Friday, June 10, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots (10 June 2011)

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Next update: June 24th, 2011.

Only Romania and Estonia can move to a different pot. Albania, although scheduled to play Argentina, are already locked in pot 4 (win or lose).

Romania could still climb to pot 3 with a win against Paraguay tomorrow.

Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 4 with two wins against Chile and Uruguay.

Not very likely to see either happening though.

Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.

Switzerland will be 1 point behind Slovakia (last team in pot 2), while Bulgaria will be 4 points behind Hungary (last team in pot 3).

Montenegro missed a huge opportunity. They could have been in the first pot with a win against Bulgaria, but managed only a draw.

Rank - Team - Points

1 Spain                    1588
 2 Netherlands              1542
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1146
 5 Portugal                 1076
 6 Italy                    1059
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Norway                    972
 9 Greece                    959
--------------------------------
10 France                    920
11 Montenegro                915
12 Russia                    914
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   857
15 Slovenia                  833
16 Turkey                    820
17 Serbia                    797
18 Slovakia                  779
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19 Switzerland               778
20 Israel                    771
21 Republic of Ireland       752
22 Belgium                   691
23 Czech Republic            670
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Belarus                   636
26 Ukraine                   620
27 Hungary                   603
--------------------------------
28 Bulgaria                  599
29 Romania                   594
30 Albania                   558
31 Georgia                   530
32 Lithuania                 526
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          498
35 Austria                   479
36 Poland                    474
--------------------------------
37 Armenia                   462
38 Estonia                   437
39 Finland                   419
40 Cyprus                    398
41 Latvia                    388
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             338
44 Azerbaijan                282
45 Faroe Islands             273
--------------------------------
45 Wales                     273
47 Liechtenstein             253
48 Iceland                   244
49 Kazakhstan                231
50 Luxembourg                213
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Georgia, Lithuania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Estonia, Finland, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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62 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 10, 2011 at 9:13 AM

    So this means that Wales are almost certainly in the bottom pot then (with no games to play until the World Cup rankings are decided?)

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    Yes, they will certainly be in the bottom pot.

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    "Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 4, not 3"

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    'Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 3 with two wins against Chile and Uruguay.' That's pot 4, not 3. :)

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    Thanks, fixed now.

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    Oops, that what you Anon. said.. Sorry. :)

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    What do you think about this:

    http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/67/world-cup/2011/06/06/2520394/uefa-announces-qualifying-pots-for-2014-world-cup

    Is this mean seedings are already defined?

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    So if Romania beat Paraguay, Hungary goes down, right? Hopefully it won't happen.

    I saw the Montenegro-Bulgaria game. I guess we Hungarians can say thanks to Montenegro for not letting the Bulgarians win this one. They would have gone up, too, no?

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    @Anonymous

    Here's my answer regarding Goal.com.

    Only Estonia and Romania can still move to a higher pot, the other teams are locked.

    @Dönci

    Yes, you really should say thanks :) Bulgaria would have climbed in the third pot with a win against Montenegro.

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    This article is a fake, the pots are not official yet, as they will be based on the July FIFA ranking. And the announcement will be done by FIFA, not UEFA, since the World Cup is organized by FIFA.

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    I was sure too it was fake, but as far as I know goal.com is serious site.

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    This seems to sum Wales' luck up perfectly. A late surge by the Faroes to shoot up hundreds of points in a month to take our (Wales') place.

    However much I look at it I don't want it to be true.

    BTW: Walesonline used your site for an article here (uncredited of course!): http://www.walesonline.co.uk/footballnation/football-in-wales/2011/06/08/wales-face-doomsday-scenario-as-world-cup-draw-looms-91466-28845884/

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    @mirkobolesan

    I'm not surprised. British papers do this all the time and when I write them about this, they don't answer.

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    pot for armenia wtf?? so lithunia lose to faroes but stay in pot 4 while armenia drop to pot 5 for losing to russia away??

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    Can you please post the July rankings without friendlies?
    I guess In UEFA at least the first 20 teams could be in pot 1 without friendlies...

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    @lev

    That's how the system works.

    @Amir

    I promised it will be a bit later today.

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    Faroe and Wales have both 273 points and same position 45.

    Who will be on pot 5 and who on pot 6?

    I imagine the possibility of a quite weak group like:
    Norway, Montenegro, Belarus, Albania, Faroe, San Marino...

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    Does Hungary stay in pot 3 if Paraguay-Romania is a draw?

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    @Amir

    Here you go.

    July 2011 ranking without friendlies

    @Anonymous

    As I said, Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.

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    @Anonymous

    Romania need to win - any other result means Hungary will be safe in Pot 3.

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    Lev, away doesn't matter, but still Armenia deserved a higher pot. Edgar, is it possible that Armenia would be in a higher pot if some team will schedule an unsuccesfull friendly. About Goal.com, the news about it was on BBC, CNN and other important news channels ;)

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    Yes, it is possible. However, how likely are European teams to play in July?

    Then shame on BBC, CNN and other important news channels :)

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    @mirkobolesan

    I'll say... I wrote to Wales Online and they've included a link to my blog in that article. :)

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    He he. That draw in Belarus has cost France dear. I won't be laughing if England draw them though. I've watched France dominate England my whole life.

    Ideal group:

    England, Turkey, Hungary, Lithuania, Moldova, San Marino

    Hardest group:

    England, France, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Cyprus, Wales.

    Remember I'm looking at this from an English point of view. Ireland and Scotland will raise their level agaist England, and England have a supreme record against Turkey, best of any nation, have played them 10 times and haven't even conceded a goal while scoring 31 in return. And yes, I rate the Faroe Islands over Moldova. Especially as the Faroe Islands have had a lot of success against other British sides.

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    'Switzerland will be 1 point behind Slovakia (last team in pot 2), while Bulgaria will be 4 points behind Hungary (last team in pot 4).' That's pot 3. :)

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    hi
    this is sooooo different to how i expected

    and NORWAY POT 1!!!!! should be in pot 3!!!

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    Polish point of view;

    Grecja, Czarnogóra, Izrael, POLSKA, Wyspy Owcze, San Marino

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    Norway beat Portugal,Iceland and Cyprus, tied against Denmark and lost to Portugal which is our only loss this year and we also are tied in first in our Euro Qualifying Group. We secured our place in the top pot with a 1-0 win against Lithuania last week

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    Norwegian best group:

    Norway,Slovenia,Belarus,Lithuania,Faroe Islands,San Marino

    Worst:
    Norway,France,Czech Republic,Scotland, FYR Macedonia,Iceland

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    the worst team:
    norway, slovenia, hungary, albania, faroe & san marino
    the best:
    spain, france, switzerland, romania, latvia & wales
    the biggest coincerdince:
    england, france, ireland, scotland, faroe & wales

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    i think theese 13 'll get through:

    spain holland germany england croatia portugal italy greece france sweden switzerland serbia & russia
    almost 10:
    denmark slovakia,montenegro turkey ireland slovenia czech rep. belguim norway & romania

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    edgar
    do you have an article like this for last year?

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    Paraguay beat Romania -> Hungary stay in pot 3!

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    bare in mind 1 group will only have 5 teams in group 9


    i still think mostly about norway

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    Paraguay has beaten romania

    (by the way i didn't really mind weather they won or not)

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    still estonia v uraguay to go remember last time on 25 march estonia won 2-0 it was fluke.

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    best england group:
    slovenia hungary lithuania faroe & san marino

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    I'm delighted that they added a link Edgar. You do a lot of hard work on this site, very interesting stuff.

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    Sadly it was looking like Wales were to be in the 6th pot for some time. Although I hadn't banked on the Faroes leap frogging us.

    Edgar, it's my belief that a country like Wales should be organising "winnable" friendlies against teams at their level. And not marquee games such as Croatia, Sweden, Australia etc

    And then if our ranking improves, so should the standard of our opposition.

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    as I said before i'm not welsh. but I agree with Stuart

    i can't belive that no one has commented about Norway apart from me!
    Edgar, is it possible that Norway could move to pot 2 in a friendly or something?

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    Hungary is the 3rd pot :) That is funny. I live in Hungary, I saw the matches against Luxembourg, and San Marino. We played awful :)

    My suggestiun is: we need to fix some match against Vatikan, San Marino, Liechtenstein, or Vanautu, Grenada, etc.

    And finally we will be the 2nd pot :)

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    I have a bad dream :)

    1: Netherland
    2: Russia
    3: Hungary
    4: Scotland or Romania
    5: Finland
    6: Wales

    And Hungary will get the 6.th place :)

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    no -no Hungary wil win FIFA World Cup 2014

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    Will someone explain the Wales/ Faroes disparity? Same points different pot... Don't understand...

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    Edgar explained it in the beginning of the post:

    "Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total."

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    Faroes have made great ground the past few months.. Great management team headed by Brian Kerr - seem to be a tight hard working team.. a move up to pot 5 would be well deserved..

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    @Anonymous

    I don't understand your question.

    @stuart

    Yes, that's the proper approach.

    @Anonymous

    I don't think Norway would agree to play a friendly :)

    @Anonymous

    Playing against minnows would only hurt your ranking.

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    edgar which question did u not undestand?

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    Hi Edgar

    Tanks for a very interesting blog. I come from the Faroe Islands but study in Denmark. I have informed the Faroese FA and Faroese media about Faroe Islands luck and send a link to your blog.

    I tried to make the calculation for the next ranking list before I found your blog. In my calculation Faroe Islands were 3 points behind Wales. I am not a professional in calculation, so I guess and hope your calculation are the right one :)

    Jákup Emil

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    Which date will FIFA announce the next list of FIFA World Ranking?

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    Are there any rules for how fast you can arrange an official friendly match. If there is no rule for that, then Wales could arrange a match against a weak opponent for example from the Caribian really fast. A draw in a friendly would be enough for Wales to past the Faroe Islands in the ranking and end up in pot 5 instead of pot 6.

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    30 july is the date when fifa will anounce the next fifa ranking

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    http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html

    29 june is the date

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    30 july

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    @Anonymous

    I didn't understand this question: "do you have an article like this for last year?"

    @Jákup

    You're welcome. See here more details regarding the differences between Faroe Islands and Wales.

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    well an article about the pots for 2012 european cup?

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    You mean this?

    EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (20 November 2009)

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    A nice mention for your site on the BBC today - http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/14143711.stm

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    Haha got to laugh at that article.

    The Faroe Islands are lobbying Fifa to include decimal points in their calculations - something which would see them leapfrog Wales into pot five.

    Almost like they're being underhanded in trying to have the same criteria for every team...

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    Thanks - I know about it - John Sinnott sent me the link.

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    Iceland POV:

    Norway, Slovenia, Israel, Northern Ireland, Faroe Islands, ICELAND

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    Anonymous said...

    I have a bad dream :)

    1: Netherland
    2: Russia
    3: Hungary
    4: Scotland or Romania
    5: Finland
    6: Wales

    And Hungary will get the 6.th place :)
    June 14, 2011 1:38 PM

    ** very close!! now how about some lottery numbers **

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