

1 - Rank in the 2012 ACN seeding
2 - Team
3 - January 2010 CAF ranking (i.e. FIFA ranking within CAF)
4 - Points in the last group stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers
5 - Bonus points for FIFA World Cup qualification (6 points)
6 - Angola 2010 group stage points
7 - Angola 2010 bonus points (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)

If teams are tied, these are the tie-breaking criteria:

1 - Angola 2010 bonus points
2 - Angola 2010 group stage points
3 - 2010 World Cup bonus points
4 - 2010 World Cup points in the last group stage
5 - January 2010 FIFA Ranking

The first seed (ranked 1st) will be group with the lowest ranked seed from each of the other three pots. This means Group 1 will feature teams ranked 1st, 26th, 39th and 51st, Group 2 will feature teams ranked 2nd, 25th, 38th and 50th and so on, with Group 13 featuring only 3 teams ranked 13th, 14th and 27th.

 1 Algeria                   5 13 6 4 6 29
 2 Côte d'Ivoire             4 16 6 4 3 29
 3 Ghana                     6 13 6 3 6 28
 4 Nigeria                   3 12 6 6 3 27
 5 Cameroon                  2 13 6 4 3 26
 6 Egypt                     1 13 0 9 3 25
 7 Tunisia                  10 11 0 3   14
 8 Mali                      9  9 0 4   13
 9 Burkina Faso              8 12 0 1   13
10 Zambia                   15  5 0 4 3 12
11 Benin                    12 10 0 1   11
12 Angola                   19  0 0 5 3  8
13 Mozambique               17  7 0 1    8
------------------------------------------
14 Togo                     13  8 0 0    8
15 Malawi                   16  4 0 3    7
16 Morocco                  11  3 0      3
17 Guinea                   20  3 0      3
18 Kenya                    30  3 0      3
19 Rwanda                   25  2 0      2
20 Sudan                    27  1 0      1
21 Uganda                   14
22 South Africa             18
23 Senegal                  21
24 Gambia                   22
25 Cape Verde Islands       23
26 Congo                    24
------------------------------------------
27 Tanzania                 26
28 Namibia                  28
29 Congo DR                 29
30 Libya                    31
31 Zimbabwe                 32
32 Botswana                 33
33 Ethiopia                 34
34 Sierra Leone             35
35 Swaziland                36
36 Chad                     38
37 Burundi                  39
38 Lesotho                  40
39 Madagascar               41
------------------------------------------
40 Liberia                  42
41 Mauritania               43
42 Niger                    44
43 Eritrea                  45
44 Comoros                  46
45 Seychelles               47
46 Mauritius                48
47 Somalia                  49
48 Djibouti                 50
49 Guinea-Bissau            51
50 Central African Republic 52
51 Sao Tome e Principe      53

Zambia can't reach the top 6. Even if they win the whole thing, they will have only 21 points. If they knock-out Nigeria, they'll climb to 7th. The last three teams in the first pot are also set in stone.
There's also a South Africa - Zimbabwe friendly on January 27th. This result won't affect South Africa's position in the seeding list as they can't overtake Uganda and they can't fall behind Senegal. Zimbabwe on the other hand can overtake Libya with a draw and they could further pass by Congo DR and Namibia with a win.

If CAF use the same system as 4 years ago and no team withdraws from the qualifiers, one group is already set - Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania.

We also have some fixed match-ups:

Benin - Morocco
Angola - Malawi
Congo - Madagascar
Cape Verde Islands - Lesotho
Gambia - Burundi
Senegal - Chad
South Africa - Swaziland
Uganda - Sierra Leone
Sudan - Ethiopia
Rwanda - Botswana

These are the groups based on the system used 4 years ago and results up to and including January 24th:

Group 1: Algeria, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Côte d'Ivoire, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Ghana, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Nigeria, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Cameroon, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Benin, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (21 January 2010)

These are the groups (in 2006 there was no actual draw - see the seeding and draw procedure used in 2006) based on matches up to and including January 21st.

There are plenty of questions though.

Zambia replace Togo in the first pot.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Nigeria, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Cameroon, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Algeria, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Egypt, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Ghana, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Benin, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (19 January 2010)

The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up from groups of 4 teams qualifying.

These are the groups (in 2006 there was no actual draw - see the seeding and draw procedure used in 2006) based on matches up to and including January 19th.

Angola move to the first pot, Malawi drop to the second pot.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Algeria, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Ghana, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Egypt, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Cameroon, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Nigeria, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Mali, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Tunisia, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Benin, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Angola, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Zambia, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Togo, Malawi, Tanzania

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (17 January 2010)

The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up from groups of 4 teams qualifying.

These are the groups (in 2006 there was no actual draw - see the seeding and draw procedure used in 2006) based on matches up to and including January 17th.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Cameroon, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Algeria, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Ghana, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Burkina Faso, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Benin, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Mali, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Mozambique, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Togo, Angola, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Malawi, Zambia, Tanzania

There are plenty of questions though.

1. Will CAF use the same formula as in 2006?
   
2. Will points from the first WCQ group stage be included in the formula?
3. Will South Africa be awarded 6 points for WC participation?
4. How will CAF fix the anomaly created by Togo's withdrawal (i.e. fewer points for Group B teams)?
5. Will all 51 members compete in the qualifiers? If at least 3 members don't enter the qualifying rounds, we'll probably see 12 groups of 4 teams with the winners and the top two runners-up joining the hosts in 2012.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (8 January 2010)

The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

More info on the seeding and draw procedure.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying.

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Uganda, South Africa, Senegal, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Zimbabwe, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Eritrea, Niger, Seychelles, Comoros, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe

I think there won't be any friendly matches during Angola 2010, so the last two pots are pretty much set in stone. Only Gambia can improve their position if they don't lose against Tunisia tomorrow.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Senegal, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, Uganda, Ethiopia, Comoros
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Seychelles
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Niger
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Gambia, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Namibia

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers

This may seem a bit early, but it's not. The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

Based on the 2008 ACN draw procedure, it won't actually be a draw. The first seeded team will be placed with the weakest team from each of the other three pots.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying. However, if at least 3 members don't enter the qualifying rounds, we'll probably see 12 groups of 4 teams with the winners and the top two runners-up joining the hosts in 2012.

The "usual suspects" to drop from qualifying:

2006 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic withdrew.

2008 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic, Comoros, Somalia and São Tomé and Príncipe did not enter.
Guinea-Bissau were not allowed to enter.
Djibouti withdrew.

2010 ACN qualifiers:

São Tomé and Príncipe and the Central African Republic withdrew.

The seeding formula is the sum of:

• 2010 WCQ points
• bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  
• 2010 ACN group stage points
• 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)
  

The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking.

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Zimbabwe, Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Niger, Eritrea, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe

I didn't give South Africa the bonus points for WC participation, because they didn't even reach the final CAF qualifying round.
With the exception of Angola, no team below Sudan can break in the top 19.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Uganda, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Eritrea
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Gambia, Niger
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.