Australia and 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding

Fans of AFC teams seem to think it's impossible for their teams to be seeded for the final World Cup draw using the FIFA ranking. I'll take Australia as an example since there was recently an article on The Roar (Thanks George Mladenov!) discussing the ranking.

As you may remember, FIFA used the October 2009 ranking to determine the seeds for the final draw (based on feeling, wouldn't you know it...)

Australia were way down in 24th place, 253 points behind the last seed - England. And yet, it would have been possible for them to be seeded.

Let's focus first on competitive matches that Australia didn't win (after the 2007 Asian Cup)

26 Mar 2008 China PR - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)
07 Jun 2008 Iraq - Australia 1 - 0 (WCQ)
22 Jun 2008 Australia - China PR 0 - 1 (WCQ)
28 Jan 2009 Indonesia - Australia 0 - 0 (ACQ)
11 Feb 2009 Japan - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)
05 Mar 2009 Australia - Kuwait 0 - 1 (WCQ)
06 Jun 2009 Qatar - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)

Changing all these matches (with the exception of the one against Japan) to wins, would have taken Australia to 1026 points. Let's look a bit at the friendlies.

Canceling the friendlies against Singapore (0 - 0 on 22 Mar 2008), South Africa (2 - 2 on 19 Aug 2008) and Korea Republic (1 - 3 on 5 Sep 2009) would have taken Australia to 1109 points - 8 more than England.

Possible? Yes. Extremely difficult? Of course. However, FIFA might have kept the performance-ranking combo to determine the seeds, had Australia managed to be in the top 7 in October 2009.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

World Cup qualification: Worst runner-up problem (UEFA)

In the 2010 UEFA FWCQ, Norway were the worst runner-up. I was looking at the groups and I thought at a different approach:

• rank the group winners using only games against the teams ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
• the worst group winner will play-off against the runner-up from its group
• the other runner-ups play against each other

In the 2010 FWCQ, Denmark were the worst group winners. Using the same pairings, this is how the play-offs would have looked like:

Portugal vs Denmark
Norway vs France
Russia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ukraine vs Republic of Ireland
Greece vs Slovenia

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

Number of interconfederational matches and wins for each confederation.

Source: FIFA.com

AFC

Games/Wins - 14/4

Wins:

Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
Australia - Serbia 2 - 1
Japan - Cameroon 1 - 0
Denmark - Japan 1 - 3

Other games:

Argentina - Korea Republic 4 - 1
Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
Germany - Australia 4 - 0
Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
Netherlands - Japan 1 - 0
Brazil - Korea DPR 2 - 1
Portugal - Korea DPR 7 - 0
Korea DPR - Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3
Uruguay - Korea Republic 2 - 1
Paraguay - Japan 0 - 0 (5 - 3 PSO)

CAF

Games/Wins - 20/4

Wins:

France - South Africa 1 - 2
Serbia - Ghana 0 - 1
Korea DPR - Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3
USA - Ghana 1 - 2 aet

Other games:

South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
South Africa - Uruguay 0 - 3
Argentina - Nigeria 1 - 0
Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
Algeria - Slovenia 0 - 1
England - Algeria 0 - 0
USA - Algeria 1 - 0
Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
Ghana - Germany 0 - 1
Japan - Cameroon 1 - 0
Cameroon - Denmark 1 - 2
Cameroon - Netherlands 1 - 2
Côte d'Ivoire - Portugal 0 - 0
Brazil - Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1
Uruguay - Ghana 1 - 1 (4 - 2 PSO)

CONCACAF

Games/Wins - 11/2

Wins:

France - Mexico 0 - 2
USA - Algeria 1 - 0

Other games:

South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
Mexico - Uruguay 0 - 1
England - USA 1 - 1
Slovenia - USA 2 - 2
Honduras - Chile 0 - 1
Spain - Honduras 2 - 0
Switzerland - Honduras 0 - 0
USA - Ghana 1 - 2 aet
Argentina - Mexico 3 - 1

CONMEBOL

Games/Wins - 24/12

Wins:

South Africa - Uruguay 0 - 3
Mexico - Uruguay 0 - 1
Argentina - Nigeria 1 - 0
Argentina - Korea Republic 4 - 1
Greece - Argentina 0 - 2
Slovakia - Paraguay 0 - 2
Brazil - Korea DPR 2 - 1
Brazil - Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1
Honduras - Chile 0 - 1
Chile - Switzerland 1 - 0
Uruguay - Korea Republic 2 - 1
Argentina - Mexico 3 - 1

Other games:

Uruguay - France 0 - 0
Italy - Paraguay 1 - 1
Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
Portugal - Brazil 0 - 0
Chile - Spain 1 - 2
Paraguay - Japan 0 - 0 (5 - 3 PSO)
Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 1
Uruguay - Ghana 1 - 1 (4 - 2 PSO)
Argentina - Germany 0 - 4
Paraguay - Spain 0 - 1
Uruguay - Netherlands 2 - 3
Uruguay - Germany 2 - 3

OFC

Games/Wins - 3/0

Wins:

Other games:

New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1
Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0

UEFA

Games/Wins - 34/15

Wins:

Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
Algeria - Slovenia 0 - 1
Germany - Australia 4 - 0
Ghana - Germany 0 - 1
Netherlands - Japan 1 - 0
Cameroon - Denmark 1 - 2
Cameroon - Netherlands 1 - 2
Portugal - Korea DPR 7 - 0
Spain - Honduras 2 - 0
Chile - Spain 1 - 2
Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 1
Argentina - Germany 0 - 4
Paraguay - Spain 0 - 1
Uruguay - Netherlands 2 - 3
Uruguay - Germany 2 - 3

Other games:

Uruguay - France 0 - 0
France - Mexico 0 - 2
France - South Africa 1 - 2
Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
Greece - Argentina 0 - 2
England - USA 1 - 1
Slovenia - USA 2 - 2
England - Algeria 0 - 0
Serbia - Ghana 0 - 1
Australia - Serbia 2 - 1
Denmark - Japan 1 - 3
Italy - Paraguay 1 - 1
New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1
Slovakia - Paraguay 0 - 2
Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
Côte d'Ivoire - Portugal 0 - 0
Portugal - Brazil 0 - 0
Chile - Switzerland 1 - 0
Switzerland - Honduras 0 - 0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Confederation weighting: New values for the next 4 years

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

Confederation - Wins - Games - Average - Value - Adjusted value

CONMEBOL	32	61	0.52459	1.00000	1
UEFA	55	112	0.49107	0.98363	0.98
AFC	10	43	0.23256	0.81598	0.85
CAF	11	53	0.20755	0.79309	0.85
CONCACAF	7	34	0.20588	0.79150	0.85
OFC	1	7	0.09524	0.65275	0.85

Corrected to used two digit rounding and average of the three World Cups. See comments. The only change - UEFA now at 0.99 instead of 0.98.

Confed	W02	T02	WPG02	W06	T06	WPG06	W10	T10	WPG10	Av02-10	FVal
CONMEBOL	10	20	0.5	10	17	0.59	12	24	0.5	0.53	1
UEFA	18	44	0.41	22	34	0.65	15	34	0.44	0.5	0.99
CONCACAF	4	10	0.4	1	13	0.08	2	11	0.18	0.22	0.8
AFC	5	17	0.29	1	12	0.08	4	14	0.29	0.22	0.8
CAF	4	17	0.24	3	16	0.19	4	20	0.2	0.21	0.79
OFC	0	0	0	1	4	0.25	0	3	0	0.08	0.62

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup: Various stats and info (V)

A look at the FIFA match points.

Top 10 results

2376 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
2376 - Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 1
2364 - Spain - Portugal 1 - 0
2352 - Spain - Netherlands 1 - 0
2340 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
2328 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
2328 - Spain - Germany 1 - 0
2304 - Germany - England 4 - 1
2292.84 - Germany - Argentina 4 - 0
2221.56 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0

Bottom 10 results

(losses not included)

397.8 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
446.52 - Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
451.4 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
451.4 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
520.2 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
571.2 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1
599.4 - Switzerland - Honduras 0 - 0
608.6 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
612 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
614.2 - New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1

Averaged results - how many points a team actually received.

Top 10 averaged results

198 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
179.077 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
167.143 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
161.538 - England - Slovenia 1 - 0
157.962 - Australia - Serbia 2 - 1
157.25 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0
152.838 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
142.688 - Brazil - Chile 3 - 0
139.765 - Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 1
135.529 - Germany - England 4 - 1

Bottom 10 averaged results

15.912 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
26.266 - Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
29.143 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
29.454 - Japan - Paraguay 0 - 0 3 - 5 PSO
29.629 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
30.43 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
32.069 - Ghana - Uruguay 1 - 1 2 - 4 PSO
32.243 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
32.375 - USA - Slovenia 2 - 2
32.513 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2

Top 10 Elo points exchanged

59 - Germany - Argentina 4 - 0
55 - Germany - England 4 - 1
53 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
53 - Japan - Denmark 3 - 1
49 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
45 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
41 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
41 - Mexico - France 2 - 0
41 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
40 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: July 2010 quick update

Netherlands could climb to the top spot if they defeat Spain avoiding PSO. Any other result will see Spain returning to the number one position.

Brazil and Germany will be 3rd and 4th respectively.

Uruguay can overtake Argentina for 5th place only if they defeat Germany in the third place match avoiding PSO. Speaking of the third place match and ranking points, FIFA said Uruguay could move closer to a top 10 place with a win in this match (more in this Sky Sports article). They probably didn't compute the points before saying that as Uruguay are sure to be at least 6th even if they lose to Germany.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Allocating World Cup slots: Is there a better way?

This is the title of a Planet World Cup article written by Paul Marcuccitti (he's Australian by the way) in 2007.

Paul also suggested in 2004 to include the OFC winner(s) in AFC's final qualifying round. It sort of happened in 2006 (more about it in this post).

Now, let's see what Paul's system is about:

Use a points system to determine each confederation’s allocation. Then confederations can gain or lose points through both intercontinental playoffs and the World Cup finals. It doesn’t need to be a complicated formula.

Each confederation’s starting points should be based on the current allocation of places (not including the host nation). So UEFA starts with 13 points, CONCACAF starts with 3.5, etc.

When a confederation loses an intercontinental playoff, it should lose 0.2 points for the next World Cup cycle while the winning confederation gains 0.2. Then the World Cup finals should also rank confederations against each other and the two best confederations would gain points (0.4 for best and 0.3 for next best) while the two worst would lose (0.4 for worst and 0.3 for next worst). The confederations’ new totals would then determine the allocation of slots for the next World Cup.

So how do we rank confederations’ World Cup finals performances against each other?

There needs to be only one criterion for determining this ranking: what percentage of a confederation’s teams finished bottom of their groups.

Whenever the debate over allocation of slots rears its head, media tend to focus on how many teams (from each confederation) reach the Second Round. But this is the wrong way to go about it. Only the weakest links count because this is effectively an exercise in promotion and relegation.

Let's apply the Marcuccitti system to the 2010 FIFA World Cup.

Bottom teams:

UEFA: France, Serbia, Italy
CAF: Nigeria, Algeria, Cameroon
AFC+OFC: Korea DPR
CONCACAF: Honduras

Column order:

• Confederation
• 2010 allocation
• 2010 number of teams
• 2010 number of bottom teams
• Performance correction
• Intercontinental playoffs correction
• Adjusted values
• Rounded values (with host moved to CONMEBOL)
  

UEFA	13	13	3	23.08	0	0	13	13
CONMEBOL	4.5	5	0	0	0.4	0.2	5.1	6
CAF	6	6	3	50	-0.4	0	5.6	4.5
CONCACAF	3.5	3	1	33.33	-0.3	-0.2	3	3
AFC+OFC	5	5	1	20	0.3	0	5.3	5.5

Thus, the allocation for 2014 would be:

UEFA: 13
CONMEBOL: 6 (including hosts Brazil)
CAF: 4.5
CONCACAF: 3
AFC+OFC: 5.5

I applied the Marcuccitti system to the the 1998, 2002 and 2006 World Cups. Here are the results:

1998 World Cup

Bottom teams

UEFA: Scotland, Bulgaria
CAF: Cameroon, Tunisia
AFC: Saudi Arabia, Korea Republic, Japan
CONCACAF: USA

UEFA	15	15	2	13.33	0.3	0	15.3	14.5
CONMEBOL	5	5		0	0.4	0	5.4	5.5
CAF	5	5	2	40	-0.3	0	4.7	4.5
CONCACAF	3	3	1	33.33	0	0	3	3
AFC+OFC	4	4	3	75	-0.4	0	3.6	4.5

Actually, CONMEBOL got 1 places less (4.5), with AFC(+OFC) and CAF getting 0.5 more.

2002 World Cup

Bottom teams

UEFA: France, Slovenia, Poland
AFC: China PR, Saudi Arabia
CAF: Nigeria, Tunisia
CONMEBOL: Ecuador

UEFA	14.5	15	3	20	0.2	0.15	14.85	16
CONMEBOL	4.5	5	1	20	0.2	0.15	4.85	5
CAF	5	5	2	40	0	-0.3	4.7	4.5
CONCACAF	3	3	0	0	0	0.4	3.4	3.5
AFC+OFC	5	4	2	50	-0.4	-0.4	4.2	3

Actually, UEFA got 2 places less (14), CONMEBOL 0.5 less (5), CAF 0.5 more (5) and AFC(+OFC) 2 more.

2006 World Cup

Bottom teams

CONCACAF: Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, USA
UEFA: Serbia and Montenegro
AFC: Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia
CAF: Togo

UEFA	14	15	1	6.67	0.3	0	14.3	13.5
CONMEBOL	4.5	4	0	0	0.4	-0.2	4.7	4.5
CAF	5	5	1	20	0	0	5	6
CONCACAF	3.5	4	3	75	-0.35	0.2	3.35	3.5
AFC+OFC	5	4	3	75	-0.35	0	4.65	4.5

UEFA got 0.5 less (13) with AFC(+OFC) getting 0.5 more.

Adding the differences between the actual allocations and those the Marcuccitti system came up with, UEFA had the most to lose over the last three World Cups:

UEFA: -2.5
CONMEBOL: -1.5
CAF: +1
AFC+OFC: 3
CONCACAF: 0

CONCACAF always received from FIFA the exact number of slots computed by the Marcuccitti system.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Confederation weighting: CONMEBOL sure to finish top

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

The current values (with remaining matches included: semifinals, 3rd place match and final) are:

CONMEBOL (61 games, 32 wins): 1
UEFA (112 games, 53 wins): 0.97
The rest: 0.85

If Uruguay win both their matches avoiding PSO, UEFA will drop to 0.95.
If Uruguay lose both their matches avoiding PSO, UEFA will climb to 0.98.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup: Various stats and info (IV)

A look at the FIFA match points.

Top 10 results

2376 - Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 1
2376 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
2364 - Spain - Portugal 1 - 0
2340 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
2328 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
2304 - Germany - England 4 - 1
2292.84 - Germany - Argentina 4 - 0
2221.56 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0
2162.16 - Spain - Chile 2 - 1
2140.32 - Brazil - Chile 3 - 0

Bottom 10 results

(losses not included)

397.8 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
446.52 - Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
451.4 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
451.4 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
520.2 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
571.2 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1
599.4 - Switzerland - Honduras 0 - 0
608.6 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
612 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
614.2 - New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1

Averaged results - how many points a team actually received.

Top 10 averaged results

198 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
179.077 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
167.143 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
161.538 - England - Slovenia 1 - 0
157.962 - Australia - Serbia 2 - 1
157.25 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0
152.838 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
142.688 - Brazil - Chile 3 - 0
139.765 - Netherlands - Brazil 2 - 1
135.529 - Germany - England 4 - 1

Bottom 10 averaged results

15.912 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
26.266 - Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
29.143 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
29.454 - Japan - Paraguay 0 - 0 3 - 5 PSO
29.629 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
30.43 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
32.069 - Ghana - Uruguay 1 - 1 2 - 4 PSO
32.243 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
32.375 - USA - Slovenia 2 - 2
32.513 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2

Top 10 Elo points exchanged

59 - Germany - Argentina 4 - 0
55 - Germany - England 4 - 1
53 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
53 - Japan - Denmark 3 - 1
49 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
45 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
41 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
41 - Mexico - France 2 - 0
41 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
40 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Castrol Index Bottom 11

You might have seen the Castrol Index Top 11. At the moment it looks like this (4-4-2):

GK - EDUARDO (Portugal) 9.38

DL - Philipp LAHM (Germany) 9.66
DC - Antolin ALCARAZ (Paraguay) 9.70
DC - SERGIO RAMOS (Spain) 9.74
DR - Joan CAPDEVILA (Spain) 9.79

ML - Frank LAMPARD (England) 9.16
MC - GILBERTO SILVA (Brazil) 9.28
MC - Cristian RIVEROS (Paraguay) 9.32
MR - Steven GERRARD (England) 9.59

FW - David VILLA (Spain) 9.22
FW - Gonzalo HIGUAIN (Argentina) 9.36

Who's in the Bottom 11?

Restricting the field to players that have played in at least 50% of the team playing time (i.e. 135 minutes for a team knocked out in the group stage), this is what I got:

GK - Federico MARCHETTI (Italy) 4.51

DL - Emilio IZAGUIRRE (Honduras) 4.94
DC - Scott CHIPPERFIELD (Australia) 4.79
DC - Joseph YOBO (Nigeria) 4.61
DR - Sergio MENDOZA (Honduras) 4.64

ML - Ramon NUNEZ (Honduras) 5.68
MC - Thomas KAHLENBERG (Denmark) 5.45
MC - Martin JORGENSEN (Denmark) 5.75
MR - MUN In Guk (Korea DPR) 5.64

FW - Blaise NKUFO (Switzerland) 5.49
FW - Zlatan LJUBIJANKIC (Slovenia) 5.79

Three from Honduras, two from Denmark, one each from Italy, Australia, Nigeria, Korea DPR, Switzerland and Slovenia. Since all these teams are already eliminated, I'm pretty sure this bottom 11 won't change from now on.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup: Various stats and info (III)

Confederation weighting - CONMEBOL still in front, UEFA with 0.95, the rest at 0.85.

Voros has the numbers for the knockout stages and the new rankings (before Uruguay - Korea Republic).

A look at the FIFA match points.

Top 10 results

2376 - Switzerland - Spain
2340 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
2328 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
2304 - Germany - England 4 - 1
2221.56 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0
2162.16 - Spain - Chile 2 - 1
2120.1 - Mexico - France 2 - 0
2120.1 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
2100 - England - Slovenia 1 - 0
2090.88 - Chile - Switzerland 1 - 0

Bottom 10 results

(losses not included)

397.8 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
446.52 - Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
451.4 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
451.4 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
520.2 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
571.2 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1
599.4 - Switzerland - Honduras 0 - 0
608.6 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
612 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
614.2 - New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1

Averaged results - how many points a team actually received.

Top 10 averaged results

198 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
179.077 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
167.143 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
161.538 - England - Slovenia 1 - 0
157.962 - Australia - Serbia 2 - 1
157.25 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0
153.6 - Germany - England 4 - 1
152.838 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
144.144 - Spain - Chile 2 - 1
143.524 - Uruguay - Mexico 1 - 0

Bottom 10 averaged results

15.912 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
29.629 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
27.908 - Paraguay - New Zealand 0 - 0
30.43 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
29.143 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
32.375 - USA - Slovenia 2 - 2
32.513 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
34.723 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
32.243 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
35.52 - USA - England 1 - 1

Top 10 Elo points exchanged

55 - Germany - England 4 - 1
53 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
53 - Japan - Denmark 3 - 1
49 - Slovakia - Italy 3 - 2
45 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
41 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
41 - Mexico - France 2 - 0
41 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
40 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
38 - Australia - Serbia 2 - 1

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup: Various stats and info (II)

Confederation weighting - CONMEBOL still in front, UEFA with 0.94, the rest at 0.85.

Interesting analysis (with all kind of probabilities) from Voros. He has also updated the team rankings.

A look at the FIFA match points.

Top 10 results

2376 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
2328 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
2221.56 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0
2120.1 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
2120.1 - Mexico - France - 2 - 1
2090.88 - Chile - Switzerland 1 - 0
2075.7 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
2053.5 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
2009.34 - Uruguay - Mexic 1 - 0
2009.1 - Denmark - Cameroon 2 - 1

Bottom 10 results

(losses not included)

397.8 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
451.4 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
451.4 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
520.2 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
571.2 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1
608.6 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
612 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
614.2 - New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1
622.2 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
629 - England - Algeria 0 - 0

Average results - how many points a team actually received.

Top 10 averaged results

198 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
179.077 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
157.25 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0
154.565 - Uruguay - Mexic 1 - 0
153.692 - Germany - Australia 4 - 0
152.838 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1
140.571 - Netherlands - Denmark 2 - 0
138.848 - Argentina - Greece 2 - 0
135.681 - Brazil - Cote d'Ivoire 3 - 1
131.472 - Paraguay - Slovakia 2 - 0

Bottom 10 averaged results

15.912 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
29.629 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
30.43 - Korea Republic - Nigeria 2 - 2
32.211 - Ghana - Australia 1 - 1
32.513 - Nigeria - Korea Republic 2 - 2
34.079 - USA - Slovenia 2 - 2
34.723 - Italy - New Zealand 1 - 1
34.723 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
37.389 - USA - England 1 - 1
43.938 - Australia - Ghana 1 - 1

Top 10 Elo points exchanged

53 - Switzerland - Spain 1 - 0
45 - Serbia - Germany 1 - 0
41 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
41 - Mexico - France 2 - 0
41 - South Africa - France 2 - 1
40 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
35 - Uruguay - South Africa 3 - 0
35 - Uruguay - Mexico 1 - 0
34 - Argentina - Korea Republic 4 - 1
32 - Japan - Cameroon 1 - 0
32 - Greece - Nigeria 2 - 1

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Confederation weighting: CONMEBOL in front

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

Before the World Cup, these were the values:

UEFA - 1
CONMEBOL - 0.98
Every other confederation - 0.85

Intermediate 2010 values without the 2010 WC results:

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF 0.85 (0.79)
CAF 0.85 (0.79)
AFC 0.85 (0.78)
OFC 0.85 (0.74)

After the first round of matches (Spain - Switzerland won't count):

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.97
AFC 0.85 (0.81)
CAF 0.85 (0.7717)
CONCACAF 0.85 (0.7709)
OFC 0.85 (0.68)

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup: Various stats and info

A look at the FIFA match points.

Top 5 results

2075.7 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
2053.5 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
1998 - Germany - Serbia 4 - 0
1968 - Netherlands - Denmark 2 - 0
1965.42 - Argentina - Nigeria 1 - 0

Bottom 5 results

(losses were not considered)

397.8 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
451.4 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
614.2 - New Zealand - Slovakia 1 - 1
622.2 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
640.1 - Portugal - Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0



Average results - how many points a team actually received.

Top 5 averaged results

157.25 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0
153.692 - Germany - Australia 4 - 0
151.385 - Netherlands - Denmark 2 - 0
131.028 - Argentina - Nigeria 1 - 0
109.247 - Korea Republic - Greece

Bottom 5 averaged results

16.575 - Mexico - South Africa 1 - 1
29.629 - South Africa - Mexico 1 - 1
34.723 - Slovakia - New Zealand 1 - 1
37.389 - USA - England 1 - 1
45.556 - Côte d'Ivoire - Portugal 0 - 0

Top 5 Elo points exchanged

41 - Ghana - Serbia 1 - 0
40 - Korea Republic - Greece 2 - 0
32 - Japan - Cameroon 1 - 0
31 - Germany - Australia 4 - 0
20 - Slovenia - Algeria 1 - 0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

World Cup final squads statistics

Updated to fix league standings as Wellington Phoenix play in the A-League. Thanks Jarryd!
_______________
As promised...

Also check the provisional squad statistics to see the changes.

298 clubs from 52 leagues have players in the final squad lists, with three players currently unattached: Craig Moore (Australia), Simon Elliott and Dave Mulligan (both New Zealand).

England is the best represented league - 118 players, with Germany (84), Italy (80), Spain (59) and France (45) completing the top 5.

Top 5 leagues of countries not qualified to the World Cup:

1. Russia (14)
2. Turkey (13)
3. Scotland (10)
4. Belgium (7)
5. Israel (6)

Here's the top 25 for all leagues:

1	England	118
2	Germany	84
3	Italy	80
4	Spain	59
5	France	45
6	Netherlands	34
7	Japan	25
8	Greece	21
8	Mexico	21
10	Korea DPR	20
10	Portugal	20
12	South Africa	17
13	Honduras	14
13	Russia	14
15	Korea Republic	13
15	Turkey	13
17	Argentina	11
18	Chile	10
18	Scotland	10
18	Switzerland	10
21	Australia	9
21	Denmark	9
23	Belgium	7
23	USA	7
25	Brazil	6
25	Israel	6

By club

13 - Barcelona, Chelsea
12 - Liverpool
11 - Bayern Munich
10 - Arsenal, Inter, Panathinaikos, Real Madrid
9 - Ajax, Juventus, Wolfsburg
8 - Portsmouth, Tottenham Hotspur, Udinese
7 - AC Milan, April 25, Everton, Hamburger SV, Lyon, Manchester City, Manchester Utd., Twente Enschede, Valencia, VfB Stuttgart

Top 10 oldest players

David JAMES	Portsmouth	England	39.868
Sander BOSCHKER	Twente Enschede	Netherlands	39.649
Marcus HAHNEMANN	Wolverhampton	USA	37.995
Mark SCHWARZER	Fulham	Australia	37.685
Cuauhtemoc BLANCO	Veracruz	Mexico	37.403
Oscar PEREZ	Jaguares	Mexico	37.362
LEE Woon Jae	Suwon Bluewings	Korea Republic	37.132
Fabio CANNAVARO	Juventus	Italy	36.748
Carlos PAVON	Real Espana	Honduras	36.677
Martin PALERMO	Boca Juniors	Argentina	36.597

Blanco is the oldest outfield player in this list, followed by Cannavaro and Pavon. No change from the provisional list.

Top 10 youngest players

Christian ERIKSEN	Ajax	Denmark	18.315
Vincent ABOUBAKAR	Coton Sport	Cameroon	18.378
Chris WOOD	West Bromwich Albion	New Zealand	18.504
Xherdan SHAQIRI	Basel	Switzerland	18.663
Joel MATIP	Schalke 04	Cameroon	18.836
Lukman HARUNA	Monaco	Nigeria	19.512
Jonathan MENSAH	Free State Stars	Ghana	19.907
PAK Sung Hyok	Sobaeksu	Korea DPR	20.027
Rene KRHIN	Inter	Slovenia	20.052
Sotiris NINIS	Panathinaikos	Greece	20.184

Plenty of changes here.

Ghanian Daniel Agyei (20.578) is the youngest keeper (18th overall). In fact, in Agyei and Stephen Ahorlu (21.759), Ghana have the two youngest keepers in the tournament.

Average squad age

Italy are no longer the oldest team in the tournament, being replaced by Brazil. Ghana remain the youngest team.

1	Brazil	29.165
2	England	29.153
3	Australia	28.992
4	Paraguay	28.740
5	Italy	28.735
6	Honduras	28.388
7	Denmark	28.277
8	Japan	28.248
9	Portugal	28.162
10	Netherlands	28.104
11	Greece	28.087
12	France	28.062
13	New Zealand	27.868
14	Argentina	27.619
15	Korea Republic	27.583
16	Mexico	27.573
17	South Africa	27.313
18	USA	27.276
19	Slovenia	27.175
20	Switzerland	27.148
21	Uruguay	27.084
22	Côte d'Ivoire	27.073
23	Algeria	26.696
24	Slovakia	26.529
25	Serbia	26.433
26	Chile	26.358
27	Spain	26.352
28	Nigeria	26.313
29	Cameroon	25.584
30	Germany	25.349
31	Korea DPR	25.294
32	Ghana	24.717

Looking at the first 11 (going by shirt numbers):

1	Australia	31.640
2	Mexico	30.324
3	New Zealand	30.067
4	Paraguay	29.852
5	England	29.453
6	Italy	29.450
7	Brazil	29.427
8	Portugal	29.185
9	Greece	29.167
10	Denmark	29.151
11	Japan	28.420
12	Switzerland	28.333
13	Nigeria	28.192
14	Netherlands	28.178
15	France	28.046
16	Korea Republic	27.961
17	Spain	27.897
18	Argentina	27.878
19	Algeria	27.846
20	Honduras	27.844
21	USA	27.769
22	Slovakia	27.448
23	South Africa	27.106
24	Serbia	26.993
25	Côte d'Ivoire	26.889
26	Slovenia	26.808
27	Cameroon	26.696
28	Uruguay	26.247
29	Chile	26.068
30	Korea DPR	26.015
31	Ghana	25.707
32	Germany	25.497

Highest players

1	Nikola ZIGIC	FW	Serbia	Valencia	202
2	Peter CROUCH	FW	England	Tottenham Hotspur	201
3	Konstantinos CHALKIAS	GK	Greece	PAOK	198
4	Uwa ECHIEJILE	DF	Nigeria	Rennes	198
5	Matthew BOOTH	DF	South Africa	Mamelodi Sundowns	198
6	Jasmin HANDANOVIC	GK	Slovenia	Mantova	197
7	Maarten STEKELENBURG	GK	Netherlands	Ajax	197
8	Nwankwo KANU	MF	Nigeria	Portsmouth	197
9	Per MERTESACKER	DF	Germany	Werder Bremen	196
10	David JAMES	GK	England	Portsmouth	196
11	Mark SCHWARZER	GK	Australia	Fulham	196

Shortest players

1	Aaron LENNON	MF	England	Tottenham Hotspur	165
2	Clemente RODRIGUEZ	DF	Argentina	Estudiantes La Plata	166
3	Arthur BOKA	DF	Cote dIvoire	VfB Stuttgart	166
4	Walter MARTINEZ	FW	Honduras	Marathon	166
5	Danilo TURCIOS	MF	Honduras	Olimpia Tegucigalpa	166
6	MUN In Guk	MF	Korea DPR	April 25	167
7	Mathieu VALBUENA	FW	France	Marseille	167
8	Sebastian FERNANDEZ	FW	Uruguay	Banfield	167

Average height

Serbia are the tallest team, followed by Greece and Denmark. I never knew Greeks are this tall. Chile are the shortest team, with Korea DPR and South Africa the other two teams below 178 cm.

1	Serbia	185.957
2	Greece	185.261
3	Denmark	184.87
4	New Zealand	184.739
5	Germany	184.478
6	Nigeria	184.087
7	Slovakia	184.043
8	Slovenia	183.87
9	Australia	183.783
10	Switzerland	183.261
11	Cameroon	182.652
12	Brazil	182.609
13	Korea Republic	182.478
14	Algeria	182.174
15	France	181.957
16	England	181.739
17	Portugal	181.478
18	Italy	181.261
19	Netherlands	181.087
20	USA	181.087
21	Côte d'Ivoire	180.957
22	Paraguay	180.913
23	Spain	180.913
24	Uruguay	180.522
25	Japan	178.783
26	Ghana	178.435
27	Argentina	178.043
28	Honduras	178
29	Mexico	178
30	South Africa	177.913
31	Korea DPR	177.739
32	Chile	176.478

Looking only at the first 11 (going by shirt numbers):

1	Greece	186.273
2	New Zealand	186.091
3	Germany	185.364
4	Denmark	185.273
5	Nigeria	185.182
6	Slovenia	184.818
7	Switzerland	184.818
8	Australia	184.545
9	Serbia	183.364
10	Slovakia	182.818
11	Algeria	182.727
12	England	182.727
13	Brazil	182.636
14	Uruguay	182.545
15	Netherlands	181.364
16	Italy	181.273
17	Korea Republic	181.273
18	France	181.091
19	Portugal	180.545
20	Paraguay	180.455
21	USA	180.273
22	Cameroon	180
23	Ghana	180
24	Honduras	179.636
25	Spain	179.636
26	Côte d'Ivoire	179
27	Argentina	178.364
28	Mexico	177.727
29	Chile	176.909
30	Japan	176.818
31	Korea DPR	176.364
32	South Africa	176.182

Local players vs. foreign players

England, Germany and Italy are the only teams with 100% local players.

Korea DPR, Japan and Spain are the other 3 teams with more than 80% local players.

Australia, Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire have only one local based player each.

Team - Local players - Percentage

England	23	100
Germany	23	100
Italy	23	100
Korea DPR	20	86.96
Spain	20	86.96
Japan	19	82.61
South Africa	16	69.57
Greece	14	60.87
Honduras	14	60.87
Mexico	14	60.87
Korea Republic	13	56.52
France	11	47.83
Netherlands	9	39.13
New Zealand	9	39.13
Portugal	9	39.13
Chile	7	30.43
Denmark	7	30.43
Switzerland	7	30.43
Argentina	6	26.09
Paraguay	4	17.39
USA	4	17.39
Algeria	3	13.04
Brazil	3	13.04
Ghana	3	13.04
Serbia	2	8.7
Slovakia	2	8.7
Slovenia	2	8.7
Uruguay	2	8.7
Australia	1	4.35
Cameroon	1	4.35
Côte d'Ivoire	1	4.35

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Swiss mathematician using FIFA ranking to predict the World Cup

That seems as an unhappy choice - the FIFA ranking has many flaws... But that's my opinion and I don't have a PhD in mathematics as Mr. Roger Kaufmann has.

More info on his website: RogerKaufmann.ch

He will update the probabilities after each match.

Chances of winning the World Cup (as of May 26):

1	Brazil	15.4
2	Spain	15.2
3	Portugal	6.1
4	Netherlands	5.7
5	Italy	5.2
6	Nigeria	4
7	Cameroon	3.9
8	Germany	3.8
9	Argentina	3.4
10	France	3.3
11	Algeria	3.2
12	England	3.1
13	Cote d'Ivoire	2.7
14	Ghana	2.5
15	Greece	2.2
16	Serbia	2.1
17	USA	2
18	Mexico	1.8
19	Uruguay	1.8
20	Australia	1.6
21	Paraguay	1.5
22	Chile	1.5
23	Slovenia	1.3
24	Slovakia	1.2
25	South Africa	1.1
26	Switzerland	1.1
27	Denmark	1
28	Honduras	0.7
29	Japan	0.7
30	Korea Republic	0.5
31	New Zealand	0.2
32	Korea DPR	0.1

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 FIFA World Cup simulation using Elo Ratings

By request :)

According to the Elo ratings, Spain will win the World Cup, defeating Brazil after PSO. England third, after a PSO win against Germany.

You can check the list of probable results. These are not my probable results, but the most likely results generated using the Elo ratings.

Tie-breakers:

- goal difference - that's actually never used, since the only win by more than a goal is Brazil - Korea DPR 4 - 0
- Elo rating - that's why Mexico tops group A, Korea Republic comes second in group B and so on. Japan and Cameroon are still tied even using the Elo ratings, but it doesn't matter in the end.

In the KO stage, if the most likely result is a draw, the team with the higher Elo rating will win after PSO.

Group A

11/Jun South Africa - Mexico 2
11/Jun Uruguay - France X
16/Jun South Africa - Uruguay 2
17/Jun France - Mexico X
22/Jun France - South Africa 1
22/Jun Mexico - Uruguay X

Mexico 5, France 5, Uruguay 5, South Africa 0

Group B

12/Jun Korea Republic - Greece X
12/Jun Argentina - Nigeria 1
17/Jun Argentina - Korea Republic 1
17/Jun Greece - Nigeria X
22/Jun Greece - Argentina 2
22/Jun Nigeria - Korea Republic X

Argentina 9, Korea Republic 2, Greece 2, Nigeria 2

Group C

12/Jun England - USA 1
13/Jun Algeria - Slovenia 2
18/Jun Slovenia - USA X
18/Jun England - Algeria 1
23/Jun USA - Algeria 1
23/Jun Slovenia - England 2

England 9, USA 4, Slovenia 4, Algeria 0

Group D

13/Jun Serbia - Ghana 1
13/Jun Germany - Australia 1
18/Jun Germany - Serbia X
19/Jun Ghana - Australia X
23/Jun Australia - Serbia 2
23/Jun Ghana - Germany 2

Germany 7, Serbia 7, Australia 1, Ghana 1

Group E

14/Jun Netherlands - Denmark 1
14/Jun Japan - Cameroon X
19/Jun Netherlands - Japan 1
19/Jun Cameroon - Denmark X
24/Jun Cameroon - Netherlands 2
24/Jun Denmark - Japan X

Netherlands 9, Denmark 2, Cameroon 2, Japan 2

Group F

14/Jun Italy - Paraguay 1
15/Jun New Zealand - Slovakia X
20/Jun Slovakia - Paraguay X
20/Jun Italy - New Zealand 1
24/Jun Paraguay - New Zealand 1
24/Jun Slovakia - Italy 2

Italy 9, Paraguay 4, Slovakia 2, New Zealand 1

Group G

15/Jun Côte d'Ivoire - Portugal X
15/Jun Brazil - Korea DPR 1
20/Jun Brazil - Côte d'Ivoire 1
21/Jun Portugal - Korea DPR 1
25/Jun Korea DPR - Côte d'Ivoire 2
25/Jun Portugal - Brazil 2

Brazil 9, Portugal 4, Côte d'Ivoire 4, Korea DPR 0

Group H

16/Jun Honduras - Chile 2
16/Jun Spain - Switzerland 1
21/Jun Chile - Switzerland 1
21/Jun Spain - Honduras 1
25/Jun Chile - Spain 2
25/Jun Switzerland - Honduras X

Spain 9, Chile 6, Switzerland 1, Honduras 1

Round of 16

26/Jun Mexico - Korea Republic 1
26/Jun England - Serbia X England PSO
27/Jun Germany - USA 1
27/Jun Argentina - France X Argentina PSO
28/Jun Netherlands - Paraguay 1
28/Jun Brazil - Chile 1
29/Jun Italy - Denmark 1
29/Jun Spain - Portugal 1

Quarter-finals

02/Jul Netherlands - Brazil X Brazil PSO
02/Jul Mexico - England X England PSO
03/Jul Argentina - Germany X Germany PSO
03/Jul Italy - Spain 2

Semi-finals

06/Jul Brazil - England 1
07/Jul Germany - Spain 2

Match for third place

10/Jul England - Germany X England PSO

Final

11/Jul Brazil - Spain X Spain PSO

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.