2013 FIFA Confederations Cup simulations (14 June 2013)

The simulation algorithm is explained in the first Road to Brazil post.

Fourth in group:

Tahiti - 88.46%
Japan - 44.86%
Mexico - 29.32%
Italy - 22.11%
Nigeria - 8.3%
Brazil - 3.71%
Uruguay - 3.12%
Spain - 0.12%

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup simulations (12 April 2013)

Fourth in group:

Tahiti - 87.71%
Japan - 43.49%
Mexico - 30.11%
Italy - 22.57%
Nigeria - 8.02%
Uruguay - 4.08%
Brazil - 3.83%
Spain - 0.19%