tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16319976167281415212026-03-15T09:00:08.312+00:00FIFA ranking, seedings and simulationsEdgarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comBlogger1883125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-68865930292786460892026-03-06T05:48:00.000+00:002026-03-06T05:48:14.677+00:00

Hi everyone, for quite a while I've been considering whether I wanted to continue posting to this site given that it takes quite some personal time and there's seemingly not so much interest. Initially I had suggested to do updates together with others, but even though I contacted a couple of people I unfortunately didn't receive any replies at all. So today I have taken the final decision to

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-45936352406033689652025-12-20T06:06:00.001+00:002025-12-20T06:47:01.411+00:00

While I don't see any signs of a FIFA ranking being published in January 2026, looking back at previous years with African Cup of Nations taking place in January, I expect we'll have a ranking being published, probably on 22 January 2026 after the final. To date we've had a handful of friendlies, the conclusion of the MSG Prime Minister's Cup, and qualifiers for the Arab Cup and the final

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-10292846317868434712025-12-20T06:00:00.005+00:002025-12-20T06:04:18.301+00:00

Here's the point exchanges for the matches already played, and the point exchanges for the fixtures yet to be played.ResultsDate                                              Tournament                 I  R       We

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-90891513607960881762025-12-13T13:24:00.015+00:002025-12-13T16:02:11.203+00:00

Following on from the earlier post http://casalbero.com/Content/default.aspx?2025/12/2026-world-cup-10000-simulations-7.html, here's the remaining data, and some extras.Group Stage"Qual" represents the percentage in the simulation that the country qualified for the round of 32, "elim3" represents the percentage in the simulation that the country finished in third place and didn't qualify for the round of

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-87324601772335530972025-12-13T10:09:00.013+00:002025-12-13T10:18:52.860+00:00

Morocco is hosting the 25th African Cup of Nations from 21 December to 18 January, and of course they are favorites to win. But what does the simulation tell us?Group StageGroup A                         1st     2nd     3rd     4th    Qual   Elim3 NotQualMorocco 

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-21081036156743908062025-12-07T14:07:00.002+00:002025-12-07T14:08:37.980+00:00

That's the craziest draw I ever witnessed, and I had to wait until around 02:15 local time to before I saw the full results. So what does it all mean? Well, after adapting my software to be able to deal with the combinations for third place I've been able to run the first simulation, but it's not ideal yet. For now I base first/second/third/fourth place on points, goal difference and goals scored

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-70271082798223823032025-11-20T15:36:00.004+00:002025-11-20T15:36:37.681+00:00

Following today's draw, here's the result of the simulation run.NOTE: the "SimWin" represents the percentage of the 10000 simulation runs that the team won the match. The "win %" represents what percentage of the time the team won when it reached the final.Path ASemi Final                        SimWinWales        &

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-26983502638875843032025-11-20T15:02:00.002+00:002025-11-20T15:02:04.671+00:00

Following today's draw, here's the result of the simulation run.NOTE: the "SimWin" represents the percentage of the 10000 simulation runs that the team won the match. The "win %" represents what percentage of the time the team won when it reached the final.Pathway 1Semi Final                      SimWinJamaica        &nbsp

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-7358769079179552272025-11-19T05:08:00.011+00:002025-11-19T12:54:42.510+00:00

Here's the preview of the FIFA Ranking that will be published later today. There may be exclusions of friendly matches, especially for Tunisia perhaps. Further below what it might mean for the seeding pots.Pos   Country                          Rnk Pts   +/-      +/-  1   Spain 

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-50917967145736770562025-11-10T13:27:00.002+00:002025-11-12T05:14:14.516+00:00

Here's the expected ranking given the expected results posted earlier today.Update 2025-11-12 05:13 UTC: Fixed match for 14 November Slovakia which was listed as being played against Luxembourg, but will be against Northern Ireland.Pos   Country                          Rnk Pts   +/-      +/- 

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-68937081025309668832025-11-10T13:24:00.003+00:002025-11-12T05:15:48.120+00:00

Below are the expected results for matches as far as these are known (to me) and in my database.Update 2025-11-12 05:13 UTC: Fixed match for 14 November Slovakia which was listed as being played against Luxembourg, but will be against Northern Ireland.Date                                        &

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-71396576588086462392025-10-23T06:36:00.002+00:002025-10-23T06:37:08.171+00:00

So Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Nigeria made it through, the latter by one less goal scored against them, to have a chance to qualify for the Intercontinental qualifiers to be held in March 2026. So in terms of the simulation which team is likely to qualify?Semi FinalsNigeria v Gabon                         W

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-26973739514934787092025-10-18T10:42:00.001+00:002025-10-18T10:42:01.375+00:00

In the AFC Fifth round the United Arab Emirates will face off against Iraq for a chance to qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs. With there being just 10 places between the two in the latest FIFA Ranking, we expect a close-run affair. Below are the results of the 10000 simulation runs, with Iraq having a slightly better chance as we'd expect:Iraq            &

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-90396791236868096672025-10-18T10:16:00.000+00:002025-10-18T10:16:54.272+00:00

Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.So it would look like currently Panama, Jamaica and Honduras are slight favorites to win their groups and qualify for the finals, with Costa Rica having the best chances to upset that, followed by Curaçao. Surinam and Guatemala are still in the running for the Intercontinental qualifying spot. Comparing this to the previous

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-36586554411773404032025-10-18T09:34:00.006+00:002025-10-18T09:54:41.879+00:00

Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.Qualifying GroupsGroup A - Germany and Slovakia swapped with Germany now having the better chances again. Northern Ireland look pretty certain to reach the playoffs.Group B - Switzerland are odds on favorite to win the group, and further below Kosovo and Sweden swapped places, but Sweden are certain to reach the

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-5324115429371578092025-10-15T12:03:00.002+00:002025-10-15T13:30:10.325+00:00

So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the 28 November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, given simulation yet to be published but run for the purposes of this determination, what the seeding pots will likely look like.NOTE 1: This doesn't include matches still to be scheduled or not yet in my database. For example, Brazil's

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-23224357282730082112025-10-15T11:17:00.010+00:002025-10-18T04:48:31.034+00:00

Here's a sneak peek of how I expect the ranking to look next week Thursday October 23. Argentina is back in 2nd place, and due to dropping points against Japan Brazil drops to 7th place with the Netherlands going the other way. This was predicted earlier (http://casalbero.com/Content/default.aspx?2025/09/fifa-ranking-september-2025-sneak-peak.html), but, maybe a bit earlier than expected. In the top 50

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-13579778341869819812025-10-05T07:51:00.002+00:002025-10-05T08:03:01.701+00:00

Well, well, well, that makes things a lot more interesting in Group C following the decision to award Lesotho the points for the 21 March 2025 match that initially ended in a 2-0 win for South Africa but has now been awarded 0-3 to Lesotho.  South Africa was firm favorite with 96.84% of the simulations going their way, but it is now a four-horse race again. Saying that, with an away match

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-81754686982453855822025-10-04T05:47:00.004+00:002025-10-05T07:35:21.433+00:00

Here's the expected ranking given the expected results posted earlier today.Updated 2025-10-05 07:33 UTC taking into account the awarded match (0-3) between South Africa and Lesotho from 2025-03-21.Pos   Country                          Rnk Pts   +/-      +/-  1   Spain   

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-57373260446789796122025-10-04T05:44:00.009+00:002025-10-05T07:36:14.145+00:00

Below are the expected results for matches as far as these are known (to me) and in my database.Updated 2025-10-05 07:33 UTC taking into account the awarded match (0-3) between South Africa and Lesotho from 2025-03-21.Date Tournament I R WExp Win Draw Loss 2025-10-06 St. Vincent & Gren v Cuba Friendly 2025 10 X

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-68248995471643900272025-09-20T15:00:00.001+00:002025-09-21T05:50:15.035+00:00

So here's the latest prediction (not a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like. There might of course be minor changes from friendly matches that will still be planned for October/November 2025.NOTE 1: the "+/-" columns here refer to

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-29281525302424261522025-09-20T13:41:00.004+00:002025-09-20T13:41:30.087+00:00

Qualifying GroupsHere's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.In Group A Germany still wins the group the most times, but it's percentage is down a whopping 20% following their loss to Slovakia, while the latter's percentage to win the group has now doubled.In Group B Switzerland's chances to qualify directly has increased significantly with Sweden's loss away

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-13523927824081482122025-09-20T08:14:00.002+00:002025-09-20T08:16:18.294+00:00

Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round. In Group A, Panama is still favored to qualify for the finals, but their chances have dropped given their results to date, with El Salvador and Surinam's chances having increased, the latter most significantly. In Group B Jamaica's chances have increased quite a bit, and Curaçao's position in second place has strengthened.

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-78625255763977330402025-09-20T06:56:00.005+00:002025-09-20T08:16:36.476+00:00

Here's the simulations for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying for CAF. With just two match windows left only Morocco and Tunisia have qualified, so there's a lot to play for. For Cape Verde Islands fans there's certainly a lot of nail-biting left to do, but it looks like this time will be their best chance ever, having been close before.Group A                &

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-4017487204023543892025-09-14T03:54:00.007+00:002025-10-15T11:19:48.958+00:00

Here's a sneak preview of what I expect the ranking will look like that will be published on Thursday. As always expect some small adjustments here and there from matches included/excluded.The big changes are of course that Argentina has dropped to third place, and Spain is the new leader. A little bit lower down Brazil has also lost some points, and with them having finished their qualifiers we

Homerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16072034699548339657noreply@blogger.com11