2018 version here.
First of all, I must say I'm against the expansion - and I'm saying this as a fan of a team that hasn't been to the World Cup since 1998. Further more, to quote the late David Taylor, I would like to disabuse anyone of the notion that I would embrace the expansion idea as it would give Romania a better chance of qualifying. More on this later in the post.
Showing posts with label 2014 FIFA World Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 FIFA World Cup. Show all posts
Friday, March 31, 2017
Friday, July 4, 2014
2014 World Cup Castrol Index bottom 11
See the 2010 World Cup bottom 11 and EURO 2012 bottom 11.
Based on the Castrol Index.
Restricting the field to players that have played in at least 50% of the team playing time (i.e. 135 minutes for a team knocked out in the group stage).
Bottom 10 goalkeepers
Based on the Castrol Index.
Restricting the field to players that have played in at least 50% of the team playing time (i.e. 135 minutes for a team knocked out in the group stage).
Bottom 10 goalkeepers
Friday, June 27, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (27 June 2014)
10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
See the simulations from one week ago.
Top 10 most likely finals:
11.46% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
8.55% - Argentina vs. Brazil
7.45% - Germany vs. Netherlands
5.68% - Argentina vs. Germany
3.85% - Brazil vs. Mexico
3.75% - Belgium vs. Brazil
3.59% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
3.2% - France vs. Netherlands
3.02% - Brazil vs. USA
2.85% - Brazil vs. Costa Rica
See the simulations from one week ago.
Top 10 most likely finals:
11.46% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
8.55% - Argentina vs. Brazil
7.45% - Germany vs. Netherlands
5.68% - Argentina vs. Germany
3.85% - Brazil vs. Mexico
3.75% - Belgium vs. Brazil
3.59% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
3.2% - France vs. Netherlands
3.02% - Brazil vs. USA
2.85% - Brazil vs. Costa Rica
Friday, June 20, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (20 June 2014)
10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
See the simulations from 3 weeks ago (here and here).
Top 10 most likely finals:
13.95% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
12.47% - Argentina vs. Brazil
8.23% - Argentina vs. Germany
8.04% - Germany vs. Netherlands
4.93% - Brazil vs. Chile
4.90% - Chile vs. Netherlands
4.89% - Brazil vs. Italy
4.41% - Brazil vs. Germany
4.14% - Argentina vs. Colombia
4.10% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
See the simulations from 3 weeks ago (here and here).
Top 10 most likely finals:
13.95% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
12.47% - Argentina vs. Brazil
8.23% - Argentina vs. Germany
8.04% - Germany vs. Netherlands
4.93% - Brazil vs. Chile
4.90% - Chile vs. Netherlands
4.89% - Brazil vs. Italy
4.41% - Brazil vs. Germany
4.14% - Argentina vs. Colombia
4.10% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
Friday, June 6, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup: Quick look at the coaches
18 teams will be led by a local coach. There will be coaches from 19 nations.
3 of them are from Colombia, but Colombia are coached by an Argentinian.
3 of them are from Colombia, but Colombia are coached by an Argentinian.
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (chances of reaching certain stage)
By request.
I didn't run the sims again - it's based on those from last week.
Reaching the round of 16:
I didn't run the sims again - it's based on those from last week.
Reaching the round of 16:
2014 World Cup final squads statistics
Notice: this is based on FIFA data. And this data has plenty of errors. For instance, looking at the height/weight of players. Ghana's John Boye is listed at 160 cm and 89 kg, although other sites have him at 185 cm and 72 kg. Boye's body mass index according to FIFA data is 34.76, very close to severely obese.
That's why I haven't included in this post any info regarding height/weight.
Also check the provisional squad statistics to see the changes.
297 clubs will send players to the final tournament.
England is the best represented league - 119 players, with Italy (81), Germany (78), Spain (64) and France (46) completing the top 5.
Russia, Italy, Switzerland and Costa Rica are the only teams with no English-based players.
That's why I haven't included in this post any info regarding height/weight.
Also check the provisional squad statistics to see the changes.
297 clubs will send players to the final tournament.
England is the best represented league - 119 players, with Italy (81), Germany (78), Spain (64) and France (46) completing the top 5.
Russia, Italy, Switzerland and Costa Rica are the only teams with no English-based players.
Friday, May 30, 2014
2014 FIFA World Cup simulations
10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).
Top 10 most likely finals:
6.69% - Brazil vs. Spain
5.17% - Argentina vs. Brazil
2.69% - Brazil vs. Germany
2.57% - Germany vs. Spain
2.14% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
2.14% - Brazil vs. Portugal
2.04% - Brazil vs. Uruguay
2.01% - Argentina vs. Germany
1.99% - Brazil vs. England
1.62% - Brazil vs. Italy
Top 10 most likely finals:
6.69% - Brazil vs. Spain
5.17% - Argentina vs. Brazil
2.69% - Brazil vs. Germany
2.57% - Germany vs. Spain
2.14% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
2.14% - Brazil vs. Portugal
2.04% - Brazil vs. Uruguay
2.01% - Argentina vs. Germany
1.99% - Brazil vs. England
1.62% - Brazil vs. Italy
Friday, May 23, 2014
2014 World Cup provisional squads statistics
You might remember the 2010 edition. This year I wasn't so sure about doing this, but I've been asked by a secondary school math teacher to provide a helping hand for the statistics module about to start. How could I refuse? :)
Caps, goals, ages are as of 16 May 2014. Same goes for players' clubs - based on FIFA's official list.
346 clubs have in the provisional list ( thank you PDFSplit! and Online OCR).
England are again the most represented league base, with 130 players plying their trade in one of the English leagues. Next are Germany and Italy (both 102), Spain (80) and France (63).
Caps, goals, ages are as of 16 May 2014. Same goes for players' clubs - based on FIFA's official list.
346 clubs have in the provisional list ( thank you PDFSplit! and Online OCR).
England are again the most represented league base, with 130 players plying their trade in one of the English leagues. Next are Germany and Italy (both 102), Spain (80) and France (63).
Friday, December 13, 2013
World Cup draw: Seeding all the teams
Possible? Yes.
Complicated? Yes.
Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland
Pot 2: Netherlands, Italy, England, Chile, USA, Portugal, Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Russia, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Costa Rica
Pot 4: Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras, Japan, Iran, Korea Republic, Australia, Cameroon
Pot 1: draw all the seeds and assign them to groups
Complicated? Yes.
Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland
Pot 2: Netherlands, Italy, England, Chile, USA, Portugal, Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Russia, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Costa Rica
Pot 4: Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras, Japan, Iran, Korea Republic, Australia, Cameroon
Pot 1: draw all the seeds and assign them to groups
FIFA Ranking: Tweaking handling of wins
Should FIFA look into changing the handling of wins (friendly or competitive)?
As you might know, the Netherlands and Italy lost out on seeded status because they played (and won) against low ranked team. What will happen now? Will the fees required to play against top team rise because it could affect their ranking? Here's a possible solution: include result of wins in the calculation of the ranking only if it improves the average of the time frame that match belongs to.
As you might know, the Netherlands and Italy lost out on seeded status because they played (and won) against low ranked team. What will happen now? Will the fees required to play against top team rise because it could affect their ranking? Here's a possible solution: include result of wins in the calculation of the ranking only if it improves the average of the time frame that match belongs to.
Friday, November 29, 2013
2014 FIFA World Cup draw generator
Here's an e-mail I've got from Daniel Nordquist:
I love the expectation that always comes when the draws for the World Cup or UEFA Championship are closing up. I have made a simple page on my domain that randomizes the draw and I am willing to share this opportunity to more people to try it out.
You can test it at: nurp.se
Enjoy!
I love the expectation that always comes when the draws for the World Cup or UEFA Championship are closing up. I have made a simple page on my domain that randomizes the draw and I am willing to share this opportunity to more people to try it out.
You can test it at: nurp.se
Enjoy!
Friday, October 25, 2013
October 2013 FIFA ranking used for World Cup final draw
Yes, a bit of old news, but I have been really busy both at home and at the office, then had a short vacation.
Hats off to FIFA about announcing this before the last match day. Maybe next time it will be known before the preliminary draw.
Here's the official media release from FIFA.
Regarding the procedure for the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™, the seeded teams (Pot 1) will include Brazil and the seven top-ranked teams. The remaining pots will be based on geographic and sports criteria. The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking of October 2013 (to be released on 17 Oct. 2013) will be used as opposed to the November ranking as the latter would give the teams involved in the upcoming play-off games an unfair advantage.
Hats off to FIFA about announcing this before the last match day. Maybe next time it will be known before the preliminary draw.
Here's the official media release from FIFA.
Regarding the procedure for the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil™, the seeded teams (Pot 1) will include Brazil and the seven top-ranked teams. The remaining pots will be based on geographic and sports criteria. The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking of October 2013 (to be released on 17 Oct. 2013) will be used as opposed to the November ranking as the latter would give the teams involved in the upcoming play-off games an unfair advantage.
Friday, September 13, 2013
10000 sims on the road to Brazil (13 September 2013)
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
46.67% - Uruguay
18.93% - Belgium
17.09% - Italy
7.23% - Switzerland
2.14% - Argentina
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
46.67% - Uruguay
18.93% - Belgium
17.09% - Italy
7.23% - Switzerland
2.14% - Argentina
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
49.55% - Uruguay
44.79% - Honduras
22.72% - Sweden
22.05% - Burkina Faso
14.22% - Senegal
10.27% - Cameroon
9.66% - Ethiopia
9.27% - Greece
8.33% - Belgium
7.94% - Jordan
Most improved since the 6 September simulations:
49.55% - Uruguay
44.79% - Honduras
22.72% - Sweden
22.05% - Burkina Faso
14.22% - Senegal
10.27% - Cameroon
9.66% - Ethiopia
9.27% - Greece
8.33% - Belgium
7.94% - Jordan
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (13 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
50.33% - Group B
33.69% - Group E
11.94% - Group D
2.65% - Group A
0.99% - Group H
0.4% - Group C
0% - Group F
0% - Group G
0% - Group I
The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).
Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.
50.33% - Group B
33.69% - Group E
11.94% - Group D
2.65% - Group A
0.99% - Group H
0.4% - Group C
0% - Group F
0% - Group G
0% - Group I
Friday, September 6, 2013
2014 FIFA World Cup: A look at the CAF play-off pots scenarios
Standings can be found on FIFA.com.
Group A
Ethiopia - Won't be seeded.
Botswana - Won't be seeded.
South Africa - need to win against Botswana and hope Ethiopia don't defeat Central African Republic at a neutral venue.
They will be in the second pot with a total between 528 and 539 (depending on the outcome of their friendly against Zimbabwe).
10000 sims on the road to Brazil (6 September 2013)
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (6 September 2013)
More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
11.96% - Switzerland
10.55% - Argentina
6.47% - England
3.32% - Italy
2.34% - USA
Most improved since the 21 June simulations:
11.96% - Switzerland
10.55% - Argentina
6.47% - England
3.32% - Italy
2.34% - USA
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