Football Rankings

RIP

2026-03-15T09:00:08.312+00:00

RIP

I've been reading your blog since 2018. Thank ...

2026-03-06T11:44:07.697+00:00

I've been reading your blog since 2018. Thank you! It's been a great ride!

If you ever want to sell the site, I might consider making an offer.

This was really sad news.

2026-03-06T09:24:38.837+00:00

This was really sad news.

Included from last ranking 2025-11-13 Bangladesh 2...

2026-01-24T04:25:06.895+00:00

Included from last ranking
2025-11-13 Bangladesh 2-2 Nepal

Not included
2025-12-16 Egypt 2-1 Nigeria
2025-12-18 Tunisia 2-1 Botswana
2025-12-21 Peru 2-1 Bolivia

Cool! Yes, that's the nice thing, we can proba...

2025-12-23T05:15:34.913+00:00

Cool! Yes, that's the nice thing, we can probably extrapolate more data out of this data.

The percentages above show the likelihood of the 3...

2025-12-22T04:49:17.499+00:00

The percentages above show the likelihood of the 3rd place team in each group qualifying for the Round of 32 as follows

B 71.3
D 70.99
A 70.21
G 69.31
F 68.64
E 68.05
C 66.84
K 64.74
—————————
I 64.64
L 64.38
J 62.35
H 58.55

Hi Ted, don't know if I totally understand wha...

2025-12-13T10:20:39.231+00:00

Hi Ted, don't know if I totally understand what you mean, but let me complete the dataset that I have from the simulation (probably before end of today) and then please let me know what you're missing. It's been a busy week at work and I also wanted to publish the 2025 African Cup of Nations simulation.

Thanks so much Homer ! One request I have dependin...

2025-12-10T02:31:24.813+00:00

Thanks so much Homer ! One request I have depending on the time needed is to see a split of 2nd in group and 3rd in group while progressing for each of the 48 teams. The total Qual less GW number is over 50% in some cases but will be in very different ratios for high ranked teams (2nd >> 3Q) and low ranked teams (2nd << 3Q).

Group D and G runners up play each other in the

For path A it's clear that this isn't a wa...

2025-11-21T11:59:51.362+00:00

For path A it's clear that this isn't a walkover for Italy and I think the chances of them missing out for a third World Cup in a row are significant, because Wales away in an eventual final is going to be tough.

Probably it'll be Ukraine v Poland in the final for path B, and it will then be interesting to see if Ukraine will give up home advantage by having the matched

;-)

2025-11-21T10:37:53.303+00:00

;-)

My heart says: Wales Ukraine Romania Ireland My h...

2025-11-21T06:26:57.411+00:00

My heart says:
Wales
Ukraine
Romania
Ireland

My head says:
Italy
Poland
Turkey
Denmark

I think DR Congo will walk it in. They’d have to h...

2025-11-21T06:23:57.473+00:00

I think DR Congo will walk it in. They’d have to have a horror to lose to Jamaica.

And I hope Iraq get thru as I know the coaching staff but it’s the more even side of the draw.

Can confirm that Archie Thompson (scorer of 13 goa...

2025-11-21T06:21:30.461+00:00

Can confirm that Archie Thompson (scorer of 13 goals that night) remembers each one and won’t let anyone forget it. Great bloke but don’t you dare miscount of of those goals he scored. 😂

;-) I suspect some issues with sites reporting the...

2025-11-21T04:37:15.025+00:00

;-) I suspect some issues with sites reporting the score. It wasn't quite like the situation I was "watching" live on the Internet when Australia bean American Samoa 31-0 in 2001 when people were losing track of the score, but in IT we often have network issues also, so a goal may have been missed.

This will sound weird but it also happened to me h...

2025-11-21T00:11:06.400+00:00

This will sound weird but it also happened to me haha. I had put a Trinidad and Tobago win, and unless this is some Mandela effect, I also recall seeing a match scheduled between Angola and Guinea-Bissau, only to see later that it had changed to Zambia.

Wow, that doesn't often happen to me... I ente...

2025-11-20T16:03:52.914+00:00

Wow, that doesn't often happen to me... I entered a wrong match, and I entered a wrong score...

2025-11-12 Tunisia v Mauritania (not included by FIFA)
2025-11-13 Bangladesh v Afghanistan (not included by FIFA)
2025-11-17 Qatar v Zimbabwe (not included by FIFA)
2025-11-18 Trinidad and Tobago v Bermuda (2-2, not 2-1 as I had entered)
2025-11-18 Angola v Zambia (

Yes, that was a mistake in my database, and would ...

2025-11-12T11:55:28.810+00:00

Yes, that was a mistake in my database, and would have had impact on the simulation percentages also. Corrected now. Thanks!

Is there a possibility that one of the three frien...

2025-11-12T10:21:17.885+00:00

Is there a possibility that one of the three friendlies will be treated as a friendly outside the International Match Calendar window and given a K factor of 5?

Probably not, but difficult to know which of the 3...

2025-11-12T05:17:52.568+00:00

Probably not, but difficult to know which of the 3 FIFA might disregard, so for now all 3 listed so we can at least see the potential point exchanges.

Slovakia v Northern Ireland is on 14/11/25, but if...

2025-11-11T16:39:49.972+00:00

Slovakia v Northern Ireland is on 14/11/25, but if looks like you have Slovakia v Luxembourg on that date.

All 3 Tunisia's matches will count for ranking...

2025-11-11T14:04:15.971+00:00

All 3 Tunisia's matches will count for ranking with a K factor of 10? There's no limit to how many matches a team can play within one window to count for rankings?

Hi Ted, thanks for your suggestion. While this is ...

2025-11-07T05:04:19.044+00:00

Hi Ted, thanks for your suggestion. While this is not too difficult to do, at the moment my software cannot yet handle this, and I fear I won't have time to do this before the qualifiers are complete as I'm working on another more urgent project at the moment. So sorry. Hopefully next time such a situation occurs.

Thanks for the Analysis. I am curious whether in t...

2025-11-03T12:09:04.343+00:00

Thanks for the Analysis. I am curious whether in the next few weeks you can split the Runner Up %s into the 2 important parts - (a) RunnerUp and Qual for ICP and (b) RunnerUp and Eliminated.

Thanks Rodrigo, I'll have a look at that.

2025-10-27T13:37:52.223+00:00

Thanks Rodrigo, I'll have a look at that.

Sorry I meant "going into the October window&...

2025-10-26T17:52:14.450+00:00

Sorry I meant "going into the October window".