Showing posts with label 2006 FIFA World Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2006 FIFA World Cup. Show all posts

Friday, April 20, 2012

2006 FIFA World Cup preliminary draw: Errors in the European seeding?

Yes, 2006 and not 2014.

I had to find the seeding the last couple of qualifying draws in Europe (for both the EURO and the World Cup) for an article posted today.

The old UEFA national team coefficient was computed by simply dividing the total number of points in the last two qualifying competitions by the number of matches played.

There's something very strange in the 2006 FIFA world Cup preliminary seeding for the European zone (see pdf file from archive.org, since the original page now simply redirects to FIFA.com)

It says:

"The 51 countries will be classified on the basis of their results in the qualifying competitions for the 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan and EURO 2004."

There's no info on tie breakers if two or more associations have equal coefficients.

Paragraph 6.03 of the EURO 2008 regulations (the last qualifying draw with the old coefficient):

"If two or more associations have the same coefficient, the following criteria will be applied:

a) coefficient from the matches played in its most recent qualifying competition,
b) average goal difference,
c) average number of goals scored,
d) average number of away goals scored,
e) drawing of lots."


Applying these criteria, four teams will be in different pots:

Bulgaria would have replaced Poland in the second pot.
Ukraine would have replaced Austria in the third pot.

Ukraine have no reason to complain. They won their group and were the first European team to clinch qualification.

Group 2: Turkey, Denmark, Greece, Ukraine, Georgia, Albania, Kazakhstan

Bulgaria finished 3rd in their group, 9 points of the pace set by Croatia and Sweden.

Group 8: Sweden, Croatia, Bulgaria, Iceland, Hungary, Malta.

Poland and Austria were in the same group. Poland finished 2nd and qualified for the final tournament. Austria were 3rd, 9 points behind Poland.

Group 6: England, Poland, Austria, Wales, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan

This is how the groups would have looked like with the aforementioned criteria:

Group 2: Turkey, Denmark, Greece, Austria, Georgia, Albania, Kazakhstan
Group 6: England, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Wales, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan
Group 8: Sweden, Croatia, Poland, Iceland, Hungary, Malta

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Friday, December 10, 2010

2006 FIFA World Cup Germany

Number of interconfederational matches and wins for each confederation.

Source: FIFA.com

AFC

Games/Wins - 12/1

Wins:

Korea Republic - Togo 2 - 1

Other games:

Mexico - Iran 3 - 1
Portugal - Iran 2 - 0
Iran - Angola 1 - 1
Australia - Japan 3 - 1
Japan - Croatia 0 - 0
Japan - Brazil 1 - 4
France - Korea Republic 1 - 1
Switzerland - Korea Republic 2 - 0
Tunisia - Saudi Arabia 2 - 2
Saudi Arabia - Ukraine 0 - 4
Saudi Arabia - Spain 0 - 1

CAF

Games/Wins - 16/3

Wins:

Côte d'Ivoire - Serbia and Montenegro 3 - 2
Czech Republic - Ghana 0 - 2
Ghana - USA 2 - 1

Other games:

Argentina - Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1
Netherlands - Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1
Angola - Portugal 0 - 1
Mexico - Angola 0 - 0
Iran - Angola 1 - 1
Italy - Ghana 2 - 0
Korea Republic - Togo 2 - 1
Togo - Switzerland 0 - 2
Togo - France 0 - 2
Tunisia - Saudi Arabia 2 - 2
Spain - Tunisia 3 - 1
Ukraine - Tunisia 1 - 0
Brazil - Ghana 3 - 0

CONCACAF

Games/Wins - 13/1

Wins:

Mexico - Iran 3 - 1

Other games:

Germany - Costa Rica 4 - 2
Ecuador - Costa Rica 3 - 0
Costa Rica - Poland 1 - 2
Trinidad and Tobago - Sweden 0 - 0
England - Trinidad and Tobago 2 - 0
Paraguay - Trinidad and Tobago 2 - 0
Mexico - Angola 0 - 0
Portugal - Mexico 2 - 1
USA - Czech Republic 0 - 3
Italy - USA 1 - 1
Ghana - USA 2 - 1
Argentina - Mexico 2 - 1 aet

CONMEBOL

Games/Wins - 17/10

Wins:

Poland - Ecuador 0 - 2
Ecuador - Costa Rica 3 - 0
Paraguay - Trinidad and Tobago 2 - 0
Argentina - Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1
Argentina - Serbia and Montenegro 6 - 0
Brazil - Croatia 1 - 0
Brazil - Australia 2 - 0
Japan - Brazil 1 - 4
Argentina - Mexico 2 - 1 aet
Brazil - Ghana 3 - 0

Other games:

Ecuador - Germany 0 - 3
England - Paraguay 1 - 0
Sweden - Paraguay 1 - 0
Netherlands - Argentina 0 - 0
England - Ecuador 1 - 0
Germany - Argentina 1 - 1 (4 - 2 PSO)
Brazil - France 0 - 1

OFC

Games/Wins - 4/1

Wins:

Australia - Japan 3 - 1

Other games:

Brazil - Australia 2 - 0
Croatia - Australia 2 - 2
Italy - Australia 1 - 0

UEFA

Games/Wins - 34/22

Wins:

Germany - Costa Rica 4 - 2
Ecuador - Germany 0 - 3
Costa Rica - Poland 1 - 2
England - Paraguay 1 - 0
England - Trinidad and Tobago 2 - 0
Sweden - Paraguay 1 - 0
Netherlands - Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1
Angola - Portugal 0 - 1
Portugal - Iran 2 - 0
Portugal - Mexico 2 - 1
Italy - Ghana 2 - 0
USA - Czech Republic 0 - 3
Togo - Switzerland 0 - 2
Togo - France 0 - 2
Switzerland - Korea Republic 2 - 0
Spain - Tunisia 3 - 1
Saudi Arabia - Ukraine 0 - 4
Saudi Arabia - Spain 0 - 1
Ukraine - Tunisia 1 - 0
England - Ecuador 1 - 0
Italy - Australia 1 - 0
Brazil - France 0 - 1

Other games:

Poland - Ecuador 0 - 2
Trinidad and Tobago - Sweden 0 - 0
Argentina - Serbia and Montenegro 6 - 0
Netherlands - Argentina 0 - 0
Côte d'Ivoire - Serbia and Montenegro 3 - 2
Italy - USA 1 - 1
Czech Republic - Ghana 0 - 2
Brazil - Croatia 1 - 0
Japan - Croatia 0 - 0
Croatia - Australia 2 - 2
France - Korea Republic 1 - 1
Germany - Argentina 1 - 1 (4 - 2 PSO)

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Looking back at the 2006 World Cup seeding

Two days ago I read this article by Frank Giase:

World Cup seeding -- and pride -- at stake when the U.S. men's soccer team faces Mexico in qualifier

That was the interesting part:

"U.S. coach Bruce Arena did the smart thing. In the final three meaningless qualifiers -- a scoreless tie in Guatemala, a 3-0 loss in Costa Rica and a 2-0 home win over Panama -- Arena packed the roster with inexperienced players.

But the results, combined with a who-cares 1-1 tie in Scotland that November, dropped the United States below Mexico in the FIFA rankings. And when the World Cup draw rolled around a month later, it was Mexico that received a top seed."

Mr. Giase seems to think Mexico were seeded at the expense of USA.

That is not true. Mexico were 5th in the seeding table, the USA were 9th, behind France, Italy and Argentina.

The matches against Guatemala, Costa Rica and Scotland only influenced the November 2005 FIFA ranking. Obviously, the 1998 and 2002 World Cups and the December 2003 and December 2004 FIFA rankings were already set in stone.

Here's the November 2005 top 10:
 1 Brazil         841
2 Czech Republic 796
3 Netherlands 791
4 Argentina 774
5 France 772
6 Spain 771
7 Mexico 768
8 USA 766
9 England 757
10 Portugal 754
Full ranking on fifa.com.

In order to be seeded, USA had to be at least 4th. And even then, they would have replaced Argentina, not Mexico.

Even winning against Guatemala and Costa Rica, I don't think the US could have climbed so high. Here's why:

In 2005, results from the last 8 years were taken into account, so it was not very easy to move quickly through the higher part of the table.

On top of that, the calculation method used back then placed greater weight on the best seven results in each of the 8 years. The match vs. Scotland was a friendly,

From Wikipedia:

In order to prevent teams with more fixtures than this being given an advantage, the calculation initially considered only the best seven results of a team. To include further results an average of them must be calculated.

For example, if a team played twelve matches:

* The best seven of the 12 results were identified
* The total score for these seven matches was calculated (X)
* The total score for all 12 matches was calculated
* This total was divided by 12 and multiplied by seven (Y)
* The total for the seven best results was added to the seven "average" results (X+Y)
* This total (X+Y) was divided by two for the final score

The Gold Cup final tournament was played in July 2005. The USA registered wins against Cuba, Canada, Jamaica and Honduras, tied against Costa Rica and won after PSO against Panama.

Between November 2004 and September 3rd, 2005 (the match against Guatemala), the USA had played 7 World cup qualifiers, getting six wins (Trinidad and Tobago twice, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and Mexico) and a loss against Mexico.

Three friendlies with two wins (Colombia and Honduras) and loss to England.

Between November 2004 and November 2005 the USA have played 20 matches. With FIFA placing more weight on the best 7 results, getting the win in those three matches would have made little difference.

Let's assume the USA would have been 4th in November 2005.

In 2002, FIFA used the last three World Cups to compute the performance part. In 2006, they dropped the oldest one and it made no difference (see 2006 World Cup seeding post). With the USA 4th in the November ranking and with only two World Cup taken into account, the seeded teams would have been: Brazil, England, Spain, Germany, Mexico, France, Italy and USA. If we keep the 2002 seeding formula (using the last three World Cups), Argentina would return among the seeds.

Since FIFA announce the seeding formula after all the qualifiers are known, I don't think they would have dropped the oldest World Cup tournament from the equation.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Monday, November 5, 2007

CM 2006: Cum a ratat Danemarca o ocazie unica

Daca s-ar fi calificat la turneul final al CM 2006, Danemarca ar fi fost cap de serie in locul Argentinei.

Demonstratie:

Pentru a determina capii de serie pentru tragerea la sorti a grupelor turnelui final din Germania, FIFA a luat in calcul rezultatele de la ultimele doua turnee finale (Franta 1998 si Coreea de Sud/Japonia 2002) si clasamentele FIFA din ultimii trei ani (mai exact cele publicate in Decembrie 2003, Decembrie 2004 si Noiembrie 2005).

Principala modificare fata de sistemul folosit pentru CM 2002 era folosirea ultimelor doua turnee finale in loc de trei, dupa ce FIFA fusese criticata pentru luarea in calcul a unei competitii care avusese loc cu mai bine de 12 ani in urma.

Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru un turneu final?

Echipele care au trecut de faza grupelor (16 la numar) primesc intre 32 si 17 puncte. Campioana va primi 32 de puncte, iar echipa eliminata in optimi cu cea mai slaba linie de clasament general va primi 17 puncte. Echipele eliminate in faza grupelor (16 la numar pentru CM 1998 si CM 2002, respectiv 8 pentru CM 1994) sunt ordonate in functie de numarul puncte, golaveraj si goluri marcate. Echipele aflate in prima jumatate primesc 9 puncte, celelalte cate 8.

Pentru mai multe detalii, cititi articolul lui Paul Marcuccitti pe PlanetWorldCup.com.

Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru clasamentul FIFA?

Echipele sunt ordonate in functie de pozitia in clasamentul FIFA. Cea mai bine clasata primeste 32 de puncte, cea mai slab clasata doar un punct.


Iata cum arata clasamentul folosit pentru determinarea capilor de serie la turneul final din Germania:


1 Brazilia 31 32 31.7 1 32 1 32 1 32 32.0 63.7
2 Anglia 24 27 26.0 8 25 8 25 9 24 24.7 50.7
3 Spania 9 28 21.7 3 30 5 28 6 27 28.3 50.0
4 Germania 26 31 29.3 12 22 19 19 16 19 20.0 49.3
5 Mexic 20 22 21.3 7 26 7 26 7 26 26.0 47.3
6 Franta 32 8 16.0 2 31 2 31 5 28 30.0 46.0
7 Argentina 27 9 15.0 5 28 3 30 4 29 29.0 44.0
8 Italia 28 18 21.3 10 24 10 23 12 22 23.0 44.3
-----------------------------------------------------------
9 SUA 8 25 19.3 11 23 11 22 8 25 23.3 42.7
10 Olanda 29 - 9.7 4 29 6 27 3 30 28.7 38.3
11 Coreea de Sud 8 29 22.0 22 16 22 17 29 13 15.3 37.3
12 Japonia 8 24 18.7 29 12 17 20 15 20 17.3 36.0
13 Suedia - 20 13.3 19 19 13 21 14 21 20.3 33.7
14 Croatia 30 9 16.0 20 18 23 16 20 17 17.0 33.0
15 Paraguay 19 17 17.7 22 17 30 12 30 12 13.7 31.3
16 Cehia - - 0.0 6 27 4 29 2 31 29.0 29.0
17 Portugalia - 9 6.0 17 21 9 24 10 23 22.7 28.7
18 Costa Rica - 9 6.0 17 20 27 14 21 16 16.7 22.7
19 Arabia Saudita 8 8 8.0 26 14 28 13 32 11 12.7 20.7
20 Polonia - 8 5.3 25 15 25 15 23 15 15.0 20.3
21 Iran 9 - 3.0 28 13 20 18 19 18 16.3 19.3
22 Tunisia 8 8 8.0 45 8 35 11 28 14 11.0 19.0
23 Ecuador - 9 6.0 37 11 39 10 37 9 10.0 16.0
24 Serbia-Muntenegru 23 - 7.7 41 10 46 8 47 6 8.0 15.7
25 Elvetia - - 0.0 44 9 51 7 36 10 8.7 8.7
26 Ucraina - - 0.0 60 7 57 6 40 8 7.0 7.0
27 Coasta de Fildes - - 0.0 70 5 40 9 41 7 7.0 7.0
28 Australia - - 0.0 82 3 58 5 49 5 4.3 4.3
29 Trinidad-Tobago - - 0.0 70 6 63 4 51 3 4.3 4.3
30 Ghana - - 0.0 78 4 77 2 50 4 3.3 3.3
31 Angola - - 0.0 83 2 72 3 62 1 2.0 2.0
32 Togo - - 0.0 94 1 89 1 56 2 1.3 1.3


Cum ar fi aratat clasamentul daca s-ar fi luat in calcul trei turnee finale in loc de doua - deci ar fi fost inclus in calcule si turneul final CM 1994?


1 Brazilia 32 31 32 31.7 1 32 1 32 1 32 32.0 63.7
2 Spania 25 9 28 21.2 3 30 5 28 6 27 28.3 49.5
3 Germania 28 26 31 28.8 12 22 19 19 16 19 20.0 48.8
4 Mexic 20 20 22 21.0 7 26 7 26 7 26 26.0 47.0
5 Italia 31 28 18 23.5 10 24 10 23 12 22 23.0 46.5
6 Argentina 23 27 9 17.3 5 28 3 30 4 29 29.0 46.3
7 Anglia - 24 27 21.5 8 25 8 25 9 24 24.7 46.2
8 Franta - 32 8 14.7 2 31 2 31 5 28 30.0 44.7
--------------------------------------------------------------
9 Olanda 26 29 - 14.0 4 29 6 27 3 30 28.7 42.7
10 SUA 19 8 25 18.3 11 23 11 22 8 25 23.3 41.7
11 Suedia 30 - 20 15.0 19 19 13 21 14 21 20.3 35.3
12 Coreea de Sud 9 8 29 18.7 22 16 22 17 29 13 15.3 34.0
13 Japonia - 8 24 14.7 29 12 17 20 15 20 17.3 32.0
14 Croatia - 30 9 14.5 20 18 23 16 20 17 17.0 31.5
15 Cehia - - - 0.0 6 27 4 29 2 31 29.0 29.0
16 Paraguay - 19 17 14.8 22 17 30 12 30 12 13.7 28.7
17 Portugalia - - 9 4.5 17 21 9 24 10 23 22.7 27.2
18 Arabia Saudita 21 8 8 10.2 26 14 28 13 32 11 12.7 22.8
19 Costa Rica - - 9 4.5 17 20 27 14 21 16 16.7 21.2
20 Iran - 9 - 3.0 28 13 20 18 19 18 16.3 19.3
21 Polonia - - 8 4.0 25 15 25 15 23 15 15.0 19.0
22 Tunisia - 8 8 6.7 45 8 35 11 28 14 11.0 17.7
23 Serbia-Muntenegru - 23 - 7.7 41 10 46 8 47 6 8.0 15.7
24 Ecuador - - 9 4.5 37 11 39 10 37 9 10.0 14.5
25 Elvetia 18 - - 3.0 44 9 51 7 36 10 8.7 11.7
26 Ucraina - - - 0.0 60 7 57 6 40 8 7.0 7.0
27 Coasta de Fildes - - - 0.0 70 5 40 9 41 7 7.0 7.0
28 Australia - - - 0.0 82 3 58 5 49 5 4.3 4.3
29 Trinidad-Tobago - - - 0.0 70 6 63 4 51 3 4.3 4.3
30 Ghana - - - 0.0 78 4 77 2 50 4 3.3 3.3
31 Angola - - - 0.0 83 2 72 3 62 1 2.0 2.0
32 Togo - - - 0.0 94 1 89 1 56 2 1.3 1.3


Avem aceiasi capi de serie, deci s-a putut renunta fara probleme la cel de-al treilea turneu final.

Totusi, comitetul executiv al FIFA n-ar fi renuntat atat de usor la cel de-al treilea turneu final daca Danemarca s-ar fi calificat la CM 2006. Danemarca a terminat pe pozitia a treia in grupa a doua la 3 puncte de Ucraina si la un singur punct de Turcia, care a pierdut barajul cu Elvetia. Sa presupunem ca Danemarca s-ar fi calificat totusi la turneul final, in dauna Elvetiei. Iata cum ar fi aratat clasamentul capilor de serie luand in calcul doar ultimele doua turnee finale:


1 Brazilia 31 32 31.7 1 32 1 32 1 32 32.0 63.7
2 Anglia 24 27 26.0 8 25 8 25 9 24 24.7 50.7
3 Spania 9 28 21.7 3 30 5 28 6 27 28.3 50.0
4 Germania 26 31 29.3 12 22 19 18 16 18 19.3 48.7
5 Mexic 20 22 21.3 7 26 7 26 7 26 26.0 47.3
6 Franta 32 8 16.0 2 31 2 31 5 28 30.0 46.0
7 Italia 28 18 21.3 10 24 10 23 12 22 23.0 44.3
8 Danemarca 25 23 23.7 13 21 14 20 13 21 20.7 44.3
-----------------------------------------------------------
9 Argentina 27 9 15.0 5 28 3 30 4 29 29.0 44.0
10 SUA 8 25 19.3 11 23 11 22 8 25 23.3 42.7
11 Olanda 29 - 9.7 4 29 6 27 3 30 28.7 38.3
12 Coreea de Sud 8 29 22.0 22 16 22 16 29 12 14.7 36.7
13 Japonia 8 24 18.7 29 11 17 19 15 19 16.3 35.0
14 Suedia - 20 13.3 19 18 13 21 14 20 19.7 33.0
15 Croatia 30 9 16.0 20 17 23 15 20 16 16.0 32.0
16 Paraguay 19 17 17.7 22 15 30 11 30 11 12.3 30.0
17 Cehia - - 0.0 6 27 4 29 2 31 29.0 29.0
18 Portugalia - 9 6.0 17 20 9 24 10 23 22.3 28.3
19 Costa Rica - 9 6.0 17 19 27 13 21 15 15.7 21.7
20 Arabia Saudita 8 8 8.0 26 13 28 12 32 10 11.7 19.7
21 Polonia - 8 5.3 25 14 25 14 23 14 14.0 19.3
22 Iran 9 - 3.0 28 12 20 17 19 17 15.3 18.3
23 Tunisia 8 8 8.0 45 8 35 10 28 13 10.3 18.3
24 Ecuador - 9 6.0 37 10 39 9 37 9 9.3 15.3
25 Serbia-Muntenegru 23 - 7.7 41 9 46 7 47 6 7.3 15.0
26 Ucraina - - 0.0 60 7 57 6 40 8 7.0 7.0
27 Coasta de Fildes - - 0.0 70 5 40 8 41 7 6.7 6.7
28 Australia - - 0.0 82 3 58 5 49 5 4.3 4.3
29 Trinidad-Tobago - - 0.0 70 6 63 4 51 3 4.3 4.3
30 Ghana - - 0.0 78 4 77 2 50 4 3.3 3.3
31 Angola - - 0.0 83 2 72 3 62 1 2.0 2.0
32 Togo - - 0.0 94 1 89 1 56 2 1.3 1.3


Danemarca ar fi fost cap de serie in locul Argentinei.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.